Golfbet Insider: RBC Canadian Open

When we kick around a sexy phrase like roster management, in the very least it invokes sizable parts patience and caution. And boy, don’t they sound like fun, too!

Truth be told, when it comes to a successful experience in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, the steady and precise decisions typically get the job done in the long haul. Sure, there will be better among the similarly steady and precise decisions, but the objective is to retain a position to always have a puncher’s chance to prevail.

This is the mindset in Segment 4 that launches with this week’s RBC Canadian Open.

Twelve tournaments through the TOUR Championship contribute, including the U.S. Open, The Open Championship and all three FedExCup Playoffs events. The Travelers Championship is the only remaining Designated event but its FedExCup points distribution is equal to all non-Designateds among non-majors; 500 points to the winner, 300 to the runner-up and so on.

While our eyes get big for the majors and the slight boost in FedEx bonus points, the biggest difference to Segment 4 this season is that all three Playoffs events guarantee four rounds to all who compete. In other words, there is no cut in any of them, and remember, only the top 70 qualify for the series. What’s more, FedExCup points remain quadrupled, so bonuses will as well for the finishes of your R4 starters.

To tame and tackle Segment 4, consider a two-part plan right now.

First, start at the back and end-load your starts because golfers can score more points in the Playoffs. The RBC Canadian Open presents a relatively soft open, but I acknowledged in my comment in Expert Picks that I’m holstering the start for the No. 1 in my Power Rankings, two-time defending champion Rory McIlroy. This implies that I’m probably going to want to burn him in at least one major and the last two Playoffs events, but I might reserve all three for the sprint to the finish. And none of that has anything to do with the real-time forces in play on the global stage or any other relevant intangible that always impacts us at any time.

Ideally, open and navigate Segment 4 with six guys you don’t think you’re going to want or need for all three stops in the Playoffs, but all the while retaining at least one start for studs for East Lake. Start getting a feel for the pulse of the guys at the very top of the FedExCup standings if you already haven’t.

Second, split your long-range outlook into two sections, with the first checkpoint at the Wyndham Championship that concludes the regular season. The objective is to enter the Playoffs within reach to issue the knockout blow.

A tip for all gamers is to log starts of your strongest opposition throughout Segment 4. I’ve done this for years. Even if it positions you to be in favor of just one start for one heavyweight, it could be worth it. Of course, all of this is retrievable at any time, but sometimes keeping records over time develops a stronger feel for momentum than dropping in on any data without said feel. This is particularly valuable in understanding gamer habits. Until you begin judging why it’s possible certain decisions are made, you’ll be playing a guessing game more than you will be getting the edge on the chess match.

POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD

Cameron Young (-145 = Top 20) … Because he didn’t appear in the Power Rankings proper, he’s not going to generate a ton of value on this page, but that’s OK. He’s a classic Power Rankings “plus.” Yes, he’s 17th in the Official World Golf Ranking, but he’s still only a PGA TOUR sophomore, so his class ain’t quite permanent. At the same time, after going 0-for-2 through Oak Hill and Muirfield Village, he’s champing at the bit to find something sustainable ahead of the U.S. Open. Given his special skill from tee to green on an unfamiliar course that will reward more par breakers than the unfamiliarity of Oak Hill yielded, go ahead and lean into a top 10 at Oakdale if you’d like. He’s +150 for that.

Odds were sourced on Wednesday, June 7, at 5:15 a.m. ET. For live odds, visit BetMGM.

ALSO STARRING

NOTE: These are notables who are not included in my Power Rankings or Sleepers. Connect with me on Twitter if you want analysis, insight and opinion for anyone else.

Matt Kuchar (+160 = Top 20) … With primary rough at five inches, his propensity to find fairways and economy in salvaging pars supports this nod. He has four top 20s in stroke-play competition in 2023 alone. Additionally, it might be surprising but it is true that he’s eighth on TOUR in par-5 scoring, so he can attack Oakdale from a number of perspectives and still instill confidence in our selection.

Keith Mitchell (-275 = Make the Cut) … Yeah, yeah, really exciting, I know, but what else do you want for a guy who arrives having failed to connect for a top-45 finish in his last six individual competitions? He’s +190 to miss the cut but I’m ice-cold in that prop for way too long and he’s way too good not to end the top-40 drought (-175).

Webb Simpson (+138 = Top 40) … Every time I get giddy about plus value for him for this finish, the kickback gets bigger! Sigh. He’s not on the Make/Miss-the-Cut board, so let’s limp in with a fraction of a unit on a track where maybe he can rekindle the magic of a ball-striker on a classic course. If there’s anything about which to get kind of excited, it’s that he’s T33 in par-5 scoring and there are three par 5s on Oakdale.

TAP-INS

NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.

PARLAY: Sahith Theegala, Matt Kuchar, Keith Mitchell (+140 = All to Make the Cut)
Aaron Baddeley (+138 = Top Australian)
Aaron Cockerill (+175 = Top 40)
Zecheng Dou (+500 = Top Asian)
Tommy Gainey (+400 = Top 40)
Cody Gribble (+333 = Top 40)
Maverick McNealy (+125 = Miss the Cut)
Adrian Meronk (+250 = Top Continental European)
Vincent Norrman #1 (+188 = Top Swedish)
Vincent Norrman #2 (+300 = Top Scandinavian)
Dylan Wu (+120 = Top 40)

RETURNING TO COMPETITION

Brendon Todd (+110 = Top 40) … “Rewarded” last week’s endorsement as a Sleeper (see Recap below) with an injured shoulder that forced him out during his second round. It was not specified on which side he experienced discomfort. The good news, of course, is that he’s already ready to get back inside the ropes on a course that rewards his precision off the tee.

