Weather suspension may benefit Jon Rahm in Augusta

The storms we had been expecting blew through heavily Friday afternoon, halting play at 4:22 p.m. ET and even taking out a couple of large pine trees to the left of the 17th hole tee box just moments before the horn blew. Thankfully, reports are that no injuries were sustained. Nearly an hour and a half later, play at the Masters was officially suspended for the rest of the day. Play will resume at 8 a.m. Saturday, with 39 players still to complete their second round in what’s shaping up as a potential marathon day in some difficult conditions.

Four-time major champion Brooks Koepka completed his round early Friday, well before the storms blew through, and is currently atop the leaderboard at 12 under par. Koepka is three shots ahead of Jon Rahm, who has nine holes left to play in his second round. One of the bigger stories of the tournament so far is the amateur, Sam Bennett, out of Texas A&M. Bennett has fired two straight rounds of 68 in his first-ever Masters and is four shots off the lead. The U.S. Amateur champ has played in just one other major, finishing 49th at last year's U.S. Open.

The scoring has gone somewhat according to plan – or at least what we had in mind in relation to the weather pattern. Thursday was warm with very little wind and the players that teed off early on Friday, continued to experience very benign, easier scoring conditions. Before Friday's stoppage, the wind began to pick up and the number of birdies being made began to drop. The greens have been softer and slower in pace versus Masters Tournaments of the past. Many players are saying it’s not as soft as the 2020 Masters, played in November, but softer and slower than we typically see in April.

Saturday ought to be interesting as temperatures are expected to be in the neighborhood of 50 degrees, a 30-degree drop from earlier in the week, with rain and winds between 15-20 MPH. The greens will likely be even softer with the amount of rain that is expected.

With several notables still to complete their second round, here’s a look at some of my overnight selections as the tournament nears the halfway point (odds via BetMGM Sportsbook):

Draws

Jon Rahm (+220, 2nd, -9)

It’s hardly a secret that Rahm double-bogeyed his very first hole Thursday, four-putting the opening green. Since then, he is 11 under par. He has nine holes remaining in his second round and is just three shots off the lead. Rahm hit every fairway on Thursday and 17 of 18 greens in regulation. On Friday he had a few misses, hitting four of seven fairways and only five of nine greens. Getting the rest of the day off before resuming his second round could be a good reset for Rahm to get the driving accuracy worked out - which led to at least a couple of missed greens in regulation.

For those that like to take a drive down narrative street, if the Masters is able to finish on Sunday, that day – April 9 – is the late, great Spaniard Seve Ballesteros' birthday. Another Spaniard, Sergio Garcia, won his Masters in 2017 on April 9. That trend could continue with Rahm slipping on a green jacket this Sunday.

Coming in, he was the player getting the least amount of love in the market among the three single-digit favorites: Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, and Rory McIlroy. Often times a contrarian move comes out a winner in sports betting, and that could be the case here involving the top three players in the OWGR.

Hideki Matsuyama (+6600, T18, -3)

For those looking for a dive further down the board and to invest in a long shot, I think Matsuyama is positioned best to have a shot at winning his second green jacket in three years. He is currently 3 under, just one shot out of the top 10 on the leaderboard, and still has 10 holes left to play in his second round. Through 26 holes, Matsuyama only has one bogey in the tournament, that coming on the final hole on Thursday. He is hitting 95 percent of fairways and 77 percent of greens in regulation.

Ten of the last 11 Masters winners came into the tournament with at least two top-15 finishes in their three prior starts leading up. Matsuyama checks that box with a fifth place at THE PLAYERS Championship and a 15th at the Valero Texas Open. He really won the 2021 Masters with a big day on Moving Day that year, shooting a 65 on that Saturday. He could be primed for another big move on this Saturday in 2023.

Matsuyama conceded a match to Max Homa two weeks ago at the WGC-Match Play, sighting a neck injury. It seems to be in good shape after what he did in Texas and what he is doing so far here in Augusta. If there are any lingering issues with the neck, the break in the action gives him more time to get any treatment and get back to work.

Fades

Brooks Koepka (+140, 1st, -12)

Coming into the week, Koepka had missed consecutive cuts in his last two Masters starts due in large part to his battle with injuries. When Patrick Reed won the green jacket in 2018, he was the first winner who had missed the cut the year prior since Tiger Woods pulled it off with his historic triumph in 1997 - Tiger missing the cut as an amateur in 1996. Reed is the only Masters winner to have won after missing the cut in the year prior in the last 26 years.

There are six players, currently in the top 10 on the leaderboard, who missed the cut at the Masters last year: Sam Burns, Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose, Gary Woodland, Cameron Young - and Koepka.

Koepka has hit an incredible 25 of 28 fairways through 36 holes and 81 percent of greens in regulation. He has made just one bogey, and that came on the 13th hole Thursday. While Rahm showed some wobbles off the tee Friday, the break in action ought to serve him well in making any necessary adjustments. With Koepka being nearly perfect through two rounds, the extended break could make it tough on him to sustain what he's been doing so far.

Sam Bennett (a) (+3500, 3rd, -8)

It’s tough to go against one of the feel-good stories of the tournament so far, but as sports bettors, it is often profitable to go against the "Yes" and bet on the "No." The masses like to bet on achievement and lots of fireworks in the way of scoring or heroics. The bookmakers know this, and often prices are adjusted to protect against the wave of bets potentially going one way. The point is, there is often value on betting on "unders" or the "no" and that is what I am banking on here.

Bennett was anywhere from +300000 to +500000 to win this tournament before it started, and he is now priced in the same neighborhood as Jason Day, Cameron Young, Sam Burns, and Matt Fitzpatrick all were pre-tournament. In his defense, he is from Texas and plays his college golf in Texas, so it is likely that Bennett has plenty of experience playing in windy conditions. But he doesn't have much experience playing in major championships, nor has any amateur ever won the Masters. The last time we had a winner playing in their very first Masters was 44 years ago. There is a good chance that Bennett will be the only amateur in the field to make the cut, and will thus go on to win the Silver Cup as Low Amateur. But I'm not ready to risk anything on him donning a green jacket.

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