Sleeper Picks: BMW Championship

NOTE: For three events, Rob is focusing only on golfers needing a good performance to advance in the FedExCup Playoffs. In this final edition, all five below enter the BMW Championship outside the top 30 in points. Scenarios for all golfers to advance will be published later this week.

Shane Lowry(+125 for a Top 20) … He didn’t come this far not to go any farther. Sure, you could say the same thing about everyone in the field at the BMW Championship, but few have been as consistently strong as the 35-year-old throughout 2022. With a trio of podium finishes leading the way, including his solo second in the ill-timed rain at the finish line of The Honda Classic, he’s 37th in the FedExCup. If there’s any cosmic balance in the golf world, it’ll be his turn to climb into the top 30, just as FedEx St. Jude Championship playoff victim (and Honda champion) Sepp Straka did on Sunday. Entering the week, Lowry was 28th, but Straka has since climbed from 35th to eighth. And you can bet that the Irishman will have an umbrella at the ready with rain in the forecast in Wilmington on the weekend.

Aaron Wise(+110 for a Top 20) … Of all of the guys outside the top 30 in the FedExCup upon arrival, his position is most envious. That’s because he’s 31st after a T31 at TPC Southwind. Like others, he’s long and accurate from tee to green, but that’s exactly the formula for success on Wilmington Country Club’s South Course this week. It was just a couple of months ago when he challenged for a solo second at Muirfield Village, another stretched-out track with bentgrass greens.

Denny McCarthy(+275 for a Top 20) … This bet is a gimme, right? In his last seven starts, he’s recorded three top 10s, one T20 and missed three cuts. With no cut at the BMW Championship, he’s a lock for a top 20! Of course, if it worked that way, there wouldn’t be any risk, but investors in his starts haven’t felt much of that with him for most of the season, anyway. Currently 35th in the FedExCup and on the pantheon of the best putters on the PGA TOUR.

K.H. Lee … If he wasn’t as high as his current position of 33rd in the FedExCup, he probably wouldn’t have landed in the final edition of Sleepers for the 2021-22 season. (Promotional note: The Power Rankings for the TOUR Championship always is a full-field version.) Since defending his breakthrough victory at the 2021 AT&T Byron Nelson with another title three months ago, he’s 6-for-9 but with just two top 35s. Both are top 20s, including a T20 last week at TPC Southwind where he was perfect on 60 looks from eight feet and in, nine of which were from outside three feet. The moral of the matter is that he has the firepower to deliver on value that you’ll find on the boards.

Emiliano Grillo … When the regular season was entering its last six weeks, he was just inside the top 150 of the FedExCup and devoid a top-15 finish since The Open Championship in 2021. But then, in a four-week span bridging the 2022 Open, the 29-year-old from Argentina hung up a pair of runner-up finishes to secure his seventh Playoffs appearance in as many tries. Now, at 55th in points, it’s going to require another sparkling performance to advance to the TOUR Championship for the first time since he was the Rookie of the Year in 2015-16. With his tee-to-green precision on a course with unfamiliar greens, his skill set is poised to fulfill the objective. Incidentally, the last time a golfer outside the top 45 in the FedExCup at the BMW Championship qualified for the finale in any iteration of the points structure was Keegan Bradley in 2018. He did it with a victory. The last to turn the trick without a win was Robert Castro in 2016. He placed third at the BMW to jump from 53rd to 21st.

Odds were sourced on Tuesday, Aug. 16, 2022. For live odds, visit BetMGM.