Horses for Courses: Buy in on Bermudagrass specialists at Sony Open in Hawaii

The Opening Drive of the 2024 PGA TOUR season continues this week on Oahu at the Sony Open in Hawaii.

Designed by Seth Raynor in 1927, Waialae Country Club has played host since 1965.

A Full-Field Event of 144 players will stroll the relatively flat seaside layout. The par 70 plays 7,044 yards as it has since 2007. Playing as one of the shortest tracks on TOUR annually, Waialae’s protection comes from the sea breezes, tight driving doglegs and large, firm Tifway Bermudagrass putting surfaces.

Of the 59 players who teed it up last week on Maui at The Sentry, 38 entered this week. The last 10 winners at the Sony Open in Hawaii have produced eight champions who played the week before at Kapalua, but only two of the previous four.

Horses for Courses

The most decorated player in the field is 2019 champion Matt Kuchar (+5000) who is making his 19th start at Waialae. In 10 visits since 2011, he’s picked up seven top-10 paydays plus a T13. His last 36 rounds have produced 70 or better 33 times. The last two seasons, he’s a combined 30-under and has not cracked the top five in either visit (T7, T7). It’s time to make birdies and score again this week.

Sub-Par Rounds

Players listed are in the field this week; 2023 season stats.

The last three editions have provided excellent scoring conditions. After 36 holes, the cut has been 2-under, 4-under, and 5-under. Rounds of 70 or worse need not apply. The 2023 edition saw just six total rounds above 70 from the top 53 players. Only four rounds of 70 were produced by the top 40 players in 2022 and 2021. Even though this is the first tournament of the year, there is no time to work out the kinks on the Waialae links. Justin Thomas (not entered) holds the course record of 59 and the tournament record of 253 (27-under).

Chris Kirk (+2800) doesn’t need an introduction after last week and his domination at Kapalua. I was ready for Kirk to play well in Hawaii, but I thought it would be this week. In the last three editions at Waialae CC, he’s posted 47-under aggregate to finish T2, T27, and solo third. Over 13 starts he’s played all four rounds nine times, finished second twice (2014), and has five top-10 paychecks. In his last six visits, he’s flown back with top 10 money three times. Playing every edition since 2011, he sits sixth on the all-time money list. He will look to join Ernie Els and Justin Thomas as the only players to win The Sentry and the Sony Open in the same season.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Players listed are in the field this week; 2023 season stats.

Doglegs and tight driving conditions can get even tighter when the wind blows. Controlling shots from uneven Bermudagrass rough will be rewarded when fairways are not found. Hitting the 7,100-square-foot greens in the proper areas will create more scoring chances. Only two of the last nine winners have ranked outside the top seven in this category. One of those years (2020), the wind blew 25 mph all weekend.

Russell Henley (+2200) didn’t waste any time introducing himself to the PGA TOUR on his maiden voyage in 2013. Fresh off two wins in the last three Korn Ferry Tour events, the newly minted card-carrying TOUR member won in his first event with a card. Setting the par 70 tournament record by four shots, he circled 26 birdies against only two bogeys. The Georgia native picked up T11 in 2021 before losing in a playoff to Hideki Matsuyama in 2022. Posting 49-under aggregate the last three seasons, his streak of rounds in the 60s has reached 13, and he remains the last player to win on debut.

Par-3 Scoring

Players listed are in the field this week; 2023 season stats.

Only 2014 champion Jimmy Walker, the last player to defend the title, did not rank in the top 10 in this category. Winning by nine shots, he was perfect everywhere else! The four par-3s range from 174 to 204 yards, but three of the four, measure 194 yards or better, the longest part of a short course.

The last two champions, Si Woo Kim (+4000) and Hideki Matsuyama (+5000) have extended the streak of international winners to four years. The Korean, Kim, led the field in SG: Approach and Proximity yet was only T38 in SG: Putting when picking up his second top four in six visits. Usually deadly on approach, Matsuyama relied on a hot putter. The Japanese star produced the best putting week of his career to offset his average iron play and picked up his only top-10 from nine visits.

Oddsmaker’s Extras

Corey Conners (+2800): The Canadian has never had to book an early flight home in five trips to Waialae CC. Only missing the 2021 edition, he’s cashed T12-11-T12-T3 in his last four outings. With a scoring average of 67.05, he’s a must-play this week in any format.

Andrew Putnam (+5000): Highlights from cashing five times in his last six starts included 62 in Round 3 last year (T4) and a runner-up finish to Kuchar in 2019.

Ryan Palmer (+12500): Only Kuchar and 2009 winner Zach Johnson (+30000), both with 18, have made more starts at Waialae CC than Palmer’s 17. The 2010 champion joins those three in the top 10 of all-time earnings as he rolls into town, cashing in his last five. The 2020 edition was his third and final, for now, top-10 result, but he added T12 in 2022. Of his 60 rounds completed, 51 have registered as par or better.

Hayden Buckley (+15000): In two visits accounting for eight rounds, he’s posted a 32-under-par aggregate for a scoring average of 66. Cashing T12 on debut at 15 under, he returned last year to lead by two shots after 54 holes. Closing with 68, his worst round from eight, he couldn’t catch Si Woo Kim and fell one shot short of a playoff. I’ll have a hard time leaving him out this year.

Kevin Kisner (+20000): From the booth back to the links, he’s another Georgia Bulldog who has success with four top-10 paydays from eight weekends. Not shy to remind folks he’s enjoying the smaller ballparks on TOUR, the NBC analyst from last week has cashed in his prior eight visits, including T3-T32-T4 in his last three (DNS 2023).

-Odds courtesy of BETMGM.COM-

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