England’s Fleetwood and Rose set to be thorn in Canadian hopes

The final round of the 112th RBC Canadian Open shapes up as a beauty with a bunch of exciting possibilities. Will it be a Rory McIlroy three-peat? Or a popular Corey Conners or Nick Taylor Canadian crowning? Or could we get a first-time PGA TOUR winner in Tommy Fleetwood or Harry Higgs? Perhaps Justin Rose can be a thorn in the side of all of them.

Or will it be the man who wrestled out of a logjam atop the leaderboard late on Saturday in former RBC Heritage winner C.T. Pan. Pan’s 6-under 66 moved him to 14 under for the week, two clear at the top.

Six players are tied second at 12 under including McIlroy, Fleetwood, Rose, Mark Hubbard, Andrew Novak and cult hero Higgs.

The locals will be riding Conners and Taylor hard as not since 1954 when Pat Fletcher collected the trophy has a Canadian won their national open. Taylor will start three back while Conners is four off the pace.

Here are the latest odds from BetMGM Sportsbook ahead of the last round at Oakdale Golf and Country Club.

+300: Rory McIlroy (-12, T2)

+360: C.T. Pan (-14, 1st)

+600: Justin Rose (-12, T2)

+600: Tommy Fleetwood (-12, T2)

+1000: Mark Hubbard (-12, T2)

+1600: Andrew Novak (-12, T2)

+1600: Nick Taylor (-11, T8)

+2000: Aaron Rai (-11, T8)

+2000: Harry Higgs (-12, T2)

+2200: Corey Conners (-10, 10th)

+10000: Tyrrell Hatton (-8, T13)

I’m facing a moment of truth here with 18 holes to play. All three of my draw plays after the opening round are still in contention, two of whom were my pre-tournament selections to win (Justin Rose, Corey Conners) and the other I pushed as a Top 10 option (Aaron Rai).

But also in the mix is McIlroy who I faded pre-tournament AND after the opening round, only to see him progressively play better over the last two days. I’ve been fading McIlroy a lot of late – sometimes as much because of his odds rather than the player. And he’s beginning to make me nervous…

DRAWS

Justin Rose (+600 to win, -12, T2)

Along with Conners, Rose was my pre-tournament selection so it would be silly of me to abandon him now that he’s got a great chance to win. The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am champion is in the middle of a mini resurgence, ranking 14th in SG: Total and 27th in SG: Tee-to-Green on the season. Through three rounds this week he’s ranked 10th Tee to Green, eighth on Approach, 11th Around the Green and 13th in Putting. I’m banking on Rose to have a better start to his round on Sunday to set up his sweet spot at Oakdale. Rose is a cumulative +2 on holes 1-11 but an incredible 14under with no bogeys on holes 12-18. This should give him added confidence down the stretch.

He said: “It's not even worth thinking about, necessarily, your position. It's about, what are you going to do to go and have a great Sunday. One of the 10 guys that's in touch is going to have a great Sunday. Sometimes on tough golf courses you can put yourself into a position where pars are good… and I think pars are going to be good to start the round. But then you're going to have to find your flow like I did today and make some putts and make some birdies.”

Tommy Fleetwood (+600 to win, -12, T2)

It still beggars’ belief that Fleetwood hasn’t won on the PGA TOUR but perhaps this will be his moment. At 19th in SG: Tee to Green this week Fleetwood actually has improvement left in him (10th on the season). He’s running with momentum after a Saturday 64 and has been dynamite on the greens to rank second in SG: Putting. He has 11 birdies for the week on the back nine, with just a lone Thursday bogey. The first six holes is the key for this Englishman. He’s +2 over those holes for the week. Get through them even or better on Sunday and he’ll be flying.

He said: “I wanted to come out this weekend and have a really good weekend. I felt like the leaderboard's been very, very bunched up, so just staying hanging around sort of over those first two days was important. Got a great round going today and you just have to go out and enjoy those days when they come. I drove it great, I put myself in position all day and managed to convert, which is a lovely feeling.”

WILD CARD DRAWS

Corey Conners (+2200 to win, -10, 10th); Aaron Rai (+2000 to win, -11, T8)

I’m giving these two one more push as I’ve been on them from the start and perhaps they can fire early and post a number. Conners is ranked second in SG: Off the Tee this week and only needs a hot day with the putter to keep his drought breaking efforts alive. Rai leads the field in SG: Tee to Green and is fourth on approach. Like Conners, the key is his putter where he has lost ground to the field.

Conners said: “Obviously the RBC Canadian Open's a big event to me. I left some shots out there probably on the second nine today. But it's nice to be in contention. I start every week trying to get yourself into the mix with an outside chance on Sunday. That's where I find myself. Definitely going to need some pretty special golf tomorrow but feeling good about my game and it's going to be fun.”

FADES

Rory McIlroy* (+300 to win, -12, T2)

Call me a fence sitter but I’m throwing the asterisk on this McIlroy fade to point out this call is much more weighted to the low odds than the player himself. After months of advocating for McIlroy fades due to a combination of on course play and off course distractions, I am officially starting to turn the corner.

The two-time defending champion ranked 119th in the field in SG: Tee to Green in the opening round but has since ranked 18th in round 2 and second in the third round to be 17th in the field overall. Similarly, he has gone from 114th, to 55th, to ninth in SG: Approach per round and improved his proximity by over six feet on Saturday. He leads the field in driving distance and is fourth in SG: Off the Tee.

On the flipside, we have seen a slow regression on the greens after a great Thursday. And it is this issue that keeps Rory – or more to the point his +300 number – on the fade side for me at this time. With a bunch of players all close to the top it will definitely come down to a crucial putt or two. McIlroy is MORE than capable of making them… I just would’ve liked more value. You know he’d love nothing more than to turn up to Los Angeles next week with a trophy in tow.

He said: “I would love to win the Canadian Open for the third time. I've never won a tournament three times in a row. I felt like last year the win wasn't just for me it was for a few other things. But this one, this year, if I were able to get over the line, will be solely for me…

For whatever reason I seem to play better when there's a little bit of noise going in the world of golf. It's really nice to get inside the ropes and just concentrate on my job at the end of the day, which is trying to get the ball around the golf course.”

C.T. Pan (+360 to win, -14, 1st)

Pan is going for the RBC double having claimed the RBC Heritage back in 2019, a season that saw him make the International Presidents Cup team. But he’s had a tough 2023 thanks to a wrist injury that he continues to manage. While it clearly hasn’t hampered him too much so far this week as he ranks third in putting, 16th on approach and seventh Tee to Green it is still a big risk to take him at short odds to win with a bunch of touted stars breathing down his neck.

He said: “It's always cool to see my name on the top of the leaderboard... That's all I want to do before the tournament started. Finished birdie, birdie. That put me in a good spot. But I still got a lot of work to do… Course management, I won't do too much to change. But you still have to play aggressive, because this course it's a lot of rough, but if you hit it in the fairway, you will have a lot of short irons in and you're going to create a lot of birdie opportunities. So, I wouldn't be surprised if someone shoots 8-, 9-under (tomorrow), because the PGA TOUR guys are really good.”

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