You always need your fair share of luck in Las Vegas but when you bring your best skills to go with it… that’s when you really have a chance against the house.

And there were certainly a handful of players who brought some of their sublime skills in the opening round of the Shriners Children’s Open at TPC Summerlin.

J.T. Poston set the standard early with a silky 8-under 63, a round that included two eagles, before Beau Hossler one-upped him in the afternoon with a 9-under 62 to take the solo lead.

Cameron Champ joined Poston in second place with his own 63, while Davis Thompson and Lanto Griffin sit just two back after rounds of 64.

Last week’s winner of the Sanderson Farms Championship, Luke List, sits well poised again at six under while defending champion and pre-tournament favorite Tom Kim had to settle for a 3-under 68.

Trying to find the winner from here sees us returning to the past. The last five winners have finished at somewhere between 21 and 24 under at TPC Summerlin, so we have to find players who are already close enough to get there. While an even-par round Thursday has a player inside the top half of the field, needing an average of better than five under a round to win could tell us the winning pool is smaller than we think.

I’d be surprised if the eventual winner has started with worse than a 69, and those who shot two or three under now know they probably need to go eight deep on at least one of their remaining three rounds.

For the record, LPGA star Lexi Thompson was holding her own before darkness halted play, sitting at one-over through 16 holes, in a tie for 76th, with three birdies on her card.

Here are the latest odds from BetMGM Sportsbook after the first day.

+450: Beau Hossler (-9, 1st)
+500: J.T. Poston (-8, T2)
+1000: Cameron Champ (-8, T2)
+1100: Davis Thompson (-7, T4)
+1600: Tom Kim (-3, T19); J.J. Spaun (-5, T8)
+1800: Cam Davis (-4, T10)
+2000: Luke List (-6, T6); Nick Taylor (-6, T6)
+2200: Ludvig Åberg (-2, T28)
+3000: Adam Hadwin (-3, T20); Lanto Griffin (-7, T4)

Here are some players who are catching my eye with three days remaining.

DRAWS

J.T. Poston (+500, -8, T2)

Sometimes you look at a deep scorecard and see two eagles and wonder how lucky the player may have been. But Poston’s Thursday effort was not one based on luck. Poston leads the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and SG: Putting, overcoming slight deficiencies off the tee and around the green. That’s pretty much been his standard over a very nice season, and I’m expecting the postman will keep delivering. Pre-tournament I pointed out Poston as a top 20 or better option, with a focus on the fact he is eighth on TOUR in Birdie or Better Percentage from 125-150 yards, a key distance on this course. He made three of six birdies from that range Thursday. A year ago, he put up a third round 63 only to fade to a T20. This time I think he can push further into contention. Poston will start on the easier back nine in the second round and kickstart another climb up the leaderboard.

Tom Kim (+1400, -3, T21)

If anyone is going to make a run from a ho-hum start it will be the defending champion Tom Kim. His 68 wasn’t by any means exciting, but the mistakes came via his short game which showed a little rust. If he fixes those few loose shots he can go low. With 47 rounds now in the 60s this season Kim knows how to do it. He is also first on TOUR in GIR from 125-150 yards and 27th on TOUR in SG: Tee-to-Green. I’d have loved to have seen a better number from the oddsmakers, but clearly they know what the young Korean is capable of also. He will start on the easier back nine in the morning and have his chance to wrestle himself back into the tournament.

FADES

Ludvig Åberg (+2200, -2, T30)

I went out on a limb in my preview by suggesting the young superstar was a fade this week and despite him shooting a reasonable 2-under 69, I’m not prepared to change my mind. A lull had to come at some point for the young Swede, and with his wedge game statistically behind many others in this field, TPC Summerlin struck me as a course he’d need some more reps on before getting overly comfortable. On Thursday he hit just seven of 14 fairways and ranked 93rd in SG: Around the Green. He’s not playing poorly, but unlike Kim he’s not quite sharp enough, or doesn’t have the course recognition, to get deep enough on the scorecard.