Horses for Courses: AT&T Byron Nelson
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All-time shots from AT&T Byron Nelson
The state of Texas hosts five events on the PGATOUR calendar this season and the AT&T Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch bats in the clean-up spot in the order for the second consecutive year. The TOUR will complete the quintet of events in a fortnight at Colonial after playing the PGA Championship at Southern Hills in Tulsa next week.
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The preparation for the PGA Championship this time last year was an exercise in loosening up the shoes, swinging hard and making as many birdies as possible.
Tom Weiskopf's Par-72 was absolutely run over as it played the fifth easiest of 51 layouts on TOUR last season at 69.574. The only two Par-72 tracks to play easier were Sherwood Country Club (ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP) and Caves Valley (BMW Championship).
Superlatives:
• The top 36 players all made 20 or more birdies.
• There were exactly nine rounds over par from the top 54 players for the ENTIRE week.
• The top six players were 20-under or better.
• The top 60 players were 10-under or better.
The recipe for success will be very similar this week as the design obviously is built around Mother Nature and the Texas wind. There's PLENTY of room (35 acres) of fairway off the tee so if it does blow, there's ample space to get it in play.
Bentgrass greens roll true and at 6,800 feet on average there's not much excuse not to hit them. Putts fall here because the Stimpmeter hangs right around 11 to 12 feet because nobody wants golf balls blowing off the greens. It's also close to a perfect speed to hole putts and not have the fear of running them by four to five feet!
Need a key stat this week?
| Strokes Gained: Approach the Green - Rank | Player | 2021 Finish |
| 1 | Will Zalatoris | T17 |
| 2 | KH Lee | WIN |
| 3 | Luke Donald | T13 |
| 4 | Patton Kizzire | T3 |
| 5 | Charl Schwartzel | T3 |
| 6 | Sam Burns | 2nd |
| 7 | Daniel Berger (not entered) | T3 |
| 8 | Jordan Spieth | T9 |
| 9 | Carlos Ortiz | T21 |
| 10 | Hank Lebioda | T17 |
There is NEVER one stat that tells the entire story except the least amount of strokes taken at the END of 72 holes but we're always looking for clues!
While TPC Craig Ranch is hosting just for the second time, I'd also take a look at winners from other events in Texas who are used to these conditions. The wind always blows in Texas. Adam Scott remains the only player to win all four stroke play events in the Lone Star State in PGATOUR history.
Another direction would be those who excel on Tom Weiskopf designs. KH Lee lost by a shot to Brooks Koepka at the 2021 WM Phoenix Open before arriving to TPC Craig Ranch and posting 25-under to win by three.
The field of 156 will be reduced to the top 65 and ties to play the final two rounds. On the line is a purse of $9 million with the winner collecting $1.63 million plus 500 FedExCup points. If not already qualified, the champion will be the last player entered into the 2022 PGA Championship.
Let's find some horses for courses!
Horses for Courses
| 2021 AT&T Byron Nelson Top Finishers | 2022 BET MGM ODDS Win, Top 10, Top 20 |
| 1 KH Lee | +8000; +750; +350 |
| 2 Sam Burns | +2000; +200; -120 |
| 3 Patton Kizzire | +6600; +600; +275 |
| 3 Charl Schwartzel | +25000; +1400; +600 |
| 3 Scott Stallings | +10000; +1000; +450 |
| 7 Joseph Bramlett | +25000; +1600; +700 |
| 9 Seamus Power | +5000; +450; +200 |
| 9 Doc Redman | +20000; +1400; +600 |
| 9 Jordan Spieth | +2200; +200; -120 |
| 9 Jhonattan Vegas | +4000; +400; +180 |
| 13 Luke Donald | +25000; +1800; +700 |
| 17 Matt Kuchar | +8000; +600; +275 |
| 17 Hank Lebioda | +20000; +1600; +650 |
| 17 Brandt Snedeker | +250000; +2000; +800 |
| 17 Will Zalatoris | +2200; +225; +100 |
| 21 Marc Leishman | +6600; +550; +250 |
| 21 Alex Noren | +6600; +500; +225 |
| 21 Carlos Ortiz | +15000; +1100; +450 |
| 21 Lee Westwood | +15000; +1400; +550 |
| 2012 KFT TOUR Championship Top Finishers Late October | |
| 2 James Hahn | +15000; +1400; +600 |
| 3 Adam Hadwin | +5000; +450; +200 |
| 19 Brice Garnett | +25000; +2000; +800 |
| 19 Cam Percy | +40000; +2500; +1100 |
| 25 Robert Streb | +25000; +1800; +750 |
| 31 Joseph Bramlett | +25000; +1600; +700 |
| 31 Scott Gutschewski | +35000; +2500; +1100 |
| 35 Dawie Van Der Walt | +50000; +3500; +1400 |
| 39 Hudson Swafford | +25000; +1400; +600 |
| 47 Brian Stuard | +20000; +1600; +700 |
| 53 Ben Kohles | +35000; +2500; +1100 |
Odds sourced on Tuesday, May 10th at 1 p.m. ET. For live odds visit betmgm.
