Dec 30, 2024

DFS Dish: How Scottie Scheffler’s withdrawal impacts DFS strategy at Kapalua

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Written by Will Gray

A minor bit of timing meant that Scottie Scheffler’s unexpected withdrawal from the field for The Sentry had bigger ramifications for the DFS community than circles.

Sure, Scheffler’s hand injury and subsequent surgery had a ripple effect through the betting odds for the first leg of 2025’s Opening Drive. Scheffler was a +400 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook before the injury news broke, and now Xander Schauffele paces the field at +475 – with no one else priced below +1000.

But because all bets on Scheffler become “no action” with the injury, it’s effectively a wash. Oddsmakers had plenty of time to re-price the 60-man field in Maui, and bettors are essentially betting into a fresh slate of prices now that tournament week has arrived.

The situation is a bit more complicated for DFS contests, though, as salaries had already been assigned for DraftKings contests before the Scheffler news broke – meaning that he is still listed as the top salary in the field at $11,900. The other salaries, from Xander Schauffele at $11,000 to the trio of longshots at $6,000, were all priced under the assumption that the world No. 1 would be in the mix.


Xander Schauffele’s best moments on the PGA TOUR
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      Xander Schauffele’s best moments on the PGA TOUR


      So what does that mean for your DFS prospects, and how should you calibrate your lineups accordingly?

      For one, expect heavy ownership on Schauffele at what will be perceived as a discount. If DFS salaries were re-priced entirely, like betting odds, Schauffele would surely be priced higher than $11,000. Instead, he’s effectively available at a bit of a bargain – which goes along nicely with his two-major form from 2024 and affinity for the Plantation Course that includes a 2019 win. But keep in mind that should you top your roster with the "X-man," you’ll have plenty of company in larger contests.

      Scheffler’s inclusion in the salary distribution also means that DFS players won’t have to spread things quite as thin toward the bottom of the roster. It’s a dynamic that would already be in place with the limited field, but it’s even more pronounced with Scheffler and Rory McIlroy (not entered) listed as two of the three players (along with Schauffele) priced above $10,000. Quite simply, everyone you’re competing with will be able to open up the purse strings a bit more than usual!

      So who are some players you should look to consider for a season-opening lineup that will create some differentiation while also giving you a shot at a high-performing roster? Let’s take a look at some of the top options ranging from $8,000 to $10,000:

      • Justin Thomas ($9,700): A two-time Sentry champ who is eager to break a winless drought that dates back to 2022; Thomas came close to winning at the end of 2024 and loves his time in Hawaii.
      • Sungjae Im ($9,500): Im set a tournament record last year for birdies. If he finds a way to limit the squares on the scorecard, he’ll be in the mix.
      • Wyndham Clark ($8,800): The former U.S. Open champ is one of the best putters in the field, ranking 19th last season on the greens, and he closed last year with a 10-under 63.
      • Sahith Theegala ($8,600): Buoyed by his Presidents Cup debut, Theegala has all the shots and returns to a course where he was runner-up a year ago.

      Of course, there’s always room for a deep sleeper – even among a 60-man field. Below are a few of the top options priced below $7,000 this week:

      • Will Zalatoris ($6,900): Admittedly, it’s a bit of a head-turn to see him priced at this level. There are plenty of question marks for Zalatoris, as he continues to climb back to 100 percent health, but the upside is pretty significant – especially at this price.
      • Thomas Detry ($6,700): The Belgian was a (relative) mess last season with his irons but heated up in a big way on the greens, finishing 10th in Strokes Gained: Putting in 2024. It won’t take much of a bump from his irons to put him in contention.
      • Adam Hadwin ($6,200): Similar to Detry, Hadwin has some shaky ball-striking stats but can heat up on the greens. These are the largest on TOUR – it could be a big factor for the Canadian as he looks to jump-start his season with a bunch of birdies.

      So knowing that you can only roster one-tenth of this week’s field, how will you stretch your budget in Hawaii? Here’s a look at how I would build a lineup this week for the season opener, keeping my six-man roster below the $50,000 salary cap – with an eye on low-score specialists like J.T. Poston and reigning PGA TOUR Rookie of the Year Nick Dunlap, who I expect to make the most of his Maui debut:

      • Xander Schauffele ($11,000)
      • Wyndham Clark ($8,800)
      • Davis Thompson ($7,900)
      • J.T. Poston ($7,600)
      • Brian Harman ($7,400)
      • Nick Dunlap ($7,200)

      For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER today.

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