Benny and the Bets: Ahead of Playoffs opener, is FedExCup a three-man race?

To win the lottery, you first need a ticket. And while 70 players each have one as we head toward the start of the FedExCup Playoffs, it seems the big three at the top have a fistful more tickets than others when it comes to trying to win the season-long title.

Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele are the clear standouts of 2024 and enter the FedExCup Playoffs primed to fight it out for the FedExCup. Three-time champion Rory McIlroy is not far behind them.

Scheffler is the -110 betting favorite with DraftKings to win the overall prize, with Schauffele at +400 and McIlroy +450. From there, the oddsmakers don’t see many real contenders.

But despite the dominance of those at the top, victory is not yet assured, and bettors can still find avenues around the big dogs if you are chasing a late-season payday. While the FedExCup is the big prize (and $18 million), the first two individual Playoffs events are also up for grabs.

After seven wins this season including a major, THE PLAYERS Championship and an Olympic gold medal, Scheffler is so far ahead on the season points list that Schauffele is the only player who can pass him for top spot this week despite points being multiplied.

To do so would take victory while seeing Scheffler finish outside the top 40. Only once since November of 2022 has the Texan finished outside the top 40, notching a T41 at the U.S. Open.

But while his lead is massive in the points, his best (and likely) case scenario is to start the TOUR Championship at 10-under, just two clear of second place in the standings. You could argue he should be 20-under, but you won’t get far.

As a quick refresher, winners of each of the first two Playoffs events get 2,000 FedExCup points, four times the amount typically awarded during the FedExCup Regular Season (500). Points are quadrupled down the board for all finishes allowing for players outside the top 50 a realistic chance to make it to the BMW Championship in Denver, Colorado, at Castle Pines (top 50) and for those outside the top 30 to make it to the TOUR Championship.

Points won in Playoffs events are added to those for the Regular Season. After the field is reduced to 30 players for the TOUR Championship, the field is seeded based on FedExCup points and given starting strokes.

No. 1 in the standings starts at 10-under at East Lake with No. 2 at 8-under, No. 3 at 7-under, No. 4 at 6-under and No. 5 at 5-under. Nos. 6-10 (4-under). Nos. 11-15 (3-under), Nos. 16-20 (2-under), Nos. 21-25 (1-under) and Nos. 26-30 (even par) round out the starting positions.

Scheffler has been to East Lake as the No. 1 seed each of the last two years, only to falter at the final hurdle. And as it stands now, the two guys behind him will have reason to be confident. While Scheffler has three top-six results at East Lake, without winning, the chasers have had more success.

Schauffele won at East Lake on debut as a rookie in 2017. While he hasn’t won since, he also hasn’t been worse that T7 in seven tries. His form line of 2-4-T5-T2-2-T7-1 is crazy impressive.

McIlroy has wins there in 2016, 2019 and 2022 and further top fives in 2014 and 2023.

The big unknown is how much the recent restoration of the property, to get it back to a classic Donald Ross feel, could affect performance. The sightlines and corridors are similar but the greens, bunkering and green surrounds are all new.

“The course looked like it was in a fairy-tale. But it looked different. The greens are going to be different,” Schauffele said of East Lake. “You look at like a Colonial where they're new, greens are concrete, balls are bouncing everywhere. That's not how we're used to playing East Lake. We're used to being rewarded if you're in the fairway and you can't bounce a ball up any hole because the kikuyu is going to stick… and I think they changed the grass around the greens and on the greens.

“I'm looking at it like I'm going to be there for the first time mentality.”

I called Schauffele to win the FedExCup at the start of the season, so I won’t drop off him now. I learned my lesson after bailing on him the week before the PGA Championship despite saying he’d win there for the months leading in. I’ll stick with him this time.

But I also have love for McIlroy... Just as a +1000 outright this week in Memphis, rather than at East Lake.

While I can see Scheffler and Schauffele trying to conserve some energy in the hot and humid Memphis conditions knowing their positions at the top aren’t really under threat, McIlroy has a little more to prove. He also ranks second on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, a big factor at TPC Southwind.

In fact, if we just break it down to who might make a move this week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship to get an idea… well, the last nine TOUR-sanctioned events held at TPC Southwind saw five of the winners rank first in SG: Tee-to-Green that week and the other four were all inside the top six of the metric.

Here are the top three players this PGA TOUR season in SG: Tee-to-Green.

1. Scottie Scheffler +2.723

2. Rory McIlroy +1.621

3. Xander Schauffele +1.619

Now the gap in the odds starts to make even more sense.

Outside the top three, Collin Morikawa (fourth in FedExCup standings) sits next on the FedExCup betting line at +900 before things drop off dramatically. Ludvig Åberg is +2800 before Sungjae Im and a former FedExCup winner Patrick Cantlay sit +4500. Every other option is +6000 or higher.

Åberg is sixth in the standings and could be a flyer to consider. The problem is while he’s been great, he’s also shown his lack of experience when it really mattered. He’s come close many times without grabbing a second TOUR win.

If you are looking for a longshot, perhaps Cantlay is your man. While he is yet to win this season, his recent results have started trending in the right direction. Two top-fives and a top 25 push “Patty Ice” back into contention. He was a runner up at TPC Southwind last year and is a former two-time winner of the BMW Championship.

Last season Viktor Hovland stormed through the Playoffs, winning after being seventh in the regular season standings and +1200. This season he ranks 57th coming in and needs a miracle at +20000. Stay away.

If we go back to the well for SG: Tee-to-Green, then we see Hideki Matsuyama (fourth) and Tony Finau (fifth) on the list. If they bring their best to Memphis and improve on their eighth and 14th place in the standings then the +6500 and +8000 FedExCup odds start to look better.

What about Justin Thomas? He’s won at TPC Southwind AND East Lake before, but starts 19th in the standings and currently +10000. If he finds his old form, stranger things have happened.

The bottom line is while Scheffler might feel inevitable such has his season gone, he’s not the one to bet on to win it all. Not yet anyway.

Benny's betting card

• Overall FedExCup winner: Xander Schauffele +400

FedEx St. Jude Championship (via BetMGM)

• Outright: Rory McIlroy +1000
• Top 5: Patrick Cantlay +500
• Top 10: Adam Scott +333
• Top 20: Tony Finau +105

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