With winds expected to whip, look to the chase pack at Renaissance

When Rory McIlroy striped his approach to the par-5 10th hole Saturday, setting up a short eagle putt to extend his lead, he appeared in position to take control of the Genesis Scottish Open. Even when that putt went awry, McIlroy got as low as a -225 favorite at BetMGM Sportsbook while playing from the top spot all afternoon at The Renaissance Club.

But things tightened up down the stretch. Tommy Fleetwood closed out a 63, world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler surged into contention and McIlroy failed to build further distance from the pack. With winds expected to freshen for the finale in East Lothian, who will lift the trophy remains up in the (breezy) air.

Updated odds to win Genesis Scottish Open (via BetMGM)

+125: Rory McIlroy

+500: Tom Kim

+650: Tommy Fleetwood

+800: Scottie Scheffler

+1200: Brian Harman

+1400: Shane Lowry

+3300: Eric Cole

+3500: J.T. Poston, Max Homa, Byeong-Hun An

+6600: Tyrrell Hatton

McIlroy is still the man to beat, having protected the one-shot advantage over Tom Kim with which he began the third round. It would come as no surprise to see him win this event on the eve of returning to Royal Liverpool in search of his second Open title. But with the Ulsterman (still struggling) on the greens, there could be value in some of his closest pursuers.

Here’s a look at the players I have on the radar heading into what should be an entertaining final round in Scotland, and those where I think the price could be too short:

Draws

Shane Lowry (+1400, T-5, three shots back)

If things are going to get windy on Sunday, I like the option of backing the Irishman in this spot. Lowry is a seasoned veteran who has won in all sorts of conditions, especially around this part of the season with his tentpole triumphs at the Irish Open as an amateur and the 2019 Open at Royal Portrush. He has sufficiently rebounded from an opening 71, spinning a 129 total over the last 36 holes despite bogeys on two of his final four holes Saturday.

Lowry had it humming in the third round, playing his first 11 in 5 under, and he leads the field this week in SG: Putting. A blustery forecast could lead him to rein things in off the tee, which can’t hurt given his SG: Off-the-Tee totals through 54 holes. But Lowry tends to embrace the conditions, and given an opportunity to add a top-tier trophy to his collection (and nip McIlroy in the process), I think he’s a great option to back from the eight players within three shots of McIlroy’s lead.

J.T. Poston (+3500, T-5, three shots back)

Three players highlighted here are sitting at 10 under through 54 holes. Notice anything different? Poston’s price is a multiple of Lowry’s (and Scottie Scheffler’s) despite the fact that they’ll start the final round on equal footing.

Look, when you think of links golf in the U.K. it’s probably not Poston’s headshot that comes to mind. But he played well last week in defense of his title at the John Deere Classic and hasn’t missed a step since crossing the Atlantic, with three straight rounds in the 60s while sitting inside the top 10 in the field in SG: Putting (fourth) and SG: Approach (ninth).

If things are going to get a little weird, why not take a flier on a player like Poston? Two wins on the PGA TOUR, plenty of major appearances, unlikely to feel the heat of a star-studded leaderboard but still able to put together a low round when everything clicks. I think this price is inflated because of the names around him on the standings, but I don’t think that dynamic will affect the affable Southerner.

If the winds are going to whip, you can do worse than back a high-upside player with strong irons and a hot putter.

Fades

Scottie Scheffler (+800, T-5, three shots back)

There was some eye-popping in-play value on Scheffler Saturday, as he reached north of +6000 after a double bogey on No. 2. But he closed with a flourish, playing his final 11 holes in 5 under including birdies on three of his final four holes. The last of those circles, a 23-footer on No. 18, more than cut his odds in half as he briefly reached +650 live.

Would this have been an appealing 54-hole scenario to be offered pre-tournament, when his price was only a bit higher? Sure. Can he win from here? Absolutely. But McIlroy likely won’t fold, he has some players with bona fides like Fleetwood and Lowry also in the mix. But the biggest key for me is that, despite his leaderboard position and third-round rally, Scheffler still isn’t putting well.

The world No. 1 sits 59th this week in SG: Putting, near the bottom of those who made the cut. Even with his birdie barrage Saturday, he still lost strokes on the green in the third round.

Scheffler’s ball-striking is more than elite, to the point where he need only putt average to have a 65 in the bag. But he’s still struggling to hit even that pedestrian mark on the greens, and so I’m not sold that he can put up another number like he did in Round 3 without the putter cooperating further. Add to it that he’ll catch some steam overnight, given his name recognition and highlight reel finish to the third round, and this number is just too low.

Rory McIlroy (+125, Leads by one)

This is a fade of the price, not the player. There are simply too many variables in play for me to look to back the Ulsterman at close to even money. The first issue, of course, is the weather. It will bring high-variance scores into play and could make it more difficult to protect a lead if his spot-on ball-striking begins to go awry. But the bigger concern for me, especially at this price, is the putter.

McIlroy seems dead set on trying to win this tournament in spite of his putter, a trait he seemingly shares with Scheffler. He’s 60th in SG: Putting this week, losing ground each of the last two rounds. While his performance on the greens wasn’t as rough as his second-round total, when he lost more than three shots to the field, it’s still a hindrance (and a testimony to just how well he has hit it tee-to-green).

If conditions were calm, it’s a weak spot I could potentially look past. But the combination of unknown weather and a balky putter means that, while he’s surely capable of closing this thing out and heading to Hoylake on a high, I’m not looking to add to the portfolio at this price.

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