Odds Outlook: Former champ Xander Schauffele clear betting favorite at The Sentry

Before the 2024 calendar year ends, the previews begin for the 2025 PGA TOUR season opener at The Sentry. While enjoying holiday celebrations, world No. 1 and (weekly prohibitive favorite) Scottie Scheffler suffered a hand injury that will keep him out for the next couple of weeks.

Replacing Scheffler as the favorite at the Plantation Course at Kapalua for the first leg of the 2025 Opening Drive is 2024 Player of the Year runner-up Xander Schauffele (+475). The Californian paces the field of 60 in the first of eight Signature Events in the new year. A winner of two major championships in 2024, Schauffele headlines the list of former champions in the field after having won at Kapalua in 2019. He makes his eighth consecutive start on the island of Maui and has cashed T12 or better in five of his last six at the former pineapple plantation. Ranking second in both Strokes Gained: Total and SG: Tee to Green, the only man who ranks higher is not in the field this week.

The only two ways to gain entrance into the field this week were to be a tournament champion in 2024 or reside in the FedExCup top 50 at the end of last season. The runner-up to Scheffler at both the TOUR Championship and the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday, Collin Morikawa (+1000) cashed inside the top 10 in eight of 22 starts in the 2024 season and finished second in the FedExCup standings. Only Scheffler and Schauffele produced better scoring averages in 2024. The 2023 runner-up on Maui makes his sixth start at Kapalua and has never finished worse than T7.

The champion in 2017 and 2020, Justin Thomas (+1200) will look to join Australian Stuart Appleby as the only three-time victors since the event moved to Kapalua in 1999. Entering the holiday season, the two-time major champion has finished second at the Hero World Challenge and T2 at the Baycurrent Classic in his last two events. Looking to earn his first win anywhere since lifting the 2022 Wanamaker Trophy at Southern Hills, his biggest victory of 2024 was welcoming his first child, a girl, in October. Thomas, party of three!

Ludvig Åberg (+1600) reminded gamers in the 2024 edition that first-time participants rarely factor at the Plantation Course at Kapalua. Fresh off his first PGA TOUR win at the 2023 edition of The RSM Classic, the Swede needed 63 in the final round to crack the top 50 (T47) in his maiden voyage. The only winner on debut was Daniel Chopra in 2008. With four loops under his belt, I would expect the 25-year-old to be firmly in contention in year two. Knee surgery after the TOUR Championship in early September saw him respond with T17 in defense on Sea Island in November and cash solo sixth at the Hero World Challenge in December.

Like most at the top of the odds board, Patrick Cantlay (+1800) does not miss many cuts, and he will not have to worry about the 36-hole chop on Maui. All 60 players get four loops to round into shape for 2025. The last time the Californian was in the winner’s circle was the 2022 BMW Championship. The trip to Maui signifies his consistency and rewards his weekly top finishes, and his results at Kapalua follow. Finishing fourth twice in six previous trips, he’s never posted a round above par and has not collected a check worse than T16. One of the best on TOUR making birdies on par 5s, he will have 16 chances this week to get 2025 off to a prosperous start.

The savvy social-media followers are already aware that Viktor Hovland (+2200) posted on Instagram what appears to be an x-ray of a broken toe from the holiday season. One of the longest and hilliest courses used on TOUR, the Plantation layout is already a sturdy walk for those with 10 working toes. “Beware the injured golfer” is a popular refrain, but each tournament and course create a different story. Winless in 2024, the Norwegian returns to competition for the first time since the TOUR Championship and to a course where he has not cracked the top 17 in four previous trips.

Sungjae Im (+2200) makes his fifth consecutive trip to Kapalua. The 26-year-old has never posted a four-round total worse than 19-under and has cashed T13 or better in his four appearances on Maui. A winner in his native Korea in April, he posted eight top-10 paydays and 14 top-25 efforts in 20 made cuts in 2024. A winner in Las Vegas in a shootout in the fall of 2021, Im makes birdies for fun and avoids crooked numbers on the card. Two starts late in 2024 resulted in T13 at the Baycurrent Classic and T9 at the Hero World Challenge.

The bronze medalist from the Paris Olympics, Hideki Matsuyama (+2200) won twice last season, at The Genesis Invitational and FedEx St. Jude Championship. A disappointing T46 at the Baycurrent Classic in his native Japan was mitigated with T2 three weeks later at the Dunlop Phoenix on the Japan Golf Tour. When healthy, the Japanese star and his adroit short game reside at the top of these lists. Placing in the top four in his first three visits to Maui, a paycheck of T13 is the best result over his four years and includes a career-worst 58th-place finish in 2023.

Defending champion Chris Kirk (+9000) would join Appleby and Geoff Ogilvy as the only players to successfully defend the title at Kapalua.

Note: Players qualified but not entered this week include Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry and Scottie Scheffler.

FedExCup Fall champions include Procore Championship winner Patton Kizzire (+25000), Sanderson Farms Championship winner Kevin Yu (+19000), Black Desert Championship winner Matt McCarty (+15000), Baycurrent Classic winner Nico Echavarria (+15000), World Wide Technology Championship winner Austin Eckroat (+7500) and RSM Classic winner Maverick McNealy (+5000).

Here's a look at the odds for the rest of the limited field, with prices via DraftKings Sportsbook:

• +3000: Tony Finau, Sam Burns, Corey Conners
• +4000: Akshay Bhatia, Adam Scott, Wyndham Clark, Sahith Theegala, Robert MacIntyre, Russell Henley
• +4500: Byeong Hun An, Max Greyserman
• +5000: Cameron Young, Si Woo Kim, Maverick McNealy, Keegan Bradley, Davis Thompson
• +5500: Taylor Pendrith, J.T. Poston
• +6000: Jason Day, Alex Noren, Jason Day
• +7000: Christian Bezuidenhout, Brian Harman, Will Zalatoris, Nick Dunlap, Max Homa
• +7500: Billy Horschel, Austin Eckroat, Matt Fitzpatrick, Jake Knapp, Denny McCarthy
• +9000: Aaron Rai, Eric Cole, Harry Hall
• +11000: Stephan Jaeger, Sepp Straka
• +12000: Thomas Detry
• +15000: Cam Davis, Tom Hoge, Nico Echavarria, Matt McCarty
• +19000: Adam Hadwin, Nick Taylor, Kevin Yu, Jhonattan Vegas
• +25000: Patton Kizzire, Matthieu Pavon
• +30000: Chris Gotterup
• +35000: Brice Garnett, Rafael Campos, Davis Riley
• +70000: Peter Malnati

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