Draws and Fades: Short game the key to weekend success at TPC Summerlin
4 Min Read
Lexi Thompson put on a heck of a show at TPC Summerlin, home of the Shriners Children's Open in Las Vegas, but unfortunately she will not be around for the weekend after missing the cut by three shots. Thompson was a +900 long shot to make the cut at BetMGM Sportsbook with prices ranging from as low as +275 to as high as +1500 at other outlets. Clearly there was a wide range of pricing on the LPGA star's chances of playing the weekend, and she made a great run at it while beating 33 male professionals in the field with rounds of 73-69.
At the very top of the leaderboard after two rounds are Cameron Champ and Lanto Griffin, each at 12 under. Henrik Norlander, who lost a playoff last week to Luke List, is one shot back through 36 holes at 11 under. J.T. Poston and Nick Taylor are at 10-under with five players three back at 9 under including List, last week's winner. One of the shorter-priced pre-tournament favorites, Cam Davis, is among the group at 8-under after shooting two straight 67's.
When handicapping this tournament prior to Thursday's start, I knew Scrambling would be a key ingredient for success as we have seen as much out of past winners here west of the Las Vegas Strip. Going into the weekend, I want players that are scrambling well, good on approach, and are traditionally good putters.
Here’s a look at how I’m assessing the field at the halfway point at TPC Summerlin:
Draws
J.T. Poston (+700)
J.T. Poston hits the flag to set up birdie at Shriners Children's Open
Coming in, Poston was ranked third in this field for SG: Putting on bentgrass greens over the last 24 rounds. He's shown why, currently sixth in this field for such through two rounds. Poston currently ranks second in the field for SG: Approach but slipped quite a bit on Friday around the greens, where he ranked 95th in Scrambling. I believe his putting and approach play will continue to be very strong and that his work around the greens will improve. Pre-tournament, Poston ranked 23rd in this field for Scrambling over the last 24-rounds. His bad round is out of the way. Poston shot 63 on Thursday and then 69 on Friday. I believe that the "low show" will resume for Poston over the weekend and he'll absolutely be in the mix to cash a winning ticket in Las Vegas.
Alex Noren (+2000)
Like Poston, Noren is another player who owns an excellent short game. He was actually a player I considered pre-tournament at longer odds but still not a bad number here with him in serious contention. Through two rounds, Noren ranks sixth in this field for SG: Approach and sixth for Scrambling. What is amazing, is Noren ranking 66th in SG: Putting, losing over two strokes to the field with the flat stick. However, I am convinced this will turn to the positive quickly for a guy who is ranked 17th on TOUR in SG: Putting. Noren is playing excellent golf and is an excellent putter. When some putts start to fall over the weekend, he too will be right there with a chance to win.
Fade
Lanto Griffin (+800)
Griffin, Champ tied for the lead heading into the weekend at Shriners
Griffin is being fueled by a red-hot short game so far here at TPC Summerlin. He is No. 1 in the field for SG: Putting and in SG: Around The Green. The problem is, he is 60th in Greens in Regulation and 66th in SG: Approach, losing more than 2.5 strokes to the field on approach. My feeling is the short game cannot shoulder the load of poor approach play for much longer. While Griffin may improve on approach, it is not likely that his work on and around the greens will continue to be so scorching. Unfortunately, he is on opposite ends of the spectrum in the key areas of which we are focused - and it is likely that all of that regresses to the mean, both positively and negatively in this case, leaving Griffin on the outside looking in come Sunday afternoon in the desert.
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