Where there’s a wedge, there’s a way for Wells Fargo champ Rory McIlroy

Rory McIlroy, this week’s defending champion and a 20-time PGA TOUR winner, is invariably one of the best players of his generation.

He sprinted to four major championship victories just after his 25th birthday, a pace only bettered in the modern era by Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus. He’s won a PLAYERS Championship, two FedExCups and the Byron Nelson Award for lowest scoring average three times.

This season alone, he is among the leaders in several statistics. He’s 11th in the FedExCup despite making just six starts so far. He’s coming off a sparkling Sunday at The Masters, where he shot 64 to finish runner-up to Scottie Scheffler. McIlroy won the CJ CUP @ SUMMIT in October, is sixth on the PGA TOUR money list and once again has a scoring average in the 60s.

At just 32 years old, he’s still poised to be a centerpiece of professional championship golf for years to come, even as his competition has grown younger and younger.

But this season, McIlroy has struggled immensely in one particular facet of his game. From 50-125 yards away, McIlroy has an average proximity to the hole of more than 24 feet. If he had enough rounds to officially qualify for this season’s statistical rankings, that would rank dead last on the PGA TOUR.

Missed Opportunities

How significant is this statistical deficiency? This season, the average proximity to the hole from that range is about 19 feet. Players who are 50-125 yards from the pin and in the fairway have averaged 0.16 strokes under par. McIlroy, on the other hand, is actually over par in these situations this season. His average of +0.08 means that every time he is 50-125 yards away from the flag, he is losing about one-quarter of a stroke to the field.

McIlroy is actually, on average, getting closer to the hole when he’s further away. From 125-150 yards out this season, his average if 21 feet, 8 inches –more than 2 feet closer to the hole than from the shorter range of approach shots.

There are currently 209 players who have enough rounds to officially qualify for the PGA TOUR’s statistics this season. Of that group, only 5% are averaging closer from the 125-150 range than 50-125.

The only player in the group to average 2 feet worse in the 50-125 proximity than the 125-150 – like McIlroy currently is - is Kevin Na. But Na being part of that statistic is a testament to how good he’s been from 125-150 yards out this season, where he leads the entire TOUR (14 feet, 4 inches). Na also ranks in the top 50 in proximity from 50-125 yards.

Incredibly, McIlroy is a combined 23 under in situations where he is hitting an approach shot from 125-250 yards away in the fairway. That’s a 26-shot improvement in relation to par over the sampling of shorter approach shots.

Not all is lost

Human beings are fickle. As golf fans, we may have some recent memories of McIlroy having a golden scoring opportunity from the fairway but following it up with a sub-standard wedge shot. That may give some the perception that McIlroy has always struggled to hit approach shots close from this range.

Statistically though, that’s simply not the case. There have been 139 PGA TOUR events in McIlroy’s career where he has had at least four approaches from 50-125 yards away in the fairway. In 93 of them – 67%– his average proximity was inside 20 feet. Each of the previous six PGA TOUR seasons, McIlroy ranked in the top half of players on TOUR in this proximity metric. As recently as 2017-18, he was in the top 10 (8th, averaging 16’4”).

Some of McIlroy’s best golf has come when he has shined in this statistic. McIlroy has 15 PGA TOUR wins in which ShotLink statistics have been measured. In 12 of those, his average proximity to the hole from 50-125 yards was inside 20 feet. Nine times, he’s averaged 10’2” or closer from 50-125 yards away. He won three of those tournaments.

Let’s look at another way to quantify the value of better wedge play. McIlroy has 225 rounds in his PGA TOUR career where he had at least three approach shots from 50-125 yards away and in the fairway. In 65% of those rounds, his average proximity to the hole from that range was inside 20 feet. In the other 35% of rounds, his scoring average was more than a full stroke higher – 70.3 compared to 69.2.

Outlook for This Week

The last time we saw McIlroy, he was making an epic charge at The Masters, holing out from the bunker on the 72nd hole to finish runner-up. Though he’s a three-time winner of this event, McIlroy won’t have past course success to lean on this week, as the tournament is being held at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm instead of its usual spot, Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, which is hosting this year’s Presidents Cup. That said, he’s always played very well in his first start after The Masters, regardless of venue.

Since 2010, McIlroy has played in five different events worldwide in his first start after The Masters. In a whopping 10 of those 12 tournaments, he finished inside the top 10. Three times, he went on to win – twice at the Wells Fargo Championship, and in 2015 at the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play.

If McIlroy is dialed in with his wedges, he will be tough to beat this week in Maryland.