Prop Farm: Bettors look to longshots in Playoffs push

The field at the FedEx St. Jude Championship has been reserved for only the top 70 in FedExCup points and the Playoffs kick off ensure things are heating up on the golf course and at the betting window.

“Big week and the punters are swinging for the fences,” said Tristan Davis, senior manager at Mandalay Bay Race and Sportsbook in Las Vegas. “Last week we saw a few shy away. I think they were preparing themselves for a big three weeks coming up.”

Davis went on to explain further, saying, "Tommy Fleetwood (+2200) and Sahith Theegala (+4500) have been our best bet players for the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Akshay Bhatia has gotten some support at +8000 along with Austin Eckroat at +12500. And finally, out of left field, we have taken some notable bets on Mackenzie Hughes at +15000," he said.

It is interesting to see this pattern with world No. 1, Scottie Scheffler coming off a heroic charge to Olympic gold, along with all the other top stars in the field.

“It’s all recreational play but quite a different story to what we have seen in many weeks this year with punters usually turning their attention to the top of the list in terms of price,” Davis continued.

Evidently bettors haven’t completely forgotten about Scheffler but opinions do appear to be all over the map as we head into week 1 of the Playoffs at TPC Southwind. Long-time Las Vegas golf oddsmaker, Jeff Sherman weighed in: “We’ve been bookended this week with Scheffler No. 1 in ticket count and No. 1 in money," he said, "but we’re also seeing action on golfers at +20000 or longer.”

I played one long bomb this week and that was on Ben Griffin. He has three recent top-10 finishes to his credit, a runner-up at the RBC Canadian Open, fifth at the John Deere Classic, and was seventh last week at the Wyndham Championship. Certainly, the competition has been elevated this week but Griffin remains fourth in this field for Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 24 rounds as well as No. 1 in SG: Putting (Bermudagrass). He could be outclassed in this arena, yes, but he also seems to have the game that fits this course and is in good current form.

Just recently inducted into the Sports Gambling Hall of Fame in Las Vegas, Nick Bogdanovich, is also seeing a wide variety of action. “Corey Conners and Justin Thomas are our biggest liabilities on guys who aren’t at three digits.”

But as far as the long shots? The trend around town continued. “Taylor Moore is a longer one that is getting hit,” said Bogdanovich.

And they haven’t forgotten about the seven-time winner in 2024 either. “They’re betting Scottie Scheffler YES for a top-10 finish like it’s free money,” Bogdanovich added.

Davis at Mandalay Bay noted earlier that bettors are digging deep this week and referred to some action as “out of left field.” Bogdanovich has seen some of the obscure too. “Believe it or not, the Peter Malnati versus Stephan Jaeger matchup, might be our highest handle for any pre-tournament matchup.”

I asked Nick to clarify, if he meant Malnati to beat Jaeger head-to-head? “No, just really good two-way action right now,” explained the Las Vegas native.

Pretty crazy. It seems the betting on the Wyndham Championship really could be considered the calm before the storm. Other than my one flyer on Griffin, I didn’t go too far down the oddsboard but I did stay away from the big three at the top. I played Collin Morikawa, who Drew O’Dell, data analyst at BetMGM, points out, “He is third in highest handle at 10.0% but is only responsible for 5.7% of the ticket count.”

“Morikawa is also our third biggest liability, behind only Scheffler and Rory McIlroy,” O’Dell said.

After Morikawa, I went a little further down and landed on recent bronze medalist, Hideki Matsuyama, who finished runner-up here at this golf course in 2021. Sticking to the theme of accuracy off the tee, strong iron play and great ability to scramble, I also played Russell Henley and Billy Horschel to round out a five-pack of outright winner wagers this week.

The wise guys have made their presence known this week as well.

“As for the tournament matchups, the sharps have come out to play,” said Davis from his post on the south end of the Las Vegas Strip.

“Jordan Spieth, who is usually in the eyes of the public, has made the switch to catching the eyes of the sharps. He had been -120 and moved to -145 to beat Tom Hoge.

“Victor Perez has gone from -110 to -115 to beat Robert MacIntyre and Cameron Young, who had glimpses of a near win last week, has been our best bet matchup this week. For him to beat Alex Noren has been -135 to -160. All matchups have been sharp.”

Sherman has seen some of it as well. “The only outrights the sharps have taken thus far are Eric Cole and Brendon Todd," he said.

Bettors are acting like a crop duster this week in the Prop Farm as I’m not sure there isn’t an inch of the betting board that hasn’t been covered. Let the postseason begin.