Jon Rahm leads the list of links specialists

Jon Rahm is on an absolute tear heading into The Open Championship.

He’s 44 under par in his last 12 worldwide rounds. He is making birdie-or-better on more than 30% of his holes in that stretch. He’s never been worse than T11 after any round in that span. He not only won his first major championship at the U.S. Open but was one stroke of bad fortune from running away with the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday, as well.

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Couple that with his past success at links-style golf courses in Europe, and you justifiably have a player who will be at the top of virtually everyone’s lists heading into the 149th Open Championship. Rahm is a two-time winner of the Dubai Duty Free Irish Open, with high finishes dotting his resume on similar courses throughout his young career.

“It's very refreshing when we come to this part of the world and play,” Rahm said last week at the Scottish Open, where he finished seventh. “And I think that's why I've had success.”

Twenty First Group analyzed every European Tour event (including The Open Championship) played on coastal courses of the British Isles since 2010, a collection of more than 25,000 rounds. Digging through the results not only articulated how great Rahm has been on links-style courses, but pinpointed some other key performers. Some names were expected. Some might be a bit surprising.

Jon Rahm

In his career, Rahm has averaged +1.8 Strokes Gained: Total per round on links-style golf courses (as defined in our classification), the best of any player over the last decade with 30 or more rounds played. Rahm’s iron play has been exceptional: in 33 rounds, he’s hit 72.6% of his greens in regulation – 6.6% more than the combined field averages in that span.

Rahm has been able to capitalize on his length everywhere in his career, and these types of courses are no different. On links courses, the World No. 2 averages more than 10 yards farther than the field off the tee. It’s led to a direct benefit on par-5s - he’s gained an average of +0.28 strokes per par-5 played, second-best of any player since 2010 with 30 or more rounds under his belt.

Since the first Masters was held in 1934, only three players have won their first two professional majors in back-to-back major starts: Craig Wood (1941 Masters, U.S. Open); Bobby Locke (1949 and 1950 Open Championships); and Jordan Speith (2015 Masters, U.S. Open). Rahm will try to join that list this week, as well as become the first player since Tiger Woods in 2000 to win the U.S. Open and The Open Championship in the same season.

Rahm also is trying to finish in the top 10 in all four of this year’s majors. In addition to his win at Torrey Pines, he has finished fifth at this year’s Masters and T8 at the PGA Championship.

Jordan Spieth

He finished one shot out of a playoff at St. Andrews in 2015, then won The Open Championship two years later. Jordan Spieth’s links acumen is obvious, but the numbers paint a fuller picture of how good he’s been after crossing the Atlantic.

In 28 rounds, he’s averaged a whopping +2.0 Strokes Gained: Total per round, the best of any player since 2010 with 20 or more rounds played. Spieth’s short game has been especially brilliant: he has scrambled, on average, 10.4% better than his opposition when playing links courses in his career. He’s also averaged more than half-a-putt fewer per round than the competition. This has led to him gaining strokes on the opposition regardless of hole type, doing so on par-3s, par-4s and par-5s.

Since 2015, Spieth leads all players at The Open Championship in scoring average (69.6), rounds in the 60s (12) and one-putts (145).

Tony Finau

Quick. Who was the low American at the 2019 Open at Royal Portrush? It wasn’t Brooks Koepka (T4). It was Finau, who finished alone in third place. Finau is the only player to finish in the top 10 at both the 2018 and 2019 Open Championship.

Finau has been good-to-great at virtually everything on links-style golf courses in his career. His driving distance, always a weapon, has given him a 12.6 yard average head start on the field. He’s hit more than 71% of his greens in regulation, a 7.2% increase over the field average. He also scrambles at a clip 8.5% higher than the field and has fewer putts per round than the average player, too.

Finau has averaged 1.5 strokes under par per round on links courses, an exceptional clip considering more than half of his sample is coming from The Open Championship.

Adam Scott

With seven top-25 finishes since 2011, Adam Scott has been one of the most consistent performers this decade at The Open Championship. On links-style courses since 2010, Scott has averaged +1.7 Strokes Gained: Total per round, third-best among players with 40 or more rounds played in that span.

Scott has been able to take great advantage of par-5s throughout his career on these courses: on average, Scott gains 0.3 strokes on the field per par-5 played, the highest average of any player in this study with more than 20 rounds. Outdriving the field average by more than 16 yards goes a long way, in turns out.

Xander Schauffele

Since 2010, there are just six players who have hit at least 5% more greens than the field and scrambled at a clip that is at least 5% better than the competition on European links courses.

Two of those players have already been mentioned: Finau and Scott. Another one on that short list is Schauffele, who was the 54-hole co-leader at Carnoustie three years ago before ultimately finishing T2.

It’s not an enormous sample size, but Schauffele has been terrific on these types of courses, gaining +1.8 strokes on the field per round. In addition to the scrambling and G.I.R. prowess we mentioned, he also averages more than six-tenths of a putt fewer per round, a number that puts him in the upper-15th percentile in that statistic.

Schauffele has played in 17 major championships in his young career, finishing in the top 10 in more than half of them (nine). Since 2017, he is ranked fourth or better in the majors in scoring (70.6), birdies-or-better per round (3.8) and percentage of rounds in the 60s (39.1%). Could Royal St George’s be the site of his breakthrough major win?