I’m not going to lie: Finding a winner for the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld is much harder than it has been in the past.

Connecting on Tony Finau in 2023 wasn’t tough, given he’d been runner-up the year before and fit the course mold. Even last year, Jake Knapp was on several pundits’ radar because he had contended at Torrey Pines (T3) in the lead-up weeks.

But this week, we have a field full of names not usually this high on the odds board to sift through. The betting favorite is Akshay Bhatia at +1400, a likely serious contender this week, but at odds much shorter than I love.

As I sometimes advocate, this week is one where you might pull back on your outlay pre-tournament and instead focus on live betting once you get a sense of how players are going. Otherwise, I’d be doing smaller units on longer odds, more in the mid-range section of +4000 and above, when it comes to pre-tournament action.

But if we are looking to delve in early, where should you focus? We know we need to look at players who hit it long – with Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee having all three previous winners inside the top 11. We know they need to marry that up with approach play, with all three winners in the top three of SG: Tee-to-Green and the last two leading the field in SG: Ball-Striking (combining Total Driving and Greens in Regulation).

Those are mainstream stats. But let me throw one at you that you might not be thinking of: approach play from outside 200 yards.

Over the last three seasons, we’ve seen more approaches from outside 200 yards than any other TOUR stop. An average of 42.3% of all approach shots were from long range, with the four par 5s and even the drivable par-4 seventh hole amongst spots where this is paramount. Sure, this is an insider mentality, but it might just be the difference maker for you this week.

It is helping me lean towards Alex Smalley (+4000) as my first outright choice. Smalley is sixth on TOUR in relation to par on approach shots greater than 200 yards, and when I marry that up with his T6 at VidantaWorld in 2022, his recent contention at the WM Phoenix Open, The American Express and the Sony Open in Hawaii, and the fact he’s third in SG: Total and seventh in SG: Tee-to-Green… well he’s on my radar.

There are two other players in the top 10 this season in relation to par from outside 200 yards you should also consider, albeit at risky odds in my opinion: Rasmus Højgaard (+1800) and Kurt Kitayama (+2200). Højgaard has come off the radar for some because of his last-place finish and missed cut at The Genesis Invitational. But he was T12 in Phoenix before that and is 11th in Driving Distance. While his wayward drives were punished at Torrey Pines, the rough is nearly non-existent in comparison in Mexico and he ranks eighth in our “outside 200-yard” stat. Kitayama is fifth on TOUR from outside 200 yards and happened to be a runner-up in this event the only time he suited up in 2022.

We can also find love for the defending champion Knapp (+4500) at 19th on TOUR outside 200 yards. Had a nice timely T17 last week at Torrey Pines. It was his form from Torrey (Farmers Insurance Open) in 2024 that helped Knapp catapult to a win. His driver has been wayward lately, but still long.

One “fun” option might be looking to parlay the twins, Rasmus and Nicolai Højgaard, for a high finish. They are rising stars of Europe, and if they bring their "A" game, they should both be in the mix on Sunday. DraftKings has odds of +466 for both of them to finish in the top 20 including ties.

One last player I want to hit on is Patrick Rodgers. He is certainly going to be popular for many this week who saw him thrust his way into the final group on Sunday at Torrey Pines and, he has three top 10s at VidantaWorld from three starts. It is seemingly the perfect confluence of results. But you won’t find me advocating for him in an outright market at +2200, where he sits.

The reality is Rodgers is a super-talented player who just hasn’t figured out the final piece of the puzzle: winning. His T3 at Torrey Pines was his eighth top-three finish on TOUR… yet he has no wins. Unfortunately, when it comes to going up a gear on Sunday, he just hasn’t found it. For a period last Sunday, I was prepared to forgive him another miss, given how epic Maverick McNealy’s charge was and how clutch Ludvig Åberg’s fightback was. But then I saw he was still 10-under with eight holes to go. With two par 5s to come, his chance was there to match the 12-under winning score. So rather than take the outright option, if you love his form, stick to the +225 Top 10 including ties bet instead. You could take the pre-tournament number if you were prepared to take a possible cash-out option come Saturday night!

Benny's betting card

• Outright: Alex Smalley +4000
• Outright: Jake Knapp +4500
• Top 20 Parlay: Rasmus and Nicolai Højgaard +466
• Top 10 including ties: Patrick Rodgers +225
• Live bet option to monitor: Kurt Kitayama (+2200)

I’ll have more long shots for you to consider in this week’s Sleeper Picks!

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