Surely you saw this coming.

Back at a course where he finished runner-up last year, with his game showing signs of promise and his optimism brimming in pre-tournament comments, you knew that Scottie Scheffler was poised to make a run this week at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. You wouldn’t have doubted his ultra-short outright price, and you certainly wouldn’t have doubled down last night by fading him after an opening 67.

Alas.

It’s once again Scheffler’s world in the Lone Star State, as the world No. 1 tied the course record with a second-round 62 to grab the overnight lead at 11 under with second-round play set to conclude in the morning. His game seems to be peaking just in time for his Masters title defense, and his in-play price at FanDuel Sportsbook is all the way down to -125.

That course record may not live long, as Nico Echavarria stood at 9 under through 16 holes when play was suspended because of darkness. But Echavarria faces a 44-foot par chip on No. 17 to stay at 10 under, one shot behind Scheffler, and may need a birdie on No. 18 in the morning for a record-breaking 61.

Essentially, it’s now Scheffler vs. the field heading into the weekend at Memorial Park Golf Course.

Updated odds to win Texas Children’s Houston Open (via FanDuel)

• -125: Scottie Scheffler
• +650: Taylor Pendrith
• +1100: Min Woo Lee
• +1400: Ryan Gerard
• +2200: Nico Echavarria
• +4000: Keith Mitchell

The discussion has to start with Scheffler, along with a troubling trend for the field. After ball-striking his way to nearly every trophy under the sun last year, it’s now his putter doing the work in Houston: Scheffler leads the field in SG: Putting through two days, picking up more than 6.2 shots on the field on the greens.

A red-hot putter is a great sign for Scheffler’s Masters prospects, but a terrifying sign for anyone looking to chase him down this weekend in Houston. I can’t advocate taking him at this price, especially after going the other way last night, but it would come as no surprise if he steamrolls the field this weekend in his final pre-Masters start.

But if you’re willing to take on the best player in the world (and his cooperative putter), here are a few targets to consider in the non-Scheffler division:

Ryan Fox (+5000)

The Kiwi is 5 under for his second round, 7 under overall and poised for more as he returns to the par-5 16th when play resumes. Fox has all the necessary skill off the tee to hang with the length of Memorial Park, and he’s sitting at 11th for the week in SG: Putting. Fox hasn’t won on the PGA TOUR, but he’s an established veteran with multiple marquee wins on the DP World Tour. This number will surely shorten if he gets to 8 or 9 under by the time his second round wraps.

Kevin Yu (+11000)

I may have been a week early with Yu, having advocated for him during the Valspar Championship, but he found his footing with a 7-under 63 in the second round. He’ll head into the weekend at 6 under, five behind Scheffler, so there’s work to be done. But he made considerable improvements from the first to second round, including a wild turnaround on the greens where he went from 149th in SG: Putting to leading the field in the metric.

Tony Finau (+12000)

The dream is still alive for Finau, who won at Memorial Park in 2022 and chased that with a T2 finish in his title defense last year. Finau overcame some abysmal iron play in the opening round but still carded an even-par 70, then improved his ball-striking en route to a Friday 65. He’s six shots off the pace, but few in the field love this venue more than him – and he has the firepower to chase down Scheffler if some putts drop over the weekend.

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