Betting 101: The battle between recent form and course history

When it comes to betting on golf, the handicapping debate (both for those setting the markets and those trying to bet into them) always includes the variables of recent form and course history.

Which carries more importance: the player who has three top 10s in the last four starts of the current season, or the player who has three top 10s from his last four visits to the upcoming course?

The answer is both are important, but bettors can certainly have a soft spot for a horse who dominates a course, particularly in the place markets. If you are focused solely on the outright result, current form could be where you lean.

It’s uncanny how many examples are out there of PGA TOUR players having happy hunting grounds. It’s almost a weird connection to other sports and home-field advantage. Once a player gets to a mental place of extreme comfort, whatever ails them in the here and now can often disappear.

And while all good things will eventually come to an end, riding course form until it does can be a lucrative proposition when it comes to high finishes.

Knowing that Scottie Scheffler’s last four results at TPC Scottsdale are 3-1-1-7 is clearly important, and it would be hard to miss in the analysis for the WM Phoenix Open.

But did you know Charley Hoffman has finished inside the top 40 at TPC San Antonio on 11 of 14 attempts including a win, three seconds and a third? Tuck that one away for early April.

In those 11 seasons, Hoffman made the TOUR Championship just three times. He kept his card without issue, but it wasn’t week-to-week form that would’ve had him on the radar in Texas.

Brian Harman has never won at TPC River Highlands, but he has finished inside the top 10 in six of his last seven starts there. On those six occasions, only once did he have a top 10 from the prior three starts of that season. So when looking at top-10 or top-20 markets, or even prices for individual players to make the cut, course history may be an outsized factor in your handicap.

Keep in mind, though, that you’re not the only person to notice trends in either form or course history. Oddsmakers will also weigh these factors significantly when pricing up markets, so your job as a bettor is to identify where price discrepancies may still arise – and wager accordingly.

The argument for a correlation between recent form and winning outright is definitely one to look at. In the 2024 FedExCup Season – prior to the FedExCup Fall – there were 39 PGA TOUR events. If we take away the opening three tournaments, where current form had not yet been established, that leaves 36.

In those 36, the winner had had at least one top-20 finish in his proceeding three TOUR starts in all but seven occasions. One of those seven, one was playing his first event of the season and another had a T3 in the fourth-to-last start before the win.

So before you fire away on your outright selection, be sure to check their most recent starts! And if they have some course form for good measure, you could be on a winner.

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