Benny and the Bets: Green light, red light ... where does Rickie Fowler fit in?

When stuck in Montreal traffic last week, deep in thought about what might be the compelling betting storylines for the Sanderson Farms Championship, I watched the traffic signal cycle through from green, to yellow, to red.

It dawned on me that most weeks on the PGA TOUR there are players who I slot into the green, the yellow and the red when it comes to golf betting. And so, as we look towards play at The Country Club of Jackson this week, I’m going to share with you all who fits where.

A green light is a player who I consider a very good choice in a market or even multiple markets.

A yellow light player is someone to hold back from early, but still watch in the live betting space as they round into the competition.

And then a red light player is someone I’m avoiding, even if the hype or history might suggest otherwise.

Green lights

Matt McCarty: Multiple markets

The Korn Ferry Tour superstar, who has three wins on that circuit this season and who takes No. 1 status into the PGA TOUR next season gets a free run at a TOUR event here this week.

He truly has a green light to get used to the next level up without the stress of chasing a job or points and while his old colleagues are chasing jobs, he’ll be looking to roll in putts at The Country Club of Jackson.

Eight of the last 10 winners at the Sanderson Farms Championship finished their week inside the top 14 of SG: Putting, five of them inside the top five. McCarty leads the Korn Ferry Tour in Putting Average and is fourth in Birdie or Better Percentage.

He is +175 for a Top 20, +350 for a Top 10, and if you’re feeling extra adventurous, +4000 to win with BetMGM Sportsbook.

Patrick Fishburn: +2800 outright

While I love McCarty across the board my winner is Fishburn. With four top 15s in his last five starts and a +3.163 Strokes Gained: Total from his last five starts he is the form player in the field. I expect him to be in the mix this week and again next week in his native Utah.

Mac Meissner: +5000 longshot

Meissner has three top 20s in his last five starts but has done so with the fourth-best SG: Total in this field over that period. The fall always throws up players looking to make a name for themselves and Meissner has the game for The Country Club of Jackson. At +200 for a Top 20, he’s one to watch.

Yellow lights

Mackenzie Hughes

The Canadian is a former champion here but coming off the Presidents Cup in his home country is a tough ask. Don’t get me wrong, I think Hughes is going to threaten victories in the coming months, I just don’t know if this week is the week.

Not only was he commiserating with his International Team well into the early hours of Monday morning following their loss in Montreal but he was also tasked with the stress and pressure of being a Canadian player in front of his home crowd.

That adrenaline output all last week has to take a toll at some point and I fear Hughes might start slowly in Jackson, Mississippi.

But,if he does stay in the mix and is in control through one or two rounds, then Hughes becomes a live betting option. Hence the yellow light. Bettors can wait and see how he reacts to last week and then make a judgment call.

After the 2019 and 2022 Presidents Cups players who competed would go on to win TOUR events in the early weeks and months afterwards while riding confidence. If Hughes gets through the fatigue, he can easily move into green light territory.

Red lights

Rickie Fowler

As a human, I love Rickie Fowler. He’s a fun guy who also has incredible talent in the game of golf. But as a bettor this week, I’d be staying off the lovable character.

Fowler returns for the first time on TOUR since The Open Championship, mostly due to the birth of his second child, with a +6600 outright price tag in an event devoid of the biggest stars in the game.

Name recognition could be enough for some people to jump on his price but remember there will be competitive rust and he hasn’t had a top 10 this season. In fact, his last top 10 was his win in July 2023 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

Expecting him to jump right back into his old ways is dangerous.