Driving still rules the day at the Texas Children’s Houston Open – and expect that trend to continue into the second round and beyond as wet weather becomes a bigger focal point at Memorial Park Golf Course.

Players had umbrellas out from the start during Thursday’s opening round, where a four-way logjam at 5-under seemed poised to share first-round leader honors when play was suspended because of darkness. But on a par-70 layout that stretches out to nearly 7,500 yards, success from the tee box took center stage as soft conditions made the long course even more demanding.

Odds to win Texas Children’s Houston Open (via FanDuel Sportsbook)

• +280: Scottie Scheffler
• +1000: Taylor Pendrith
• +1200: Keith Mitchell, Min Woo Lee
• +1800: Rory McIlroy
• +2200: Ryan Gerard
• +3000: Rasmus Højgaard

Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, the top two players in the world, received much of the pre-tournament fanfare. After one round, Scheffler is still a whopping betting favorite as a 3-under 67 left him just two shots off the lead. McIlroy has more ground to make up following an even-par 70 in his first round since winning THE PLAYERS Championship.

But the wet weather is going to increase significantly overnight and into Friday, raising questions about how much golf can be played Friday at Memorial Park. Should significant delays push second-round play into Saturday, there may be a slight edge to the early-late wave who would likely get the course after the weather blows out of town.

But the Strokes Gained leaderboard tells a predictable story on a course where driving has been a big factor since the scene shifted here in 2019: three of the top five players in SG: Off-the-Tee share the overnight lead: Alejandro Tosti (third), Keith Mitchell (fourth) and Taylor Pendrith (fifth).

So as we look for in-play options in Houston, I’m still leaning on the players with power off the tee to create birdie chances on a course that’s only going to get longer.

Draws

Keith Mitchell +1200

Mitchell lived up to his season-long billing in the opening round, as he entered the week ranked fourth on TOUR in SG: Off-the-Tee. He started slowly, with two bogeys in his first four holes, but played his final 14 in 6 under including an eagle on the par-5 16th.

Of the players closest to Scheffler on the odds board, I’m leaning Mitchell over Pendrith among outright options with one TOUR win to their credit. Although both should deliver with the driver through the weekend, Mitchell has been more consistent through the early part of 2025 and I’ll gladly take a little extra line value here over Pendrith’s +1000 price.

Alejandro Tosti +3500

In its brief history at Memorial Park, this tournament has shown a tendency toward repeat performances. Tony Finau notably followed his 2022 win with a T2 finish last year, while Scheffler has two straight top-10s (as he does at about 20 different venues). But while Tosti’s runner-up performance was a surprise a year ago, it shouldn’t be this time around.

Yes, as he proved at TPC Sawgrass he is still volatile – going from the leaderboard to a missed cut in a matter of a few holes – in what was his third straight missed cut. But his recent history has shown that, while the weekend appearances are few and far between, when he has a tee time he’s often in the mix: T10 in Mexico and T9 in Las Vegas in the last few months among just four made cuts. I like his chances to make the weekend after his 5-under 66, and Tosti’s driver will continue to deliver on a course that fits his eye.

Fades

Scottie Scheffler +280

There are just too many variables for his price to be so short. Oddsmakers never struggle to book Scheffler action, and that trend continued this week where he led most pre-tournament handle reports. Ticket holders probably feel pretty good after his bogey-free 67.

But with more than an inch of rain expected overnight and into Friday, it remains to be seen how play might be disrupted and how the course might change. Scheffler will be the main attraction in any field, and that doesn’t change this week. But with 54 holes still to go and the weather poised to become an even bigger storyline, I’m still passing on the world No. 1 given the short potential profits.

Ryan Gerard +2200

One of these things is not like the other. Of the four overnight co-leaders, three are in the top five in SG: OTT – and then there’s Gerard, who sits 145th among 153 players. He’s in the mix because of a brilliant short-game performance, but that’s much harder to replicate throughout 72 holes.

Gerard hasn’t finished inside the top 10 since graduating from the Korn Ferry Tour ranks last year, and there’s too much statistical variance in play here for me to bank on him getting win No. 1 with such a crowded leaderboard.

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