Odds Outlook: Fresh off Scottish Open win, Rory McIlroy favored over Scottie Scheffler at The Open

The 151st Open Championship provides the final major test of the 2023 season. Hoylake will host the 13th Open Championship contested on the peninsula between the River Dee and River Mersey abutting the Irish Sea, and the week begins with the most recent winner returning as the outright betting favorite.

World No. 2 Rory McIlroy (+700) won his only Open Championship on these links in 2014, and he starts the week as the man to beat in the eyes of oddsmakers at BetMGM Sportsbook. The 143rd edition in 2014 played 7,312 yards to Par 72. McIlroy paced the field, posting 17 under to win by two shots. The 2023 edition will stretch to 7,382 yards and play to par 71 as No. 17 has been changed to a par 3. Finishing birdie-birdie last week to win at The Renaissance Club, McIlroy became the first player ever to win the Scottish Open, Irish Open, and Open Championship. Ever. His victory last week was his sixth consecutive top-10 payday on TOUR. His solo third last year at St Andrews was his fifth top-10 result from his previous seven Open Championships and sixth overall from 12 as a professional.

Last week Scottie Scheffler (+800) finished T3, hitting the top five for the seventh consecutive event, but it wasn’t enough to keep McIlroy from passing him as the betting favorite. It was the fifth time, from six tries, he ended Sunday on the podium, and he’s now stretched his immaculate run to T12 or better in 18 events running. Playing the U.K. events in back-to-back weeks for only the third time, the Texan has proven to be a quick study regardless of continent, setup, or history. Making his Open Championship debut in 2021 at Royal St. George’s, he posted T8 and followed that last year with T21 at St. Andrews. The 2022 Masters winner has nine top-10 paydays from 13 major championship weekends.

Reigning Masters champion Jon Rahm (+1200) will be looking to add another major championship trophy to his mantle this season. The Spaniard has procured just one top-10 at the world’s oldest championship from six previous tries, T3 at Royal St. George’s in 2021. His last foray into the top 10 was T10 at the U.S. Open in June, though he has not played since a missed cut at the Travelers the following week. Well-rested with four wins on the season and 16 consecutive cuts made in major championships, he should be in the conversation this week.

Looking to join Tiger Woods (2005-06; not entered) and Padraig Harrington (2007-08; +12500) as recent back-to-back winners, Cameron Smith (+1600) will look to add more history to his resume at this event. The winner last year at the 150th edition at St Andrews, the Australian has already flashed the goods in the majors this season. He has made each of the first three cuts, and after signing for T9 at Oak Hill in May, he followed with solo fourth at Los Angeles CC in June. He’s also made the cut in his last four Open Championships.

Brooks Koepka (+2000) and his penchant for major championship golf has been well illustrated by his five titles, including earlier this spring. Making his ninth start at the Open Championship, he’ll be looking to paint the top 10 for the fifth time in his last seven starts. Royal Liverpool won’t be a mystery, as he cashed T67 in 2014. The reigning PGA Champion is healthy and will look to add another top finish in the majors after T2 at the Masters and T17 at the U.S. Open.

Viktor Hovland (+2000) earned his first top-10 paycheck from major championship golf at this event last season with T4 at St Andrews. Looking for his first major title, he posted 74 paired with McIlroy in the final game on Sunday. Lesson learned as he hit the top 10 at the Masters with a T7 and followed by a runner-up at the PGA Championship, his best finish in a major. The Norwegian has never cashed outside of T12 in two Open Championships.

A runner-up at Hoylake in 2014, Rickie Fowler (+2200) returns to The Open after a one-year hiatus. In his previous 11 visits, Fowler has played the weekend 10 times, including the last seven times he’s had his passport stamped. Enjoying links golf, he’s cashed T31 or better in eight of 10 weekends with the best of the bunch on the Hoylake layout. The winner in Detroit four weeks ago won’t have to answer any questions about winning on TOUR for a while. Now, the questions will shift to winning a major championship.

Tommy Fleetwood (+2200) will look to become the first English champion golfer of the year since Sir Nick Faldo at Muirfield in 1992. No pressure! T33 or better in his last five on the links of the U.K., the Englishman cashed T4 last year and was six shots adrift of Shane Lowry’s (+2800) runaway victory in 2019. Repeatedly knocking on the door at this event, and this spring and summer, he’s picked up T6, T5, and has lost a playoff among three of his last four starts worldwide.

Here's a look at the BetMGM odds on other notable players, including a trio at +2500 each seeking their first major title this week in England:

+2500: Patrick Cantlay, Tyrrell Hatton, Xander Schauffele

+2800: Collin Morikawa, Shane Lowry

+3300: Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson

+4000: Matt Fitzpatrick

+4500: Tom Kim

+5000: Bryson DeChambeau, Cameron Young, Justin Rose, Max Homa, Tony Finau, Wyndham Clark

+5500: Sam Burns

+6600: Justin Thomas, Min Woo Lee, Robert MacIntyre, Talor Gooch, Patrick Reed

+8000: Adam Scott, Hideki Matsuyama

+9000: Corey Conners, Sungjae Im

+10000: Jason Day, Keegan Bradley, Louis Oosthuizen, Ryan Fox

+12500: Brian Harman, Denny McCarthy, Joaquin Niemann, Padraig Harrington, Russell Henley, Si Woo Kim, Byeong-Hun An

+15000: Branden Grace, Gary Woodland, Sahith Theegala, Nicolai Hojgaard

How it works:

• Field of 156 players.

• The top 70 players and ties will play the final two rounds.

• Entered are the top 49 players of the OWGR top 50. Only No. 14 Will Zalatoris (back injury) is not competing.

• Prize purse of $16.5 million, along with 600 FedExCup points.

• The winner receives the claret jug, Championship Gold Medal, $3 million (USD), and will be named Champion Golfer of the Year.

• The leading amateur will win the Silver Medal.

Please circle back tomorrow as I post more details in Horses for Courses plus the Betting Stat Pack.

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