Draws & Fades: Forget Rory and Scheffler

The unpredictability of links golf and Scottish weather has given me the bravado to tell you all to fade the favorites ahead of the final three rounds at the Genesis Scottish Open.

It was a beautiful Scottish summer day for the opening round but reports suggest the best conditions have passed at the Renaissance Club and with wet and windy conditions on the way, coupled with the fact the Open Championship is on the mind of many, it becomes a battle of the mind as much as skill.

Byeong (Ben) Hun An was brilliant on his way to a 9-under 61 to take the first-round lead, two shots ahead of Davis Riley and three clear of crowd favorite, and betting favorite, Rory McIlroy who sits third with Thomas Detry after 6-under 64s.

K.H. Lee and Yannik Paul share fifth at 5 under and eight players share seventh at 4 under, including Max Homa and Tom Kim.

Meteorologist Guy Nestor has warned of the possibility of a wild windy finish on Sunday as well as the threat of rain during the latter part of Friday’s second round and overnight into the weekend.

“A warm front will approach the area from the SW giving us a good chance for showers during the morning into early afternoon hours then steadier rains likely from late afternoon and into the evening. The heaviest of the rains tomorrow will occur during the evening hours with potential for 8- 16 mm for the day,” Nestor’s forecast says.

“Low pressure system slides west of Edinburgh on Saturday with another round of showers likely during the afternoon with embedded thunderstorms likely. Stronger winds move in for Sunday on the back side of the low pressure system with speeds of 20-30 MPH and gusts up to 35 MPH possible for most of the day.”

In other words, we need to be looking for players who will handle the wet and wind… and just as importantly… who really wants to handle it the week ahead of the Open Championship.

The early wave got the better of the scoring in round 1, 69.60 against 69.82 but I feel the chances are Friday’s early wave may get an even better advantage. Those out before the rain can make their moves.

Already we can speculate a wandering mind may have got the best of the likes of Viktor Hovland (+3), Patrick Cantlay (+2), Jordan Spieth (+2) and Adam Scott (+2) who all need to go deep in round two if they plan to play the weekend.

Here are the latest odds via BetMGM Sportsbook.

+300: Rory McIlroy (-6, T3)
+600: Byeong Hun An (-9, 1st)
+900: Scottie Scheffler (-2, T26)
+1400: Max Homa (-4, T7)
+1400: Rickie Fowler (-3, T15)
+1600: Davis Riley (-7, 2nd)
+1800: Thomas Detry (-6, T3)
+2200: Tom Kim (-4, T7)
+3000: Wyndham Clark (-2, T26)

Here’s who I like the look of going forward.

DRAWS

RICKIE FOWLER (+1400 to win)

Other than a sloppy final hole bogey Fowler continued his recent solid form as he returned from his comeback victory a few weeks ago. And here’s the good news following his 3-under 67 that has him tied 15th. His approach play ranked a below average 85th in the field Thursday, but his season rank is seventh, so we can expect a rebound there. He was 18th in SG: Putting Thursday so improved approach play and continuation with his putter spells positive returns. With the rust knocked off and a morning tee time Fowler is primed to make a run up the leaderboard. Fowler is a former Scottish Open winner and is no stranger to links golf.

THOMAS DETRY (+1800 to win)

I have to admit, I really like Detry from here, but unfortunately, he is on the likely tougher side of the draw tomorrow. Even so, Belgium’s former World Cup winner is used to European style conditions and could come through better than others. He’s just three shots off the lead and still decent odds compared to other contenders and he finished T10 a year ago on the same track. He struggled off the tee on Thursday, but this is an anomaly compared to his season efforts so hopefully there is some improvement going forward as he was second in the field on approach and a more than respectable 12th in SG: Putting. One more nugget for you… he was second at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship last fall… in the wind.

TOM KIM (+2200 to win)

My thinking here is on reputation and history – combined with the comparative odds value. With my theory of fading the favorites in place, Kim represents a player starting at 4 under with an early morning tee time who finished third a year ago to help kickstart his entire career trajectory. Will he be able to maintain his smile and solid striking as things get really wet and wild… we can’t be sure. But if you are looking to get some “value” the +2200 has some enticement.

WILDCARD: Max Homa (+1400 to win)

I’ll need to pull the splinters out of my backside after this take as I’m sitting on the fence… but Homa is an intriguing prospect from here. He has an early tee time after a decent 66 on Thursday and played lovely to rank sixth in SG: Tee-to-Green. He struggled a little adjusting to links golf green speeds but as one of the better putters on TOUR I suspect he will be better for the run so to speak. BUT he also hasn’t shown himself to be a great links player thus far. He did finish T16 a year ago, without ever being in the mix… so the jury is out.

FADES

RORY McILROY (+300 to win)

McIlroy benefitted from making some big putts on Thursday to surge out to a great opening score and ranked inside the top 20 off the tee, on approach and on the greens. But to consider +300 from this point for a guy who has had issues closing of late and who is on the tougher side of the draw just seems folly. I would love nothing more than to see McIlroy get it done ahead of The Open at the venue he’s won before but I also wonder how much grind he will be willing to put on the line as he manages his energy levels.

SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER (+900 to win)

We all know Scheffler has skill to burn but +900 for a player seven off the pace that ranked 120th in SG: Putting and who is known for struggles on the greens seems silly. He hit just five of 13 fairways Thursday and ranked 150th for Proximity on approach so I’d want to double the odds to even consider it with the weather variables and a major on the horizon. Scheffler does have the advantage of an early Friday tee time and you would expect improvement in his approach game but even still… no thanks.

BYEONG HUN AN (+600 to win)

“Ben” is a proven DP World Tour winner and certainly is good enough to continue his opening round efforts… but let me remind you Cameron Tringale opened with a 61 a year ago also and did not end up saluting at the end of the week. Set to be on the tougher side of the draw makes the chances he goes low on Friday even less likely. Consider this also: An ranked second in SG: Putting whereas his season rank is 141st. He was 13th in SG: Approach while sitting at 94th on the year.