Win probabilities: U.S. Open

2022 U.S. Open, Round 2

Top 10 win probabilities:

1. Rory McIlroy (T3, -4, 16.8%)
2. Jon Rahm (T3, -4, 13.7%)
3. Scottie Scheffler (T8, -3, 12.2%)
4. Collin Morikawa (T1, -5, 11.3%)
5. Aaron Wise (T3, -4, 6.3%)
6. Joel Dahmen (T1, -5, 5.2%)
7. Matthew Fitzpatrick (T13, -2, 4.4%)
8. Sam Burns (T13, -2, 3.4%)
9. Beau Hossler (T3, -4, 2.8%)
10. Brian Harman (T8, -3, 2.4%)

NOTE: These reports are based off of the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut”, “Top 20”, “Top 5”, and “Win” probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the U.S. Open, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.