NOTABLE WDs

Charley Hoffman, Luke List, Sam Stevens and Davis Thompson … All qualified for the U.S. Open this week, so they are opting for a break ahead of the major.

Davis Riley … Since capturing victory with partner Nick Hardy at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, Riley is 1-for-5 with a T54 at Memorial. He didn’t qualify for the U.S. Open, but he’s exempt into The Open Championship.

Byeong Hun An … This is the first early withdrawal of his career. He also withdrew early from final qualifying for the U.S. Open in Columbus, Ohio, on Monday. He hasn’t shared anything on social media to explain it, but he’s not required to, either. Hang in there.

Joseph Bramlett … He is/was No. 10 in the Power Rankings because he’s a great fit for Oakdale and he’s delivered strong performances all season. So it goes. Currently 68th in the FedExCup.

Sam Ryder … Completed 26 holes of final qualifying for the U.S. Open in Columbus before calling it quits.

Ben Griffin … He made the noise at TPC Sawgrass and settled for T35 but he’s gone 11 consecutive starts without a top 30.

Stephan Jaeger … Third early withdrawal in a little over two months but he’s stayed his usual busy self otherwise. At 74th in the FedExCup, that’s likely to continue.

Troy Merritt … He’s missed 13 consecutive cuts in individual competition and sits 140th in the FedExCup.

Dylan Frittelli … It already had been a rough go for the South African this season, and then he walked off Muirfield Village during his opening round due to an illness.

Zac Blair … This is his fourth early withdrawal since the Puerto Rico Open, so he’ll retain eight starts remaining on his Major Medical Extension.

Anders Albertson … He was in the field for a few minutes after it published before bowing out. It’s his sixth early withdrawal of the season and fourth since his last start in Puerto Rico. He’s fully exempt as a Korn Ferry Tour grad and will turn 30 on Thursday.

Philip Knowles … This would’ve marked the rookie’s first live action in over four months. He severed a nerve in his right thumb on Feb. 1, and then had surgery to repair it on Feb. 24. Given that he’s last among 45 Korn Ferry Tour graduates in their reshuffle category (link: https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/golfbet/reshuffle) with greater than zero FedExCup points, even if he shut it down for the remainder of the season and returned for the maximum allotment of starts on a medical extension in the same category, he wouldn’t lose much ground, if any. Still, it’s always good to see even a twinkle of activity after an unfortunate setback.

RECAP – Memorial Tournament presented by Workday

POWER RANKINGS
Power Ranking Golfer = Result
1 Jon Rahm = T16
2 Patrick Cantlay = T30
3 Scottie Scheffler = 3rd
4 Xander Schauffele = T24
5 Rory McIlroy = T7
6 Rickie Fowler = T9
7 Corey Conners = MC
8 Tyrrell Hatton = T12
9 Shane Lowry = T16
10 Sahith Theegala = T58
11 Jordan Spieth = T5
12 Si Woo Kim = 4th
13 Viktor Hovland = Win
14 Adam Scott = T9
15 Sungjae Im = T41

* - For the recommendations below, an asterisk represents a bet that won.

SLEEPERS
Golfer (recommended bet, if applicable) = Result
Akshay Bhatia (+160 = Top 40) = MC
*Luke List (+188 = Top 40) = T16
*Patrick Rodgers (+125 = Top 40) = T30
Robby Shelton (+180 = Top 40) = MC
Brendon Todd (+125 = Top 40) = WD

GOLFBET INSIDER
Team (recommended bet) = Result
Wild Card: Justin Thomas (+105 = Top 20) = MC
Also Starring: Jason Day (-275 = Top 40) = MC
Also Starring: Collin Morikawa (-350 = Top 40) = WD
*Also Starring: Emiliano Grillo (-350 = Top South American) = T48
Also Starring: Billy Horschel (+110 = Top 40) = MC
Also Starring: Matt Fitzpatrick (+230 = Miss the Cut) = T9
Tap-in: PARLAY: Hideki Matsuyama, Corey Conners, Cameron Young (+125 = All to Make the Cut) = T16/MC/MC
*Tap-in: PARLAY: Si Woo Kim, Shane Lowry, Sahith Theegala (+140 = All to Make the Cut) = 4th/T16/T58
Tap-in: Sam Bennett (+160 = Top 40) = 63rd
*Tap-in: Joseph Bramlett (+180 = Top 40) = T16
Tap-in: Sam Burns (+200 = Miss the Cut) = T16
Tap-in: Corey Conners (+150 = Top Canadian) = MC
*Tap-in: Austin Eckroat (+150 = Top 40) = T30
*Tap-in: Ryan Fox (+110 = Top 40) = T30
*Tap-in: Mark Hubbard (+165 = Top 40) = T30
Tap-in: Francesco Molinari (+275 = Top 40) = MC

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