Betting 101: How to bet First Round Leader markets

While the outright betting market on a golf tournament routinely takes four days to finalize, there is a way to attack the opening round for a quicker payout – the First Round Leader market.

Commonly referred to as an FRL bet, this is a market on who will be leading at the conclusion of the opening round of a tournament.

Given the depth of talent in any TOUR-sanctioned event, the number of potential winners of this market is much higher than those who can keep it together over four rounds. Nearly everyone in a given field is capable of going low on a given day. As a result, the chances of a longshot coming in also become more probable.

You should also be aware that many – not all – sportsbooks will also reduce your winnings in the event of a tie. They will employ “dead heat rules” which vary, so check before you bet.

Most would cut your stakes, rather than odds. If you bet $10 on Player A at +10000 (100-1) and he ties with one other, just $5 of your original bet stands. So, you’d win a $5 bet at +10000.

If you bet $30 on Player A at +10000 (100-1) and he tied with two other players, just one-third of your original stake stands. So, a $10 bet at +10000.

This may make it seem more like a lottery pick. If the field of contenders, or probable winners, is larger, wouldn’t it be prudent to avoid the market?

Perhaps – but with a little educated strategy, you can make clearer selections and regularly sweat longshot chances that pay off with some frequency.

The reality is there are plenty of players who are known as fast starters, even if not all of them are closers. The PGA TOUR keeps stats with which any FRL bettor should become acquainted.

Round 1 Scoring Average: Quite simply this shows who is regularly performing the best on the scorecard in opening rounds. You might not be surprised to hear the top three players in 2024 were Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa and Xander Schauffele – but did you have Rico Hoey on your top five leaderboard? He was a first-round leader in Puerto Rico. Beau Hossler was a FRL twice and, not surprisingly, ranked inside the top 10 on TOUR in Round 1 Scoring.

Rounds in the 60s: This stat shows the players who are regulars at going low. They might not be as good every week as your Scheffler types, but when they still have a high percentage of low rounds.

Birdie or Better Percentage: Again, you want to know who can constantly make birdies and eagles. While the odd bogey can be a problem, on the days these players have a good round without mistakes, they’re likely to score very well.

Strokes Gained: Approach: The theory goes that an elite ball-striker who gives themselves lots of looks at birdie from close range can overcome a weakness in putting every so often, particularly over one round rather than four. So, leaning on great approach players can be a great base.

Strokes Gained: Putting: If you are looking for a wild card, you can try to pick the elite putters. If you catch the day that they are reasonable on approach and making all their putts you can get lucky, but beware, a lot of their great putting stats can come from par saves rather than birdies.

Outside of player profiles and stats, it is imperative you also consider the tee times of players and the weather conditions of the opening round. In golf, on many occasions, the field is split into two waves over the opening two rounds meaning half the field will go off in the morning and the other half the afternoon.

If high winds or rain, or just tougher conditions in general, are expected in the afternoon, it would be prudent to pick your FRL selections from the morning tee times. This can be the same on poa-style greens that slow and get bumpier throughout the day.

Conversely, if poor conditions are expected early with things clearing up later, the afternoon wave might have a better shot at going low. Perhaps they have a softened-up golf course following rain that was an issue for those playing through it. Or even just simply higher temperatures, which allow the ball to fly farther. Both tee times and weather forecast info can be found at PGATOUR.com.

Good luck with all your FRL bets in 2025!

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