Why I’m believing (again) in Rory McIlroy as The Open favorite

For months I’ve been fading Rory McIlroy. Pre-tournament, during events, in between play – and it had proven prophetic. Something was off with the three-time FedExCup champion, particularly from the Masters onwards.

Well, he finally shoved it back in my face last week.

Simply put, McIlroy didn’t seem to have the fire I’ve seen up close many times before. He didn’t have the focused drive. The real deep-down energy to compete. Most tellingly, he was lacking the same level of personal confidence that would leave me in awe when watching inside the ropes over the last decade or more.

Heading into the Genesis Scottish Open, things felt no different. I didn’t see value in his favoritism before things kicked off and publicly faded him after the first round. Had I been on deck to do Draws & Fades after the subsequent second and third rounds, I would’ve advocated a fade again as his in-play price dwindled.

For a large chunk of Sunday’s efforts, it appeared as if the fade was again the correct play. McIlroy’s trusty tee shots were going missing in the high winds. He hit just three fairways.

But I was wrong this time. He rode some luck with lies on a couple errant shots, but more importantly his putter turned up when it mattered. And it could be just the turning point McIlroy needs to break his major drought.

His 5-iron into the 17th on Sunday was sublime, but it was bettered by his blistered 2-iron into 18. Making both putts for birdies to secure victory was vintage McIlroy. It made me start to believe again.

But it was his words that really bring confidence. After the round McIlroy drew parallels to the 2013 Australian Open, when he trailed reigning Masters champ Adam Scott by a shot with two holes to play and went on to win in similar fashion.

“I haven't thought about that tournament in probably years but when I got myself into this position today, that's the first thing that popped into my head,” McIlroy said. “All those memories and those experiences, they stand by you. And that just give me a good feeling going into those last couple holes to try to do something special.”

Now he needs to bring that confident version of himself to Hoylake. Let’s face it… he may NEVER get a better chance than what he faces right now as we gear up for The 151st Open this week at Royal Liverpool.

McIlroy begins the week as the +700 outright favorite with BetMGM. And there are plenty of reasons to like the Northern Irishman. But for every pro, you can manufacture a con.

The trick for McIlroy is believing only in the pros. But for the benefit of those looking to place a wager or build a DFS lineup, let’s look at both sides of the coin.

PRO: McIlroy won at Royal Liverpool in 2014.

It was a clinic in 2014 with McIlroy leading the way with an opening 6-under 66 before adding rounds of 66, 68 and 71 to win by two. He led by four at the 36-hole mark and six at the 54-hole junction. When challenged for the lead by Rickie Fowler and Sergio Garcia on Sunday, McIlroy responded with clutch play. There are nothing but good memories along these links.

CON: McIlroy hasn’t closed out a major since, despite numerous chances.

Since the last of his four major wins, the 2014 PGA Championship, McIlroy has 19 top 10s in majors without winning. We could dissect them all, but let’s focus on a couple of recent blown chances. Last year’s Open Championship at St. Andrews saw him start the final round with the lead, hit all 18 greens in regulation, and still get lapped by Cameron Smith. Last month’s U.S. Open was also there for the taking as McIlroy joined the lead with a birdie on Sunday’s opening hole. But it would be his last, and he’d lose by a shot to Wyndham Clark. The killer blow coming when he missed the par-5 14th green with a wedge and made bogey.

PRO: McIlroy has momentum from his Genesis Scottish Open win

Absolutely he does. Not just from winning, but how he won. Clutch birdies on the final two holes with full knowledge of what was needed was high level stuff. He also has six top 10s recently on the PGA TOUR.

CON: The last Open champion to win after winning in their previous start was Jordan Spieth in 2017.

The last Open champion to win after winning the week before was Phil Mickelson in 2013. It’s great to have momentum, but winning is hard…and winning back-to-back is even harder.

PRO: McIlroy’s tee-to-green game is stellar right now and his putter turned up in Scotland.

Indeed, McIlroy led the field at Renaissance in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and SG: Off-the-Tee. He also led in driving distance. He was seventh in SG: Approach and 34th in SG: Putting, including being third on the greens in Sunday’s final round. McIlroy’s season ranks see him leading the PGA TOUR in driving distance, second in SG: Tee-to-Green, third in SG: Total and Off-the-Tee, sixth in SG: Approach and ninth in SG: Around-the-Green.

CON: One swallow doesn’t make a summer.

When it comes to McIlroy’s putting, one wonders if Sunday was a turnaround or an anomaly. McIlroy made 113’5” of putts on Sunday, much of that in clutch moments. He also made 124’11” worth on Thursday. But his combined efforts of Rounds 2 and 3 were 91’4” worth of made putts. McIlroy ranks 83rd on the PGA TOUR in SG: Putting and there are still the putting woes from The Open last year and this year’s U.S. Open to worry about.

We could keep the pro/cons lists going for a while, but at the end of the day you need to decide if you believe in Rory. He’s put off his press conference at The Open as he knuckles down to his preparations, no doubt balancing some rest into the routine.

I’m going to take the glass-half-full approach. Sure there was some luck involved in McIlroy’s close at Renaissance but you’d be hard-pressed finding any TOUR winner who didn’t have a touch of luck on the way to victory. When the time came in Scotland, as it has many times in the last five months, and beyond, McIlroy took it.

After walking off Los Angeles Country Club a shot short of victory I heard McIlroy say to one of his confidants – “it was like St. Andrews all over again.” That fed my fade fire as… the thing is… he played like it was only a matter of time for something to go wrong.

But on a windy afternoon in Scotland, when a hometown crowd favorite in Robert McIntyre came to take it from him, McIlroy met the moment. And he met it with a skillset foreign to not only us weekend hackers but to a vast majority of the players he competes against week in and week out.

After a long time not believing, I’m ready to again.