Draws and Fades: Keegan Bradley man to beat in wide-open race at Sony Open

Step up and grab it.

This is the mindset for a number of players ahead of the final round of the Sony Open in Hawaii, given how packed the leaderboard remains at Waialae Country Club.

It was the most compact leaderboard in Sony Open history after 36 holes, and while some separation came late Saturday, 21 players are still within five shots of the lead.

Honestly, trying to handicap this chase to the finish is one of the toughest out there. It’s the first Full-Field Event of the season, so players are back on deck for the first time in a while, and Waialae is one of the scoreable courses on the PGA TOUR. It really is anyone’s game.

Matching the course record 59 by Justin Thomas might be a tough ask, but don’t be surprised if your winner on Sunday throws out a low 60s to get it done.

As such, we can entertain a winner from as far as six or seven back, albeit anyone from that distance will need some help. In this case it’s not the distance back as much as the number of players between them and the lead.

It’s within reason to think a couple of players could struggle Sunday, but the more people between you and the lead, the more likely some of them will join you in playing well.

Keegan Bradley is in the catbird seat at the top of the leaderboard, tied for the lead with Grayson Murray at 14-under after a 7-under 63 on Saturday. Murray was almost as good on the way to a 64.

They are one clear of Sam Stevens at 13-under with last week’s winner Chris Kirk joined by Ben Silverman, Taiga Semikawa, Byeong Hun An and Matthieu Pavon at 11-under.

Four players are 10-under, nine players are at 9-under, and if you really want to stretch, top players Tyrrell Hatton, Brian Harman and Cam Davis are among nine players six shots back at 8-under.

Obviously in these scenarios I try to break down the data to get an edge, but experience chasing a TOUR win isn’t a stat we find on our books. And it could easily be a factor. I got to be honest, the likes of multiple-time winners Bradley and Kirk are hard to ignore knowing they’re proven when it comes to playing under the big nerves.

Here are the latest odds at BetMGM Sportsbook after three rounds at Waialae Country Club.

• +180: Keegan Bradley (-14, T1)
• +550: Grayson Murray (-14, T1)
• +800: Sam Stevens (-13, 3rd)
• +1000: Byeong Hun An (-13, T3)
• +1000: Chris Kirk (-11, T5)
• +2500: Matthieu Pavon (-11, T5)
• +3000: Taiga Semikawa (-11, T5)
• +4000: Kurt Kitayama (-10, T9)
• +4000: Ben Silverman (-11, T5)
• +4000: Emiliano Grillo (-10, T9)

DRAWS

Chris Kirk (+1000, -11, T5)

While last week's winner from The Sentry is giving up a three-shot start, he still represents some value on the betting boards. Kirk is ranked second in Strokes Gained: Approach this week and fifth in SG: Off-the-Tee – a good thing as he’s giving away strokes on the greens, ranked 63rd in SG: Putting. History shows you DO need to putt well to win at Waialae, and so a decision on Kirk comes down to the belief he can find his range on the greens in the final round. It won’t be easy, but given he has two previous top-threes here, he becomes a possible hunter to watch.

Keegan Bradley (+180, -14, T1)

Hate the odds given how many players can win, but it is short for a reason: Bradley probably should win from here. Ranks seventh in SG: Approach this week and T11 in SG: Putting. He’s coming off a season where he ranked 20th on TOUR in putting, the best putter last season near the top of the leaderboard this week. An experienced winner with a point to prove after missing the Ryder Cup. Bradley is a candidate to follow in live betting and try to jump in as the odds rollercoaster a little.

FADES

Sam Stevens (+800, T3)

It just comes down to experience for me here. Stevens was awesome on Saturday with a 63, but I’m just not confident he will back it up with quite the same style on Sunday. While he learned about the heat of the battle with a runner up at the Valero Texas Open last season, he hasn’t had a top-10 finish since late July. He’s also putting really well this week (ranked 22nd) considering he ranked 166th on TOUR in the metric last season. I fear the pressure of Sunday will put the blowtorch on his green efforts also.

LOTTERY TICKETS

Tyrrell Hatton (+10000, -8, T22)

Stranger things have happened. Hatton is obviously a world class player who ranked seventh on TOUR last season in SG: Putting. If he can manufacture a 60… well… it’s called the lottery for a reason.

Taylor Montgomery (+8000, -9, T13)

Second best putter on TOUR last season. Will need every bit of that to have a chance.

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