Rory McIlroy’s prediction coming true at THE CJ CUP

LAS VEGAS – Two-time FedExCup winning star Rory McIlroy might want to head to the casino tables after his second round at THE CJ CUP considering his now eerie pre-tournament comments on the current depth of the PGA TOUR.

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McIlroy was asked to quantify how tough it is to win these days and how deep fields are on the TOUR and the experienced Northern Irishman paused before answering thoughtfully.

“You play with players that like Keith Mitchell, right? This is a very anecdotal story but I played the final round with him at Quail Hollow last season and he was leading. He was maybe one ahead of me or whatever it was. He came out and he hits it in the left bunker on one, hits an unbelievable 7-iron to like 10 feet and holes the putt,” McIlroy began on Wednesday.

“Fields are so deep that people wouldn't maybe pick a Keith Mitchell to win a tournament at the start of a week, but you play with him in a final round on a Sunday, he stopped me in my tracks. I was like, he is a hell of a player. And people don't realize that.”

Two days after the comments, and months after the tournament referenced, and Mitchell boasts a five-shot lead after incredible rounds of 62-64 at The Summit Club. Given Mitchell, a one-time TOUR winner missed seven of his next 12 cuts after a T3 at Quail Hollow – including his first two of this season – you could certainly argue the 18-under start wasn’t expected.

“You could say that about 100 guys out there that depending on who you play with… you turn up to a typical PGA TOUR event where there’s 144, 156 players and you feel like three-quarters of the field have a chance to win and that just sort of illustrates how deep the fields are,” McIlroy continued.

The case is strengthened not just by Mitchell’s blistering start in Las Vegas but by some of the names behind him. Despite a stacked field boasting 36 of the world’s top 50 players, among those tied for second place are the winless Harry Higgs (64-67) and little known Korean Seonghyeon Kim (68-63).

Kim is ranked 190th in the world but recently won the Japan PGA Championship to jump into the CJ CUP. He will attempt to get through the second stage of Korn Ferry Tour Q-School next week in New Mexico. That’s right. Second stage of Korn Ferry Tour Q-School.

“I don't think you really can quantify how deep the TOUR is… it’s a joke,” Higgs says.

“We were watching Q-School scores this morning on the range. Those guys are fighting for their careers and lives this week and if you put any one of the 70-some odd guys on any of the stages on this golf course... everybody playing second stage right now is also good enough to shoot these scores that we're shooting currently.”

Higgs echoed another pre-tournament statement from McIlroy, relaying the stunning fact that while world No.2 Dustin Johnson did win the November 2020 Masters as part of last season, he was yet to win an event in the 2021 calendar year.

“He's the second best in the world and he hasn't won this whole year. It's insanely difficult to win… and anyone can set a record at any moment.” Higgs added.

Since Tiger Woods won six TOUR events in the 2009 season, that mark has not been hit again by an individual. Jordan Spieth and Jason Day won five each in 2015 and Justin Thomas had five in 2017. Last season Patrick Cantlay claimed the FedExCup with a four-win season.

In the 22 seasons since we hit the year 2000 the high mark is a nine-win season done by Tiger Woods and Vijay Singh in 2000 and 2004 respectively. Breaking those 22 seasons in half and the averages tell a story.

In the first 11 seasons the average top winner mark is 6.1 wins a season. In the 11 seasons since the average is slashed to 3.6.

“I've had a couple of seasons where I've won four and five times and nowadays that's an achievement. The seasons of up around 10 wins like Vijay and Tiger obviously multiple times, maybe I'll be wrong, but I don't know if we’re going to see them again,” McIlroy says.

“A really good season nowadays… well three wins is exceptional, two wins is very good, and then anything above three, you're the best player in the world at that point. Someone hasn't won more than five times since 2009, that's over a decade, so that’s the trend.

“A Jon Rahm maybe has the potential… but anyone out here, if you told them they were going to win four times in a year, they would take your hand off (to shake for the deal).”

And so this weekend Mitchell lines up with the chance to add to his 2019 Honda Classic win. And he now has McIlroy’s endorsement bouncing around in his brain.

“When he gives you a compliment like that, it's pretty deep. I mean, it means a lot to me because he's a superstar in our game and I'm not even close to that. So when he calls you out unannounced, it does mean a lot,” Mitchell beamed after his second round.

And coincidently Mitchell’s focus this new season has been on trying to find consistent performance.

“It's impossible out here to win or contend every week. It is. Even though we show up every week wanting to contend and wanting to win, it doesn't happen, and it's frustrating times because you want every single week to be your week,” he explained.

“I was talking to (sports psychologist) Dr. Rotella not too long ago. He said Justin Thomas was Player of the Year and missed seven cuts. I can promise you every single cut he missed; he was pissed.

“I felt like feast or famine was kind of my game the last four years and I wanted to be a little bit more consistent, a little bit more patient, play like a TOUR pro and not just like a young kid out there firing at flags. It's a lot harder to do than I thought, but when your putter's hot like it was the last couple days, it kind of just makes up for the rest.”

With major winners Jordan Spieth and Adam Scott also tied second and a course giving up more birdies than Santa Claus gives presents Mitchell knows he needs to keep his head down. Five shots can be gone in the blink of an eye on a TOUR this deep.

“The first win you never really expect to win and then when you do, you feel like you're supposed to win more,” Mitchell adds. “Hopefully I can continue the play that I'm having because definitely the second one for me has seemed to be a lot harder.”

Fact is, winning has never been harder.