Draws & Fades: Expect Xander Schauffele to catch up as scene shifts to brawny South Course

We’re halfway home at the Farmers Insurance Open, and another longshot winner still remains a distinct possibility.

With three champions to open the 2024 PGA TOUR season each priced at +15000 or above, it’s been a dream scenario for bettors that lean toward the longshot. The chalk has essentially evaporated through the month of January, and this week at Torrey Pines Golf Course that trend could continue with Stephan Jaeger (+8000 pre-tournament at BetMGM Sportsbook) leading Nicolai Højgaard (+5000 pre-tournament) by one shot through 36 holes.

Granted, the contenders are still within reach. Tony Finau, a top-10 machine in San Diego, sits three shots behind Jaeger. Xander Schauffele and Hideki Matsuyama headline the group at 7-under, five off the pace, while Patrick Cantlay is one shot further adrift as the scene shifts to the more difficult South Course for the last two rounds.

Updated odds to win Farmers Insurance Open (via BetMGM):

• +450: Stephan Jaeger, Nicolai Højgaard
• +750: Tony Finau
• +1000: Xander Schauffele
• +1400: Matthieu Pavon, Thomas Detry
• +1800: Michael Kim
• +2500: Hideki Matsuyama, Patrick Cantlay
• +3300: Emiliano Grillo

The wet conditions took some of the teeth out of the brawny South Course over the first two days, but the difficulty will only increase from here. So with that in mind, here’s a look at the players I’m backing – and those whose price is too short at the halfway point.

Draws

Xander Schauffele (+1000)

The cream rises to the top at a world-class venue like Torrey Pines, and I expect Schauffele in the mix this weekend. Entering off a T3 finish at The American Express that looked better on paper than it felt in the moment, Schauffele is again on the fringe of contention after rounds of 69-68. His game on the South Course Wednesday was well-rounded: eighth in SG: Approach, 15th Off the Tee and 23rd in Putting.

It’s the sort of combination that has served him so well in majors, and it’ll serve him well again this week at a major-caliber venue. Expect this number to shorten up heading into the final round.

Scott Stallings (+9000)

In the year of the longshot, might as well take a flyer. Stallings won this event in surprise fashion 10 years ago, and he lost a playoff the following year in defense of his title. The guy knows how to get it around Torrey, and he did just that Wednesday while leading the field in Proximity and sitting fourth in SG: Putting en route to a 4-under 68 on the South. He followed with a 69 on the easier North and now sits alongside Schauffele at 7-under but is trading at nine times the price.

Stallings tends to maximize his chances in contention, though, as evidenced by a T2 at the Sanderson Farms Championship in October, and another round in the 60s will surely keep him within reach heading into the final round. At +15000 pre-tournament, he’d certainly fit the mold of recent surprise winners.

Fades

Stephan Jaeger (+450)

This is an opportunity to sell high on a veteran who has racked up wins on the Korn Ferry Tour but has yet to break through at the highest level. Jaeger finished birdie-eagle on Nos. 8-9 of the North Course to grab the outright lead, capping an impressive round of 8-under 64 on the easier layout.

And while he played well in his opener on the South, he actually lost strokes to the field with his approach play. That’s not a trend that can continue if Jaeger is to snag a watershed win, and at this stage I’m concerned his irons will eventually leave him adrift on a course with minimal margin for error.

Nicolai Højgaard (+450)

If there’s one element my Golfbet colleagues and I zeroed in on during our pre-tournament analysis, it’s that experience matters around Torrey Pines. Each of the last six winners (and eight of the last nine) were making at least their sixth start at Torrey. The South Course can’t be solved overnight. Even though Højgaard got through relatively unscathed in the opening round, carding a 5-under 67 that included just a single bogey, the 7,700-yard layout will eventually demand its pound of flesh.

Højgaard has the talent to win on TOUR, as evidenced by his spot on the European Ryder Cup team last fall – even if he has been subsequently overshadowed by Ludvig Åberg. Eventually he’ll break through, but I’m not looking to back the Dane at such a short price with two rounds to go on such a demanding venue.

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