Bolton: Fantasy scores soar, but reality sets in with Sony Open in Hawaii roster strategy

I told you that fantasy scoring would be off the charts at The Sentry, and then Hideki Matsuyama went ahead and literally went off the chart with a record performance.

En route to a three-stroke victory, Matsuyama scored 35-under 257 at Kapalua Resort’s Plantation Course. It’s the lowest in relation to par across a four-round tournament in the history of the PGA TOUR.

All the while, gamers on board in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by PGA TOUR Superstore are off to the races with what probably will be their highest output in any tournament this season.

The numbers are staggering, but that was the idea in the limited-field, no-cut contest on the only par 73 on the docket. Matsuyama alone totaled 220 points, and that wasn’t even if you had him designated as your captain, for which his value is doubled.

With Matsuyama as the captain, the gamer known as Morrison Hotel led the site with 804 points. That’s the possibility when the winner contributes twice his output. I didn’t roster Matsuyama and settled for 577 points. That slots me 8,692th in the overall standings and 1,274th in the PGA TOUR Experts league.

For veteran gamers who are keen on getting the pulse of the new format, consider that I scored 458 points at the 2024 edition of The Sentry and sat 1,524th one stop into what was Segment 1 of the 2023-24 fantasy season. Brett Jungles, who is among the eight experts in this season’s Expert Picks, led us last year at Kapalua with 516 points and ranked 70th!

The moral of the matter, at least early, is that the curve has broadened on both sides of the mean. The best among us will continue to perform well and watch others have ridiculously hot weeks, but the bulge on the right of the scale will be a reflection of risk over the conservative approach. Cuts made still matter and we’re all going to get lucky at times with our captains, but there’s a greater emphasis on burning starts on chalk over roster management across a segment. That’s how an increase in scoring influences.

Use the captain literally to double down on the value of burning a start that still only counts as one against the three allotted in a segment. Otherwise, save it.

Captain

NOTE: All points scored by this player are doubled. Be aggressive.

As we settle into the feels for the new format, two reminders are critical: First, you cannot change your captain after he’s locked in. This includes if he misses the cut.

Second, only starters contribute scores to your team total. So, if your captain is playing but he’s on your bench, you’re wasting him. Plan on keeping your captain as a starter throughout the entirety of the tournament.

Hideki Matsuyama … This is rather simple because it grants you two of him while he’s the hottest on the planet and on a site where he’s won before (in 2022).

The easy No. 1 in my Power Rankings has been nothing but quality since taking the title at The Genesis Invitational last year. (Speaking of which, save a start in Segment 1 for that title defense.) He added another win at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, a T6 at THE PLAYERS Championship, a solo sixth at the U.S. Open, a bronze medal at the Olympics and a T2 at the Dunlop Phoenix to wrap up the year in his native Japan. All of that, of course, preceded last week’s clinic at Kapalua.

The rub is his penchant for a last-minute withdrawal, but that’s not as much of a deterrent because of the auto-swap function. So, if he’s your captain, have your first replacement lined up as a guy who you’re probably going to want to start, anyway. (NOTE: If a captain withdraws after your roster is locked, you lose your ability to designate a captain for the tournament, but the risk is worth the infrequency of the possibility.)

Other considerations:

• Russell Henley … No. 3 in the Power Rankings. The 2013 champ will be a popular roster choice, so assigning him as your captain would one-up the pushes.
• Tom Kim … No. 6 in my Power Rankings. Opens as my No. 1 option on my bench solely as surety in the event of a Matsuyama malady.

REMINDER: To designate a captain, select “C” beside the starter you want as your captain.

Rounding out the roster

The Sentry always is a soft open, both for gamers and the participants themselves. If you missed on champion Matsuyama as your captain, understand that it could’ve been much worse if there was a cut and you lost ground on the weekend.

Speaking of which, that’s this week’s reality!

The Sony Open in Hawaii is the first tournament of the season with a 36-hole cut of low 65 and ties. That function of competition will be influencing roster decisions all season, but with only six in a lineup, the more impactful variable is the weather, at least at times, and this is one of those times.

The trade winds will be a factor this week. Timing is of the essence, so I will revisit the forecast later on Wednesday.

With that in mind, the rest of my lineup consists simply of the next five after Matsuyama in my Power Rankings. Other than Kim as Matsuyama’s insurance, this is by default.

It’s possible that I will be modifying others to exploit the opportunity to play in the calmest winds. This usually results in 4x2 stacks to capitalize on one half of the draw on a single day, but it also could be a 3x3 whereby a blend to attain balance and get at least four past the cut line is achieved. When the wind is enough of an issue, building a roster for it instead of against your competition in a traditional sense can be more valuable. That also can feed into edges in roster management.

