Roundtable: Surprises, analysis from Round 1 of PGA Championship

FARMINGDALE, N.Y. – The opening round of the PGA Championship saw Brooks Koepka continue his PGA TOUR Player of the Year form. Here, PGATOUR.COM’s writers tackle some of the big questions from Thursday at Bethpage Black.

Brooks Koepka set the pace with a course record 7-under 63. Are you ready to call it his tournament to lose given his major championship form of late? And will he?

BEN EVERILL (Staff Writer): We’ve seen plenty happen in majors over 54 holes but Koepka looked near-unbeatable this morning. It was like old school Tiger Woods swagger. I actually think 7 under might be enough to win the tournament on Sunday, so given he’s already there, only mistakes can beat him. I think we might be watching a fourth major in eight starts.

SEAN MARTIN (Senior Editor): No. When we start handing out majors early, it becomes more of a curse than a blessing. We’re only through the first quarter. A lot of golf remains.

MIKE McALLISTER (Managing Editor): While I’d never call any tournament after just 18 holes, it’s easy to let your mind consider the possibility of a runaway victory for Koepka. He sent a huge message on Thursday to the rest of the field. Now he just needs to back it up.

CAMERON MORFIT (Staff Writer): Koepka looks infallible right now, but there's just too much that can go wrong, too quickly. We saw it with Molinari at the Masters. He looked totally nerveless and infallible until he didn't.

ROB BOLTON (Fantasy Insider): Using logic, the only guy who can lose the tournament after one round is the leader, but Koepka also is a finisher. This already is a race for second place.

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If the Wanamaker doesn’t go to Koepka, who is your way too early call on who it will be from here?

EVERILL: The easy answer here is Tommy Fleetwood. Just four back with plenty of golf left. Fleetwood has been trending towards a major breakthrough for some time. Remember, it was Fleetwood who put up a Sunday 63 at last year’s U.S. Open to finish runner up to Koepka. But I cannot give up on Jason Day just yet. He missed some short putts and still shot 69. No one had more birdies than him at THE NORTHERN TRUST at Bethpage Black in 2016.

MARTIN: Rickie Fowler. He shot 69 today after starting his day with a double-bogey on the difficult 10th hole, which may be the unkindest opener around. He hit 14 greens and, well, he has to win one of these things eventually.

McALLISTER: I expect Dustin Johnson to make his presence known at some point. His 69 on Thursday leaves just a handful of names between him and workout buddy Koepka. Would love to see those two duel on Sunday.

MORFIT: I picked Dustin Johnson before the tournament, and a 1-under 69 when he didn't even play particularly well did nothing to change my mind. He just has to see some putts go in and he'll be dangerous on this course.

BOLTON: Focusing only on the 16 with a red number on the board on Thursday, I gotta default to DJ; that is, if he can find the range with the putter. He hit 15 GIR and connected on only one try for birdie. (His other birdie was a hole-out from the rough off the green.)

What was the biggest surprise of the opening round?

EVERILL: I could say Danny Lee’s 64 but honestly I was more surprised by Jordan Spieth’s 1-under 69. Spieth has been in terrible form of late but insisted he’s out of his slump in the lead up. Perhaps he was right. The career grand slam is still alive… although the big problem has been putting four rounds together… so we will see.

MARTIN: Brooks’ 63. That’s not a knock on him. It’s credit to how impressive that round was. The talk all week was about how tough this place was. The rough is so thick that it requires hack-outs most of the time. But he dominated, beating the field average by about 10 strokes.

McALLISTER: Don’t know if this technically is a surprise given that he just won on Sunday, but you have to be impressed with Sung Kang backing up his first PGA TOUR win in Dallas with a 68. Hangovers after that breakthrough victory are usually a given, but Kang obviously is in form and riding the momentum.

MORFIT: To me, the biggest surprise was Koepka. I know he's won three majors in less than two years, but to go bogey-free around here is impressive, and to sprinkle in seven birdies is just astronomically so.

BOLTON: In my world, it has to be Jorge Campillo’s 77. The Spaniard entered the week having gone T2-T2-T20-3rd-Win-3rd to rise to No. 2 in the Race to Dubai on the European Tour. Yet, on Thursday, he hit only seven GIR and his only birdie conversion traveled 39 feet on a par 5.

Tiger Woods opened with a 2-over 72. Can you rule out PGA TOUR win number 82 this week?

EVERILL: Sadly, yes. It is just too much of a head start on such a tough golf course. Three straight 67s as the greens start to firm up… that will be tough. And perhaps not enough. He will fight back but fall short.

MARTIN: I’m not ready to say it’s over yet. I thought he looked good. There were just some of those sloppy mistakes that are understandable from a guy who’s playing his first tournament in a month. He had birdie putts on 9 of his last 10 holes, and the exception was barely off the putting surface. He missed all five of his putts from 5-10 feet today. This one could have been lower. Most importantly, he drove the ball well.

McALLISTER: Still willing to give him one more round before writing him off as a contender. But he needs a big Friday. If he shoots the low round of the day – or at least close to it – then he’ll have the New Yorkers buzzing this weekend.

MORFIT: I feel like it's over for Tiger, but I still think he'll bounce back and finish in the top 15. You just can't stake Koepka to a nine-shot lead and expect to come back from it.

BOLTON: Nope. Of course he’ll need help, which Koepka is unlikely to provide, but Woods forever plays until the whistle blows. That said, I was hoping for no worse than a 71 on Thursday.