Sleeper Picks: Butterfield Bermuda Championship

NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

Outright

Patrick Rodgers (+2500) … It’s time. It’s also a reminder that Sleeper is a relative term. Indeed, at tied for sixth among the shortest odds on the board, the veteran objectively is not according to the algorithm at BetMGM. However, as he preps for his fifth appearance at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, he’s paid off this bet precisely zero times in 279 PGA TOUR starts. So, why now? Well, in his last two appearances at Port Royal, he finished fourth (2021) and T3 (2022) with a scoring average of 67.25 across those starts. He also paced the field in putting and co-led in par-5 scoring in his last visit. With two top 25s contributing to a 4-for-5 in the FedExCup Fall, the 32-year-old is 55th in points, so he’s not as pressured to perform to retain position inside the Aon Next 10. That frees him to continue to chase his primary goal with his balanced bag.

Top 5

Andrew Putnam (+600) … He hasn’t connected for a top-five in just over a year, and that doesn’t make sense when you stare at the stats on the back of his trading card. But this has been his hangup – struggling often in putting four rounds together despite the profile. But there are murmurs of an uptick. He arrives having signed for eight consecutive red numbers, the last six of which in the 60s. He’s made one appearance in Bermuda, finishing T21 in 2020, so the test isn’t unfamiliar. And yeah, it’s still worth the factual support that he’s among the most accurate from tee to green all the while the putter is the best weapon.

Top 10

Jacob Bridgeman (+300) … At 115th in the FedExCup, the rookie can define his foray as successful. It also has been wild. Consider that only two in his class of 31 – Max Greyserman and Mac Meissner – have more top 25s than his nine, but Bridgeman is one of just eight without a top 10. He had six top 10s in his only full season on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 during which he showcased an elite short game that’s translated to the next level. No concerns about his form upon arrival, either, as he cashed in each of his last four starts with two -- what else – top 25s contributing.

Top 20

Ryan McCormick (+450) … I had him positioned for this bet before the market opened. The 33-year-old is in the same lane as fellow rookie Joe Highsmith; that is, both endured a challenging regular season with only one top 20 before finding a groove in the FedExCup Fall. To be certain, Highsmith’s post-Playoffs series has been a boon, so much so that he was an early withdrawal from the Butterfield Bermuda having risen to 112th in points. In contrast, McCormick has climbed to just 159th, but the preferred direction is as a result of a T16 at the Shriners Children’s Open and a T24 at the World Wide Technology Championship. Arguably his best while gripping an iron, he finished a respective T5 and T6 in greens in regulation in those tournaments. That strength will play up in the breezes this week.

Top 40

Rafael Campos (+250) … It’s not Puerto Rico, but if the best player from the U.S. territory squints and takes a deep breath, it just might feel like it. That’s a unique bonus in a diluted market. The 36-year-old has cashed seven times this season, all going for a top 40. The set includes top 20s at the PGA TOUR stop in his homeland and at the Corales Puntacana Championship in the Dominican Republic where he also spends quite a bit of time. He placed T18 in his debut at Port Royal in 2019 as well. Given that he learned how to play golf in the wind on an island, it makes sense that his strongest skill is on approach, so simply making the cut is expected. Then, and although the sample size consists of just six rounds in individual competition, it’s glossy that he leads the PGA TOUR with a final-round scoring average of 67.67.

Odds were sourced at BetMGM.

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