O Canada! Corey Conners has best chance to break RBC Canadian Open drought

The first round of the 112th RBC Canadian Open is behind us, and we have a four-way tie for the lead that includes local hero Corey Conners as he tries to break a 69-year drought.

Not since 1954 when Pat Fletcher collected the trophy has a Canadian won their national open. In fact, this is the first time in 15 years a Canadian has held a share of the first-round lead.

Conners, a two-time PGA TOUR winner, including earlier this season, was impressive in his five birdie, no bogeys effort giving plenty of hope to the local fans.

He’s joined at the top by Aaron Rai, Justin Lower and Chesson Hadley with U.S. Open champion Matt Fitzpatrick the biggest name of an eight-way tie for fifth place.

Pre-tournament favorite Rory McIlroy battled his way to a 1-under 71 to sit four back while Ludvig Aberg was impressive in his first professional start with a tidy 69.

Here are the latest odds from BetMGM Sportsbook ahead of the last three rounds at Oakdale Golf and Country Club along with who I expect to surge from this point on, and who I’d be steering clear of.

+650: Corey Conners (-5, T1)

+650: Matt Fitzpatrick (-4, T5)

+1000: Rory McIlroy (-1, T37)

+1200: Justin Rose (-3, T14)

+2000: Aaron Rai (-5, T1)

+2000: Cameron Young (-1, T37)

+2000: Tommy Fleetwood (-2, T29)

+2800: Will Gordon (-4, T5)

+3000: Brendon Todd (-4, T5)

DRAWS

Corey Conners (+650 to win, -5, T1)

Records and streaks are meant to be broken and since I pegged Conners as my pre-tournament pick, I’m not going to dismiss him now after his impressive and controlled start. The beauty of Conners’ effort was ranking first in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and fourth in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee while also being an impressive 10th in SG: Around the Green. Conners hit 11 of 15 fairways and still 16 of 18 greens in regulation. We know he has the ball striking pedigree to keep it up and the desire to keep his foot on the gas pedal despite a looming U.S. Open coming.

Aaron Rai (+2000 to win, -5, T1)

Rai ranked first in the field in SG: Approach and third on the round in SG: Tee to Green, which is consistent with his season efforts. The most impressive part of his round however was his resilience. Rai was three-over through five holes and ballooned out to 500 to 1 before eight birdies in his last 12 holes rocketed him to a share of the lead. Rai underperformed off the tee to his season averages so he has improvement in him there, but he also overperformed in putting, so he will need to maintain the rage on the greens to bring value at his odds.

Justin Rose (+1200 to win, -3, T14)

Along with Conners, Rose was my pre-tournament selection so I’m going to continue to throw him love. The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am champion is in the middle of a mini resurgence, ranking 14th in SG: Total and 27th in SG: Tee-to-Green on the season. In round one at Oakdale he ranked fifth Tee to Green and had a run of six birdies in eight holes at one point before a couple of late bogeys spoiled things.

FADES

Rory McIlroy (+1000 to win, -1, T37)

McIlroy is going to start thinking I’ve got something against him soon. But with such a huge mental toll on his shoulders this week and with a U.S. Open coming next week, this +1000 number is nowhere near enticing enough to jump on the two-time defending champion. As much as I want to see McIlroy win again, much like last week at Muirfield Village, he had major issues with his wedge play on Thursday. Until we see some proof he has dialed it all back in, short odds are far from appealing. McIlroy managed five birdies on Thursday but added four bogeys in a scrappy effort. His usual strength in SG: Tee to Green was ranked a dismal 119th (-1.810) and he lost shots to the average Off the Tee, on Approach and Around the Green. If not for ranking third in SG: Putting, he would have been sitting over par and facing an early exit from the tournament on Friday.

Justin Lower (+6000 to win, -5, T1)

I love an underdog as much as the next person, but sadly I can’t advocate for current leader Lower to continue his form through the next three rounds. Well not enough to win anyway. While I hope Lower can muster his third top 10 of the season, the reality is the last came last October in Bermuda. In his last 18 TOUR starts, Lower has missed 12 cuts with a high finish of T41 – in January. Lower ranked fourth in SG: Approach on Thursday, lightyears ahead of his season rank of 135th.

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