Draws & Fades: Can Xander Schauffele complete chase of history at Torrey Pines?

As a two-time host of the U.S. Open, it’s no secret the South Course at Torrey Pines Golf Course is difficult. Through the first two days of the Farmers Insurance Open, we saw the South Course play significantly tougher than the North Course for the first time in a few years. Traditionally, the North Course had been much closer in difficulty to the South, but this year, it was more than two-and-a-half shots easier on Wednesday and Thursday.

After Thursday's cut, everyone shifted to the South Course only – where Saturday's final round will also be staged – and scoring was even more challenging in Round 3 than it had been the first two days. Of the 79 players remaining in the field, 61 shot even par or worse on Friday. The South Course played more than a shot-and-a-half harder on Friday than it had the previous two days.

The first three events on the PGA TOUR this season saw an average winning score of 25-under par. Here we are in San Diego, week two of the West Coast Swing, and your leader is at just 11-under with one round left to play.

Stephan Jaeger, a six-time winner on the Korn Ferry Tour and still seeking his first PGA TOUR victory, is the man alone at the top, followed closely by Nicolai Højgaard and Matthieu Pavon, who are one shot back at 10-under.

Thomas Detry, who was in the lead by himself, standing on the tee on the 18th hole, made double bogey on the last and is now two back at 9-under. Five players are three off the pace at 8-under and an incredible nine players are tied for 10th place at 7-under, including Tony Finau, Xander Schauffele, Will Zalatoris, and Ludvig Åberg.

Over the last two years, the winner was five shots back through 54 holes. Seven of the last 10 years the winner has been between three and six back at this stage. Will we see another successful chase this week?

Weather conditions have been excellent. The wind blew 10-15 mph on Friday, which is a pretty typical coastal breeze but on Saturday, winds are expected to dip below 10 mph with high temperatures in the low 70s.

Conditions suggest scoring will improve. The course will be another day dryer but the rough will be another 24 hours thicker and the greens likely a bit firmer and faster. Who is it that will be able to tame this first real beast of a test of the 2024 season?

DRAWS

Nicolai Højgaard (+400)

Højgaard had some very tough luck on the greens on Friday, narrowly missing holing out for eagle and lipping out a two-foot putt to make bogey - both of these misfortunes coming on the back nine. He'll need to clean up the game off the tee as he only hit five of 14 fairways on Friday but is still gaining strokes on the field in this metric. Everything else has been superb. He's 28th in the field for SG: Putting, 10th in Driving Distance, 27th for Greens in Regulation, and is third in Scrambling. He entered the tournament as one of the hottest golfers in the game, with his last four starts on the DP World Tour since November resulting in a seventh, a 25th, plus a win and a runner-up. I believe the Driving Accuracy corrects itself on Saturday and Højgaard is the man to beat this week in San Diego.

Thomas Detry (+1400)

If you saw Friday's coverage, you saw how disappointed Thomas Detry was to see his wedge shot into 18 spin back into Devlin’s Billabong, the water hazard guarding the 18th green. If he can put that behind him and move forward on Saturday, he will be in the mix with a great shot to win on TOUR for the first time. This is Detry's second time playing the Farmers Insurance Open after finishing in the top 40 last season. He is losing nearly a stroke to the field on approach and after three rounds and ranks 61st in Scrambling. Otherwise, he's been excellent in the stats. For a player who had the lead after 53 holes, I believe this is a nice price heading into Saturday’s finale.

Xander Schauffele (+1400)

If you are looking for a hat trick of consecutive winners to come from well back I believe Schauffele has the best chance. Two years ago, Luke List came from five shots off the pace to win on the final day as did Max Homa last year. Schauffele has a runner-up finish to his credit here and could go one better on Saturday. He's driving it beautifully, he's eighth in this field for SG: Approach, ninth in Greens in Regulation, and 14th in Scrambling - but out of 79 players, he is 62nd for SG: Putting. If the flat stick gets hot on Saturday, look out for the local native and San Diego State Aztec.

FADE

Tony Finau (+2200)

Finau has eight top-24 finishes here, with five top 10s, including a runner-up. There is no better course history in this field and that just might be carrying him because he has been very shaky in the stats. He's losing strokes around the green and in SG: Putting, where he ranks 73rd in the field. He's only hitting 50% of fairways and ranks 53rd in Scrambling. Because of the player he is and his history at this course, he's trading at +2200 but I believe, realistically, he ought to be at least +3000. He'll need to make a huge turnaround to contend once again but if he continues the way he's going, he could miss out on a top-20 finish.