First Round Leader: Recent U.S. Open results may shed light on who will start quickly at LACC

Like every golf fan, I love the majors. But over the years, the U.S. Open has always been my least favorite of the four major championships. The Masters has such tradition and Sunday drama. The PGA Championship has really become a thrilling contest in the last 15 years it seems, and The Open Championship is so unique - the weather, the links, the history - watching major championship golf in the wee hours of the night (on the West Coast).

The U.S. Open has often been a war of attrition, players struggling to make par, and less thrilling for me overall. However, this year I am especially fired up for it. I believe Los Angeles Country Club will ultimately be the star of the show this week and ought to produce a wonderfully compelling championship. I know there will be birdie and even eagle opportunities, and I think there will be double and triple bogeys to go around. There ought to be some incredible short game situations, golf shots fans don't always see from different positions on the golf course, and fascinating instances involving players trying to escape getting into even more trouble. From what I have learned about LACC the past few weeks, it ought to bring creativity and imagination to the forefront and because of that, produce a tremendous watch.

The weather looks like it will be ideal this week in the Beverly Hills area. Temperatures in the high 60's and low 70's, wind at less than 10 MPH, with no rain in the forecast - and really no rain in the Los Angeles area in a month - the golf course ought to be firm and fast. With the length of the golf course and the approach shot distances these players will be hitting from, combined with the expectations for a firm and fast track, I believe the greens will be kept receptive - at least until we get to the weekend. We saw this recently at the Memorial where the golf course got progressively more difficult as the tournament went on and as the golf course became firmer and faster. My hunch is it will be similar here and by the time we get to Sunday, the greens could be much more difficult to hold.

If this theory is true, Thursday will be a day to score and get into position before things become even more daunting. Having grown up in Northern California and gone to school in Southern California, I am very familiar with the "marine layer" that we often see when close to the coast. This looks to be the weather pattern for Thursday's opening round - some overcast skies in the morning, opening up to sunshine in the afternoon. Again, if this is the case, I feel like the morning wave could have a slight advantage over those teeing off later in the day, when the sun begins to hit the golf course.

It is hard to get a handle on what the demands will be here off the tee. Will distance be more important than accuracy, or vice versa? The golf course is long, so distance will help for sure, but with the firm and fast conditions shorter hitters will not be left out of the equation. In addition, I don't think this will be a bomber's paradise. The fairways are much wider than a standard U.S. Open set up - but they are sloped and an errant tee ball can end up in a not so promising spot. Let's call it "control" over the tee ball being crucial but I'm not sure if accuracy or distance trumps one another. My emphasis this week will be more toward approach play and work on and around the greens - and that is where I have focused my handicap for a First Round Leader.

Justin Rose (+4500 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

The 2023 season has been a fantastic one for Justin Rose. He won at Pebble Beach, finished sixth at THE PLAYERS, just took eighth in Canada, and was ninth last month at the PGA Championship. I believe he will contend for this championship as well - and he's always been a guy who gets off to a quick start. He has been the First Round Leader at the Masters four times. He led the U.S. Open after one round in 2019 at Pebble Beach. He was two shots off the opening-round lead last year at The Country Club, another Gil Hanse renovated course, and was two shots off the pace at Shinnecock in 2018. Three times in Round 1 of a U.S. Open, Rose has posted a score in which he gained four or more strokes on the field and twice he's done it gaining five or more strokes. We talked about focusing on short game and approach play. Rose led the field last week at the RBC Canadian Open in SG: Approach and is 12th in this field in that category over the last 36 rounds. He is 13th in SG: Around the Green and third in SG: Putting on bent grass.

Rickie Fowler (+5500)

Very similar storyline here for Fowler as he too is having a fantastic season, has a remarkable history in major championships, ranks very high on TOUR on approach, and is magical with the putter - especially on bent grass greens. Fowler led the U.S. Open after Day 1 at Erin Hills in 2017 and was one shot behind Rose at Pebble in 2019. He has four U.S. Open first rounds in which he has gained three or more strokes on the field and two rounds in which he has gained five shots or better. Fowler is eighth in this field over the last 36 rounds for SG: Approach and seventh in SG: Around the Green.

Patrick Reed (+6600)

While I don't think there is a perfect match golf course for LACC, I did look at a handful of golf courses this week that I believe have some similar traits. Chambers Bay, site of the 2015 U.S. Open is one of them and Patrick Reed finished 14th there, opening with a 66, which was one shot off the pace. He also opened one shot off the first-round lead in 2020 at Winged Foot, shooting yet another 66. Winged Foot is also a course that has been renovated by Gil Hanse. Other golf courses I look at this week in comparison to Los Angeles Country Club were Augusta National, Shinnecock, and Kapalua. Reed has won at both Kapalua and Augusta and took fourth at the 2018 U.S. Open at Shinnecock. Three times he has opened a U.S. Open with a round that gained three strokes or more on the field, and twice with rounds that gained five strokes or better.

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