Jordan Spieth, one year later

A year ago, Jordan Spieth’s return to the PGA TOUR winner’s circle at the Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio was the culmination of months of elite play.

A Saturday 61 at TPC Scottsdale launched him into contention at the WM Phoenix Open, where he was tied for the lead entering the final round (he ultimately tied for fourth). He would hold the outright 54-hole lead the following week at Pebble Beach, then post strong finishes at The Genesis Invitational (T-15), Arnold Palmer Invitational (T-4) and WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play (lost in round of 16).

Spieth’s ascent would peak in his home state of Texas, then carry on to a strong performance at Augusta National. How did he rediscover his best golf, and how close is he to finding it again?

Spring Forward

When Spieth arrived to the 2021 WM Phoenix Open, he was in the statistical doldrums. He ranked 204th on TOUR for the season in Strokes Gained: Approach, and not much better in scoring average (183rd). Of 242 players to statistically qualify to that point in the season, only 11 were hitting fewer greens in regulation than Spieth (59.4%). His Official World Golf Ranking had dropped to 92nd, his worst position since the summer of 2013, the week before his first TOUR victory at the John Deere Classic.

Then, Scottsdale happened.

Across the months of February and March of 2021, Spieth ranked third on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Approach per round, trailing only Collin Morikawa and Sergio Garcia. His form with his iron play during that stretch – gaining 1.20 strokes per round via approach shots – well-surpassed what he did in 2015, when he was PGA TOUR Player of the Year. That season, he averaged about 0.62 Strokes Gained: Approach per round, 11th-best on TOUR.

Spieth’s putting improved during the stretch, too, but not to the levels of his approach game. In February and March, Spieth ranked 37th on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Putting, a big jump from earlier in the season (0.06 per round, 119th). In all, 67% of Spieth’s total strokes gained during this stretch came from his stellar approaches.

At TPC San Antonio, Spieth’s incredible improvement in his wedge game led him to victory. He led the field for the week in average proximity from 50 to 125 yards (10 feet, 5 inches). His average distance from the hole in those situations was more than 10 feet better than the field average for the tournament. This was especially significant considering where Spieth was with this part of his game months prior: entering Phoenix, he ranked 235th on TOUR from that range (23 feet, 4 inches), limiting his birdie possibilities after having wedge in his hands.

The ball-striking trend continued down Magnolia Lane into The Masters. The 2015 champion ranked in the top 10 that week in both Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and Strokes Gained: Approach. No player gained more strokes than Spieth did tee-to-green (3.44 per round) for the tournament. It was his putting that let him down – of 54 players to make the cut, only three had a worse Strokes Gained: Putting performance than Spieth for the week.

Spieth wouldn’t win again in 2020-21, but he got awfully close a couple of times. He finished runner-up at both the Charles Schwab Challenge and at The Open Championship. He put together eight consecutive tournaments where he amassed positive Strokes Gained: Approach, something he did in fewer than half of his starts in 2020. By the time the season concluded, Spieth had ascended from 161st to 24th in scoring average.

Recent Outlook

While Spieth got close at Pebble Beach earlier this year (2nd place, two behind winner Tom Hoge), his form statistically hasn’t been as sharp since spring of last year.

That isn’t to say Spieth has been playing poorly: he’s averaging positive strokes gained per round in every discipline. During that span, he’s a respectable 37th on TOUR among qualified players in scoring average. This season, he’s averaging his most Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee per round since 2018 and is in the top 25 in average driving distance for the first time.

Again, the biggest statistical difference between Spieth’s recent play and when he was red-hot comes from his approach numbers. Spieth is gaining just 0.14 strokes per round with his approach play since last May, a drop-off of more than a full stroke from that February-March stretch. It adds up to more than 4 strokes per 72 holes, a deficit that is virtually impossible to overcome with the other facets of his game.

As for that wedge play that was so good in San Antonio a year ago: This season, Spieth is ranked a strong 20th in average proximity from 50-125 yards, at 16 feet, 1 inch. However, his average score to par in those situations – just -0.07 to par – is ranked 168th. Spieth simply hasn’t been converting those opportunities – the TOUR average from that position is -0.16, more than twice as good in relation to par.

No player in each of the next two TOUR fields has had as much success on those courses as Spieth has. A return to friendly confines could be just what’s needed to bring out the best in the 12-time TOUR winner.