Cue that famous scene from "Braveheart."

"Hold. Hold. HOLDDDD….."

After passing on Scottie Scheffler at his pre-tournament odds to win the Texas Children’s Houston Open, after fading him following the first round, after shaking my head as he took control of the tournament at the halfway point – now is the time to back the world No. 1.

Yes, the third round at Memorial Park Golf Course didn’t go as planned for Scheffler, as he became a bystander while Min Woo Lee grabbed control of the proceedings heading into the final round. His 1-under 69 turned a one-shot lead into a five-shot deficit, and he’ll need some fortune to fall his way in order to catch Lee, equipped with a four-shot advantage.

Odds to win Texas Children’s Houston Open (via FanDuel Sportsbook)

• -230: Min Woo Lee
• +550: Scottie Scheffler
• +1600: Alejandro Tosti
• +2500: Ryan Fox
• +2800: Ryan Gerard
• +4000: Keith Mitchell
• +6000: Gary Woodland, Jesper Svensson

But Scheffler is no stranger to the chase pack – it was only a year ago that he erased a similar five-shot deficit at THE PLAYERS. So, without further ado…

Draws

Scottie Scheffler +550

Let me get this straight. I’m getting the best player in the field at a better price than he was listed pre-tournament? Sign me up.

Yes, Scheffler struggled in Round 3: His ball-striking was middling, while he regressed in a big way close to the hole, coming in at 56th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 51st in SG: Putting. Those figures will need to turn around in a hurry for him to have a chance at the title that eluded him last year.

But he putted well in the first two rounds, and he’s contending despite ball-striking that’s well below his standard. Scheffler will have plenty of support from the Lone Star crowds, and should Lee wobble at all over the first few holes, it’s Scheffler’s name that he’ll be most interested in targeting on the leaderboards.

Ryan Fox +2500

I backed the Kiwi last night at +5000, and I still like him at half the price. Fox is alongside Scheffler at 12 under, five behind Lee, but he acquitted himself rather well in the third round: After two opening bogeys, he made seven birdies over the subsequent 16 holes including a back-nine 30. Hopes remain alive for his first PGA TOUR win.

Fox is a strong driver, and he’s ranked inside the top 15 this week in both SG: Approach and SG: Putting. That combination could be enough to make him live in the final round if Lee doesn’t keep his foot on the gas.

Fade

Min Woo Lee -230

There’s a good chance he won this tournament with the third-round 63 that gave him a four-shot lead over Tosti as he seeks his first TOUR win. He did everything right, combining elite ball-striking with a hot putter en route to a bogey-free round.

But while he was among the chase pack overnight, priced at +1200 with all the spotlight on Scheffler, now he’s the one facing the bright lights. Lee has shown a penchant for putting good rounds together but sometimes failing to sustain them into good tournaments. He’ll benefit from playing with Tosti in the final pairing, but it won’t take too many hiccups for his in-play price to return to plus-money during Sunday’s final round. After all, winning on TOUR is rarely as easy as Lee made things look in the third round.

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