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Cut prediction: FedEx St. Jude Championship

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Stats Report

Cut prediction: FedEx St. Jude Championship


    Written by Matthew & @DataGolf

    Sungjae Im chips tight to yield downhill birdie putt at FedEx St. Jude Champ


    2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship, Round 1

    Scoring Conditions:

    Overall: -1.44 strokes per round
    Morning wave: -1.92
    Afternoon wave: -0.97

    Current cutline (top 65 and ties)

    76 players at -1 or better (T60)

    Top 3 projected cutline probabilities:

    1. 2 under par: 41.4%
    2. 3 under par: 27.0%
    3. 1 under par: 21.5%

    Top 10 win probabilities:

    1. Si Woo Kim (T1, -8, 8.6%)
    2. Tony Finau (T4, -6, 8.6%)
    3. Sahith Theegala (3, -7, 5.0%)
    4. Patrick Cantlay (T30, -3, 4.4%)
    5. J.J. Spaun (T1, -8, 4.3%)
    6. Sam Burns (T8, -5, 3.9%)
    7. Jon Rahm (T30, -3, 3.5%)
    8. Kyounghoon Lee (T4, -6, 2.9%)
    9. Cameron Smith (T30, -3, 2.9%)
    10. Tyrrell Hatton (T8, -5, 2.8%)

    NOTE: These reports are based off of the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut”, “Top 20”, “Top 5”, and “Win” probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the Wyndham Championship, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.