First Round Leader: Time for Tommy Fleetwood to state his case

We have a new course hosting this week at the RBC Canadian Open in Oakdale Golf & Country Club. But before the first competitive shot was struck, a new wrinkle was thrown into the handicap Tuesday with the news of the future direction of men’s professional golf. How this will affect players in the field this week in Canada remains to be seen, but it’s certainly an extra variable as we look to discern who might lift the trophy – and who could be leading after the opening round.

It is a tough situation to figure out when it comes to handicapping this tournament or the First Round Leader market. While so many sports bettors rely on data and numbers, situational handicapping must often be considered. But this is not a turn of events we have ever witnessed before. We have no history to draw from as to what might be predictive. Guessing on what each player is thinking, how they will react, or if it even matters at all, is difficult to assess.

For the most part, I am going to cast this aside and lean on what we do know, the numbers we do have, and trust that our analysis has some cases of positive expected value that just may manifest. Some handicaps are easier than others. It was not difficult to figure that Michael Block had a strong chance of missing the cut at the Charles Schwab Challenge - following up his life-changing, historical week at the PGA Championship and all that came with that.

Here’s a look at the players I am eyeing to top the leaderboard Thursday at Oakdale, with odds via BetMGM Sportsbook:

Tommy Fleetwood (+3300)

In trying to analyze from afar, Fleetwood has always seemed like a guy that has a smile on his face. A very positive character with a great attitude. As one of the best players in the world, Fleetwood also knows that he has never won on the PGA TOUR and my belief is that outweighs anything else for him right now. There is a major championship on deck next week, of which Fleetwood expects to be a contender, so focusing on playing one’s best right now has to be the mindset. Over the last 36 rounds, Fleetwood ranks third in this field for Strokes Gained: Around the Green, ninth for Strokes Gained: Approach, and 17th in Birdies or Better Gained. I’ll take a shot with the Englishman getting off to a hot start.

Sahith Theegala (+3300)

I've landed on two of the shorter shots here in the market and I do believe there is an element to this tournament that could be ripe for a long shot. We've seen this play out in recent weeks in the First Round Leader market. Harry Hall came out of nowhere to shoot 62 in the opening round of the Charles Schwab Challenge. Seung-Yul Noh fired a 60 to begin the AT&T Byron Nelson. Theegala is another guy for me though that I believe is focused on getting a TOUR win and is not one to be wrapped up in the possible distractions. He's an excellent putter and he makes a ton of birdies. Over the last 36 rounds on bent-poa annua blend greens, Theegala is 14th in this field for Strokes Gained: Putting, second for Birdies or Better Gained, and 20th in Strokes Gained: Approach.

Vincent Norrman (+8000)

Here is a longer shot and also a younger player, a TOUR rookie, that could easily be quite a bit more removed from the present situation versus some of his veteran peers. Norrman has been playing some excellent golf as of late, ranking fourth in this field over the last 12 rounds for Strokes Gained: Tee to Green. He is especially long off the tee and is currently 25th on TOUR in Total Driving. Over the last 36 rounds, he is 11th in this field for Birdies or Better Gained. He is also well above average, ranking 59th on TOUR in First Round Scoring Average.