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11D AGO

Draws and fades: Is Daniel Berger back?

3 Min Read

Draws and Fades

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    Written by Ben Everill @BEverillGolfbet

    The FedExCup Fall is seen as the place where opportunity knocks for players and golf bettors alike and halfway through the Sanderson Farms Championship the chance for some former "names" to step up has presented itself.

    Four-time PGA TOUR winner Daniel Berger, former U.S. Open winners Gary Woodland and Lucas Glover, former FedExCup winner Bill Haas and former wonder kid Beau Hossler are all part of the story at The Country Club of Jackson.

    Hossler, a former college standout who qualified for the U.S. Open as a 17-year-old, shot 8-under 64 on Friday to get to 15-under and the lead. He is one clear of Berger at 14-under and two ahead of Jacob Bridgeman, Keith Mitchell and David Skinns at 13-under.

    Six players are tied sixth at 12-under in Woodland, Glover, Hayden Springer, Martin Laird, Kevin Yu and Michael Thorbjornsen. Haas is part of a six-way tie for 12th just four shots back.

    Pretournament we gave you some green, yellow and red-light betting options and now at the halfway house we are going to reload with the benefit of hindsight.

    Green light

    Keith Mitchell +650 (-13, T3)

    When Mitchell putts well, he contends. And guess what … this week he is putting well. While the fact he is ranked seventh in SG: Putting this week could scare some off given he’s 150th on TOUR this season I choose to see it as one of those weeks he figures out the greens and gets hot for his standards. Mitchell ranks inside the top 10 on TOUR in SG: Tee-to-Green, SG: Approach and SG: Off-the-Tee and yet still hasn’t fully nailed those sections of his game yet this week. Leads the field in birdies and Par 4 Scoring. As a former TOUR winner he shouldn’t shrink from the moment over the weekend and represents a good live bet option.

    Yellow light

    Daniel Berger +700 (-14, second)

    I really wanted to slip Berger into the green light considering I highlighted him at the beginning of the FedExCup Fall as my player to watch, but consider him on the fence between yellow and green. We all know what sort of player he was before his injuries, winning four times and seemingly heading towards being a staple of any U.S. Team, but can we trust the full turnaround is imminent? What I love is the fact he’s inside the top 10 this week of SG: Tee-to-Green (second) and SG: Off-the-Tee (eighth) and SG: Approach (seventh). Leads the field this week in Scrambling and Bogey Avoidance. Don’t be afraid to get on now but if you want to stay conservative, let's watch how he goes in round three while back in the spotlight of contention.

    Red lights

    Beau Hossler +350 (-15, first)

    Hossler is inside the top 15 in important metrics this week like SG: Approach (14th), SG: Off-the-Tee (14th) and SG: Putting (fifth) but I’m not prepared to get on at short odds as we watch to see if he can maintain it. Over the season he’s been 97th in SG: Off-The-Tee and a 149th in SG: Approach.

    In the five occasions he held the lead or co-lead through 36 holes he failed to go on to win, twice finishing runner up while being T6, T21 and T43 on the other occasions. He’s also held the 54-hole lead four times for zero wins, although he remained inside the top 10 for all of those instances. Not exactly confidence boosting at +350 odds.

    Hayden Springer +2200 (-12, T6)

    Back-to-back 66s have Springer in great shape on the leaderboard and seemingly value on the betting boards at +2200. But a quick look at his stats sheet should throw up some red flags. Springer has gained an incredible +8.568 in SG: Putting to lead the field but is losing -2.665 strokes on Approach. His putting ranks 89th this season so we can’t expect a person hitting it this poorly to survive contention much longer.

    For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER today.

    Senior Writer, Golfbet Follow Ben Everill on Twitter.