Tee times are released on Tuesdays and before Expert Picks publishes with our original intentions. It’s why we all reserve the right to make changes. To that end, I’ll never advise that you lock in your decisions as early as we do. Gather as much information as you can to give yourself the best of the puncher’s chance.

My starters

• Corey Conners
• Russell Henley
• Maverick McNealy

My bench

• Tom Kim (1)
• Austin Eckroat (2)

REMINDERS: If you don’t save your lineup, what you’ve selected will time out and go blank. If you don’t choose a captain when you select “Save,” you will be reminded with a pop-up message. If you edit your roster after saving, you must select “Update” to activate changes.

Careful

For almost every tournament, a usually impressive subset of the field warrants pause when considering roster moves. It very well might be represented in my Power Rankings, which are not written in the context of any fantasy golf format. In this section, I will single out who demands pause and why.

J.T. Poston … Lands here for the same reason that he’s No. 10 in my Power Rankings. Last year’s solo sixth was end-loaded with a final-round 61. It lifted him 33 spots on the leaderboard after the third round. He’s still safe but he can be more dynamic in the matrix of DFS.

Luke Clanton … No. 15 in the Power Rankings. It’s tough to tell which is more impressive: that he’s the top-ranked amateur in the world or that he’s 87th in the Official World Golf Ranking as an amateur. So, yeah, he belongs, and it’s a treat for him to open 2025 in Hawaii as he delays in reorganizing his lifestyle at Florida State University, but the winds of Waialae can require some personal losses in them before a talent can get a grip of course management. He’s a star in the making, but this test is tougher than it seems.

Sahith Theegala … Omitted from my Power Rankings because he settled for a T36 at Kapalua after stumbling out of the gates with a 76. And while that still can be a tune-up for Waialae, he’s just 1-for-2 with a T48 (2022). So, the angle here is for him to open on the bench for the mildly aggressive who lean on his permanent class in the face of contrarian analysis. I’ll add that he does perform to the extremes of finishing way back as much as he contends.

Takumi Kanaya … The sky isn’t even the limit for the 26-year-old who just shared runner-up honors at PGA TOUR Q-School presented by Korn Ferry. That piggybacked a fruitful season on his native Japan Golf Tour where he finished atop the money list. However, for as much intrigue and anticipation with which he debuts as a PGA TOUR member, there’s as much doubt about how much it will translate to this level. As Waialae alone, he missed the cut in all four of his attempts spanning 2019-2024. (For the record, because he made nine starts during the 2021-22 PGA TOUR season, he does not qualify as a rookie in 2025. You can follow my Rookie Ranking this season on X. This is the opening edition.)

Returning to competition

Seamus Power … As it turned out, the only thing that could derail his under-the-radar groove in the second half of 2024 was a sore back. It knocked him out of his second round of The RSM Classic, but he could afford the late loss because he’s exempt into the second and third Signature Events via the first grouping of the Aon Next 10. No need to wait that long before pouncing, however. While not potent enough for PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by PGA TOUR Superstore, give him a look across DFS situations. His 4-for-6 at Waialae includes a T3 in 2022.

Ben Martin … Back in action after a seven-month break for an injured neck, the 37-year-old opens 2025 with 12 starts on a Major Medical Extension. Waialae is a perfect spot to shake off the rust and overcome doubt with his physical fitness what with warm temps and a shorter, scorable track. He’s also 8-for-10 with a T7 (in 2018). Should be cheap, so toss him a share in DFS.

Bronson Burgoon … Committed to The Bahamas Golf Classic at Atlantis Paradise Island. The Korn Ferry Tour season opener begins on Sunday, Jan. 12. This is a free opportunity to monitor his performance while he continues to sit on five starts via a medical extension on the PGA TOUR. He’d need just 25.878 FedExCup points to secure conditional status, so he could be looking at contributing perhaps at least 15 starts if he can stay healthy. Hasn’t pegged it on the PGA TOUR since May.

Vince Covello … The 42-year-old also is slated to play in The Bahamas. He went 0-for-3 last summer on the Korn Ferry Tour and has 17 starts remaining on his medical extension on the PGA TOUR where he hasn’t competed since 2020. Classic penny stock in salary formats as his long ride back from a back injury marches on.

Notable W/Ds

Christiaan Bezuidenhout … It wasn’t long after he polished off a T40 in his debut at The Sentry that he opted to sit this one out. He’ll be able to tee it up in every PGA TOUR event before the FedExCup Playoffs for the first time, so his learning curve this year includes time management.

Davis Riley … Endured a rough week at Kapalua before calling it quits at the turn during his final round. An explanation wasn’t released. It extended a rut since his relative surprise as the winner of the Charles Schwab Challenge that yielded the return trip to Maui.

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