History says only 12 players can win Masters from here

We might have 54 holes left to play but only 12 players remain in contention for a green jacket if history is anything to go by.

The last 17 champions, and 70 of the 86 winners, were all inside the top 11 after 18 holes of play. If this trend continues the winner at Augusta National will be Jon Rahm (7-under 65), Viktor Hovland (65), Brooks Koepka (65), Cameron Young (67), Jason Day (67), Shane Lowry (68), Xander Schauffele (68), Adam Scott (68), Gary Woodland (68), Scottie Scheffler (68), Sam Burns (68) or amateur Sam Bennett (68).

Not since Tiger Woods was T33 through one round in 2005 has a player ultimately won the green jacket without a hot start. Which of these 12 are the most likely to win from here? Here’s my thoughts on who will kick forward, and who might struggle. And just in case, I’ll throw a wildcard from outside the “winning zone” who might defy history.

DRAWS

Jon Rahm (-7, T1, +350 to win)

Imagine four-putting the opening green for a double bogey and still shooting 65 to lead the tournament. That’s exactly what Jon Rahm was able to accomplish which makes him the betting favorite from here.

Rather than be worried about the opening hole aberration we instead must focus on the fact Rahm hit 14 of 14 fairways and 17 of 18 greens on Thursday. Outside the opening hole he was brilliant off the tee, thanks in part to a driver change.

“Finally, it's the first time this year that it's felt like it should in the past, my swing off the tee, definitely,” Rahm said. “Those two 3-woods on the first hole and one on 10, both well-hit. Every other tee shot… is about as good as I could… line-wise especially, a little bit more on line, every trajectory was the way I thought of… I just committed to my lines and to my swing and was able to pull it off.”

With four previous top 10s at Augusta National from six starts it’s certainly hard to bet against the Spaniard from here.

Scottie Scheffler (-4, T6, +550 to win)

A defending champion hasn’t won at Augusta National since Tiger Woods in 2001-2002 but Scottie Scheffler can’t be discounted after an opening 68 that clearly wasn’t his best stuff. The recent PLAYERS champion hit just 11 of 14 fairways, but 16 of 18 greens.

As is usually the case, the weakness was his putting, missing a number of chances to go deeper on his round. Scheffler will need to lift his putting averages from his T61 rank in an 86-man field but I’m giving him at least one more day to do so.

“Got a lot of good looks and I thought I was hitting a lot of good putts, just hitting a lot of edges, which happens. These greens are not easy to putt and you can't expect to make everything,” Scheffler said. “I was doing a good job of controlling my emotions today and staying in check, and I didn't get too frustrated on the greens. I hit a lot of good putts, it's just sometimes they go in, sometimes they don't.”

Jason Day (-5, T4, +1400 to win)

Call it bias if you want but there was a lot of reasons to love what Jason Day did out there in his opening round. In fact, it’s just the second time in his Masters career he’s opened with a round in the 60s and it came under some vintage Day like efforts.

While some might point to hitting just 10 of 14 fairways and 14 of 18 greens as mediocre – when it comes to Day it fits right in line with when he was the best player in the world and an imaginative scrambling genius. With just 27 putts (T5) Day was rolling his rock impressively and with his seven straight top 20 finishes coming into the week on the PGA TOUR as proof… he’s trending.

And he reckons he should have made more putts. Not bad for a guy with three previous top five results at the Masters.

“I had a lot of good looks out there for birdie early on, missed 'em. I just couldn't quite get the speed right at the start. I just kind of kept on blowing it through the break,” Day said.

“And then the back side things kind of started easing back into where I could see the ball go into the hole a lot better.”

FADES

Viktor Hovland (-7, T1, +1000 to win)

It is with a little sadness I am set to fade the smiling assassin in Viktor Hovland. He’s impossible not to like despite a horrendously loud shirt and his efforts Thursday were certainly exciting to watch.

But my concern comes with the fact he hit just 13 of 18 greens on Thursday. Usually Hovland’s efforts around and on the greens would trip him up with that sort of inaccuracy but instead he ranked second in putting with just 26 putts.

Ranked 166th on the PGA TOUR in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 79th in SG: Putting, it has me worried there may be a regression to the mean as the weather moves in and potentially throws a few more balls off putting surfaces.

Gary Woodland (-4, T6, +6600 to win)

I have the same fears for former U.S. Open winner Gary Woodland and it appears the oddsmakers agree. He’s at least at an attractive number on the betting boards but given he ranks 201st in SG: Around the Green on TOUR this season and 199th in SG: Putting, I have major concerns he can maintain this pace.

He only hit nine of 14 fairways on Thursday but manufactured a great score by making a number of mid-range putts he just won’t do again.

Adam Scott (-4, T6, +5000)

Just to show I can push through Australian bias, I’m going to stick a fork in 2013 Masters champion Adam Scott and say he’s done in terms of winning on the 10th anniversary of his epic triumph.

Of course, I hope I’m wrong here, but given Scott hit 10 of 14 fairways and just 13 of 18 greens, I'm worried that he only saved himself with a couple of great sand saves and some nice putts.. The problem was he should have easily been at least two shots better up the leaderboard, and I fear those missed chances will come back to bite him on the backside.

He’ll need to lean on all his experience from here… but now that I think about it… he did win in the wet a decade ago. (Someone stick this on his locker and see if he tries to prove me wrong!)

WILDCARD

Jordan Spieth (-3, T13, +2000)

Jordan Spieth is the ultimate wildcard because you just don’t know what he’s going to produce from one hole to the next. In another rollercoaster display, the 2015 champion had seven birdies, second only to Koepka and Rahm in par-breakers, but also had two bogeys and a mind-boggling double bogey.

Spieth tried a hero shot on the newly lengthened par-5 13th from pine straw and dumped his ball into Rae’s Creek when his lie was screaming out for a layup. If he can keep his head screwed on going forward, he has the firepower to move up the boards but he needs to limit the brain explosions.

“It was a really bad decision,” Spieth admitted. “Instead of lining up to cut it to the middle of the green, I lined up to cut it to the pin from the middle of the green hoping it would come out flat and straight and just trying to kind of feed one in for eagle versus just being okay with having an inside 10 feet for birdie. Just a mistake I don't normally make out here that was really frustrating.”