A late stumble in the third round from Aldrich Potgieter has opened the door for a few players to steal the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld from the young South African.

Potgieter shot a reasonable 4-under 67 to move to 20-under, but his overnight four-shot lead dropped to just one shot over Brian Campbell, who posted a 64 to move to 19-under. Stephan Jaeger is just three off the pace at 17-under.

Alex Smalley at 15-under plus Aaron Rai and Ben Griffin at 14-under have not given up the fight with a round to play, especially at the very scoreable Vidanta Vallarta.

The 20-year-old leader had a mixed Saturday as he notched up six birdies but also two bogeys. The last dropped shot came on 17 amidst a flurry of nervy shots down the stretch when he could have taken control of the tournament.

Regardless, the youngster is still the clear betting favorite with oddsmakers, now +110 to win via FanDuel Sportsbook. His awesome power continues to give him an advantage over the others, something bettors hopefully were aware of via Will Gray’s Expert Picks, or our Sleeper Picks, in the lead-up to the tournament when he was at a very juicy +7000.

Coming into the week he led the TOUR in Driving Distance and was second on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee behind only Rory McIlroy. He currently leads the field in Driving Distance (all drives) and SG: Putting this week and is second in SG: Off-the-Tee and sixth in SG: Tee-to-Green.

As good as that was, the nerves hit his approach play on Saturday as he edged towards a life-changing PGA TOUR win. Already a winner of The Amateur Championship (2022) and also on the Korn Ferry Tour (2024), Potgieter has to collect his nerves for a Sunday tilt at glory.

I for one think he can hold on, but I wouldn’t be jumping on now at these low odds. The current odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are as follows:

• +110: Aldrich Potgieter (-20, first)
• +240: Brian Campbell (-19, second)
• +400: Stephan Jaeger (-17, third)
• +1800: Alex Smalley (-15, fourth)
• +3500: Aaron Rai (-14, T5)
• +3500: Ben Griffin (-14, T5)

So let’s take a look at the likely remaining contenders and find why they might win, and why they might not.

Aldrich Potgieter +110

Case for: Like we said above he’s an absolute beast off the tee and has a significant distance advantage producing some shots that appear borderline unfair. Leads the field in SG: Putting, Driving Distance – All Drives, Total Birdies, Par 3 Scoring, Par 4 Scoring … and a host of other categories. Second in SG: Off-the-Tee and Front 9 Scoring.

Case against: Nerves. It’s tough to win on the PGA TOUR as a veteran let alone a 20-year-old. On Saturday we saw Potgieter struggle to keep his adrenaline in check on quite a few approach and tee shots and that will be part of the equation even more so on Sunday. He’s 43rd in SG: Approach, something he will likely need to tidy up.

Brian Campbell +240

Case for: Credit where credit is due, Campbell has hung with the leader when most people, including myself, thought he might fold from contention. His tenacity has him leading the field in SG: Around-the-Green and SG: Tee-to-Green and perhaps crucially … he leads the field in Back 9 Scoring.

Case against: Nerves times 10. While Potgieter will feel the heat, Campbell perhaps even more so. This is a 31-year-old who has spent most of his career on the Korn Ferry Tour but never won there, let alone on the PGA TOUR. The other problem is that he is 74th in Driving Distance this week. He is giving up massive length to his competitor and surely that has to give at some point.

Stephan Jaeger +400

Case for: This man has been there and done that, winning on TOUR last season and holding off none other than world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler to do it. Jaeger co-leads the field in Par 4 Scoring and Front 9 Scoring this week and is second in total birdies and SG: Putting. It was almost like he got his poor round out of the way on Saturday and still shot 66 to be within striking distance. He finished third here last season.

Case against: Three shots isn’t an easy deficit to overcome and Jaeger has been less than stellar on the easy par 5s this week, ranking T39 in the field. Actually has two par-5 bogeys this week, and if he has another, that will be the death knell.

Alex Smalley +1800

Case for: Speaking of Par 5 Scoring, this man leads the field on the long holes. Also leads the field in Scrambling and Bounce Back, although starting this far back means any bogey will likely be the end of a challenge. Best stat though – leading the field in SG: Off-the-Tee. Has nothing to lose and will be playing aggressively.

Case against: Sits 37th in SG: Putting this week and will need to be one of the best in the field on Sunday on the greens to have a chance. (Did rank sixth for just the third round). And five shots is a lot, even on a scoreable golf course.

At the end of the day, I’m riding with the youngster … good luck with your pick.

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