Recent Event Winner Stats
| Year | 2021 |
| Winner | KH Lee |
| Score | 263 (-25) |
| MOV | 3 |
| Cut | 6-under |
| Age | 29 |
| Pre Tournament Odds | +15000 |
| Disantance - All Drives | T37 |
| Driving Accuarcy | T41 |
| GIR | T5 |
| Ball-Striking | 20 |
| Proximity | 4 |
| Putting: Birdie or Better % | 2 |
| SG: Off-the-Tee | 23 |
| SG: Approach-the-Green | 2 |
| SG: Around-the-Green | 24 |
| SG: Putting | 9 |
| SG: Tee-to-Green | 2 |
| Scrambling | T18 |
| Bogey Avoidance | T1 (3 total) |
| Par-3 Scoring | T3 |
| Par-4 Scoring | 2 |
| Par-5 Scoring | T8 |
Extra Credit (players entered this week only)
2021
KH Lee secured his first TOUR victory and became the second Korean winner in as many events in Dallas (Sung Kang, 2019). ... Sam Burns (2nd) posted the tournament course record (62) in Round 2 and led after 36 and 54 holes. ... Patton Kizzire (T3) posted rounds of 64 and 63, low round of the day Sunday. ... Charl Schwartzel (T3) made two eagles and just three bogeys (T1) for the week. ... Scott Stallings (T3) led the field with 30 birdies. ... Joseph Bramlett (T7) registered just T59 Fairways. ... Seamus Power (T9) led the field in SG: Around the Green and Scrambling while carding just two bogeys and a double. ... Doc Redman (T9) hit 48 of 56 Fairways, best of the week. ... Jordan Spieth (T9) opened with 63 to share the first round lead with JJ Spaun (T47). ... Only Zalatoris and Redman hit more GIR than Jhonattan Vegas (T9) for the week. ... 2019 event champion Sung Kang (T47) didn't fare as well on this layout as he did at Trinity Forest.
Notes:
• 59 bogey free rounds for the week but only one on Sunday (DeChambeau, not entered).
• Of the 72 players to make the cut (6-under) 63 of them squared LESS THAN 10 BOGEYS for the week.
• Hank Lebioda led the field in Proximity.
• Kizzire led the field in Par-3 scoring (-4).
• Lift, Clean and Place in effect Round 1 in closely mown areas.
Key stat leaders
Top golfers in each statistic on the 2021-2022 PGA TOUR are listed only if they are scheduled to compete this week.
| Round in the 60s | |
| Rank | Player |
| 1 | Tom Hoge |
| 2 | Talor Gooch |
| 3 | Sahith Theegala |
| 4 | Adam Hadwin |
| 6 | Matthew NeSmith |
| 6 | JJ Spaun |
| 6 | Brian Stuard |
| 11 | Lanto Griffin |
| 11 | Maverick McNealy |
| 11 | Keith Mitchell |
| 18 | Matt Kuchar |
| 18 | Davis Riley |
| 18 | Greyson Sigg |
| Strokes Gained: Approach the Green | |
| Rank | Player |
| 2 | Will Zalatoris |
| 4 | Justin Thomas |
| 9 | Tom Hoge |
| 10 | Kurt Kitayama |
| 11 | Sam Burns |
| 12 | Hideki Matsuyama |
| 14 | Luke Donald |
| 15 | Austin Smotherman |
| 17 | Adam Hadwin |
| 18 | Mito Pererira |
| 19 | Talor Gooch |
| Birdie or Better Percentage | |
| Rank | Player |
| 2 | Justin Thomas |
| 5 | Scottie Scheffler |
| 8 | Sam Burns |
| 10 | Cam Percy |
| 13 | Xander Schauffele |
| 14 | Dustin Johnson |
| 17 | Marc Leishman |
| 19 | Maverick McNealy |
| 23 | Vince Whaley |
| 24 | Hideki Matsuyama |
| 25 | Jason Day |