Odds Outlook: The Sentry champ Hideki Matsuyama tops the odds board at Sony Open

The Opening Drive continues in Hawaii as oddsmakers and bettors alike have their eye on the player who just lifted the first trophy of 2025.

The Sony Open in Hawaii kicks off Thursday, hosted at Waialae Country Club on the island of Oahu. This year, it’s the site of the first full-field event of the year, welcoming a field of 144 players.

The betting favorite is the man who just added a new page to the PGA TOUR history books: Hideki Matsuyama (+1000 at FanDuel), who broke the record for cumulative score to par with his win Sunday at The Sentry. Matsuyama shot 35-under at Kapalua, becoming the seventh player to win both The Sentry and Sony Open in Hawaii during his career. The Japanese ball-striking machine, champion at Waialae in 2022, circled 33 birdies and two eagles against only two bogeys on Maui. Using a brand-new Scotty Cameron putter, the former Masters champion ranked third last week in Strokes Gained: Putting, gaining over 10 shots on the putting surfaces on top of his four rounds at 65 or better. Making his 11th start at Waialae, his only top-10 finish is his victory.

Corey Conners (+1400) and the rest of the gang flying over from Maui will look to stop a two-year streak of winners at Waialae who did not play The Plantation Course the week prior. The Canadian, who opened his season with four rounds in the 60s and a T5 at Kapalua, is one of 36 players who made the short trip from Kapalua. Making his seventh visit, Conners saw his streak of four consecutive T12 or better paydays dry up in 2024 with T57. A tee-to-green machine, he has posted 23 of 24 career rounds at 70 or better, and over a third of his loops (nine of 24) are 66 or better.

Tom Kim (+2000) is the only player from the top three choices making his 2025 debut and will open his season on a flat, seaside walk instead of the mountains of west Maui. Searching for his first two rounds on the weekend, the 22-year-old Korean returns to Waialae for the first time in two years. A busy fall saw the three-time TOUR winner compete in his native Korea (second; Genesis Championship), Hong Kong (MC; LINK Hong Kong Open) and the Bahamas, where he posted 19-under to finish second to Scottie Scheffler. The cut has been 2-under or better nine of the last 10 years, so a fast start is necessary. Fast finishes are also required! The winning score has been 17-under or better in nine of the previous 10 tournaments.

Russell Henley (+2200) returns to one of his favorite stops on the PGA TOUR calendar. Winning the 2013 edition in his first event with a TOUR card, the Georgia native lost to Matsuyama in extra holes in 2022 and shared fourth last year, missing the three-man playoff by just a shot. A fantastic yet winless 2024 saw him cash in the top 10 in the final two majors of the season and fourth at The TOUR Championship in Atlanta. Knocking off the competitive inactivity in The Bahamas in December, he shared last place but posted four rounds of 70 or better at Kapalua for T30.

Coming off his best season as a pro, checking the box labeled "winner" is the next step for Byeong Hun An (+2200) on the PGA TOUR. Making just 22 starts last season, he matched his career best with five top-10 results and 12 top-25 paydays. He qualified for East Lake and finished T21 to secure entry into the eight Signature Events and four major championships for 2025. The first two acts of 2024 were cashing solo fourth at Kapalua and losing out in a three-man playoff here to Grayson Murray. The final act of 2024 was defeating Tom Kim and lifting the trophy in his native Korea at the Genesis Championship in late October. Posting 69-67 to close at Kapalua to share 30th, his best two rounds of the week were the last pair. Rust busted.

Keegan Bradley (+2500) was the third member of the three-man playoff needed to decide the 2024 champion at Waialae. Playing in his 10th consecutive edition and 13th overall, the 2025 Ryder Cup captain for the U.S. Team has produced T12 or better every other year since 2020, but last year was his only visit to the top 10. Squaring only five bogeys at Kapalua, the 2024 BMW Championship winner at Castle Pines posted 21-under (T15) after cashing solo fifth at the Hero World Challenge in December. From the turn of the century until Henley’s win in 2013, veteran players (over 30) were automatic winners at Waialae, but five of the last six champions have been 30 or younger.

Robert MacIntyre (+2800) tees it up on Oahu for the second consecutive season. The Scotsman, twice a winner last year on TOUR, has cashed T25 or better, including four top-10 results, in nine of his previous 12 starts after his win at the Genesis Scottish Open. From the seaside to the desert through the humidity of Memphis, the left-hander did not wilt from the heat or the travel. A chilly putter in the opening event muted an excellent week of ball striking at Kapalua. A bogey-free round of 66 (7-under) on Sunday and only five bogeys squared total highlighted his T15 payday to start the new season.

Maverick McNealy (+2800) finished tied for eighth in his Kapalua debut, as the first-time TOUR winner in the final official event of 2024 showed zero signs of rust or complacency to start the new season. Posting 27 birdies against just four bogeys, the former Stanford man returns to Waialae for the fourth consecutive season. Highlighted by a T7 in 2023, he owns 11 of 12 rounds in the 60s. Fantastic off the tee and on and around the greens, he ranked ninth in SG: Total in 2024. It’s not surprising he factors weekly.

Recent form: Top-10 finishers from Kapalua in the field this week (not listed above) include:

• T5 – Thomas Detry (+7000)
• T8 – Harry Hall (+5000)
• T8 – Tom Hoge (+7000)

Course history: Former champions (not listed above) include:

• 2023: Si Woo Kim (+3500)
• 2019: Matt Kuchar (+8000)
• 2010: Ryan Palmer (+60000)
• 2009: Zach Johnson (+30000)

Here's a look at other notable odds for the rest of the field, via FanDuel:

• +3300: Sahith Theegala
• +3500: Kurt Kitayama, Taylor Pendrith
• +4000: Davis Thompson, J.T. Poston, Luke Clanton
• +4500: Austin Eckroat, Brian Harman
• +5000: Ben Griffin
• +5500: Chris Kirk
• +6000: Harris English
• +6500: Sepp Straka, Billy Horschel, Denny McCarthy
• +7000: Michael Thorbjornsen, Cam Davis, Mackenzie Hughes
• +7500: Daniel Berger, Andrew Novak, Seamus Power
• +8000: Stephan Jaeger, Eric Cole, Nick Dunlap
• +9000: Patrick Fishburn, Mac Meissner, Doug Ghim, Michael Kim, Nico Echavarria, Patrick Rodgers, Keith Mitchell
• +10000: J.J. Spaun, Sam Stevens, Lucas Glover, Joe Highsmith, Andrew Putnam

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