Win probabilities: TOUR Championship

2022 TOUR Championship, Round 2

Top 10 win probabilities:

1. Scottie Scheffler (1, -19, 55.7%)
2. Xander Schauffele (2, -17, 31.8%)
3. Jon Rahm (3, -13, 5.3%)
4. Patrick Cantlay (T4, -12, 2.9%)
5. Sungjae Im (T4, -12, 2.0%)
6. Rory McIlroy (7, -10, 0.9%)
7. Joaquin Niemann (6, -11, 0.7%)
8. Cameron Young (T8, -9, 0.2%)
9. Justin Thomas (T11, -8, 0.1%)
10. Matthew Fitzpatrick (T11, -8, 0.1%)

Top Strokes-Gained Performers from Round 2:

Putting: Max Homa +3.4
Around the Green: Scott Stallings +2.6
Approach the Green: Patrick Cantlay +3.5
Off-the-tee: Patrick Cantlay +2.0
Total: Max Homa +6.0

NOTE: These reports are based off of the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut”, “Top 20”, “Top 5”, and “Win” probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the BMW Championship, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.