Look to Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy despite late slip-ups at U.S. Open

LOS ANGELES – An incredible opening round of the 123rd U.S. Open is in the books where we saw not one, but two, record scores at The Los Angeles Country Club.

Rickie Fowler posted the first 62 in U.S. Open history and held the distinction alone for an entire 22 minutes before Xander Schauffele matched his 8-under effort.

With the infamous “June gloom” in full effect at LACC, players were treated to as benign conditions as they ever might see at a U.S. Open championship. The cool temperatures stalled any chance of hardening the greens over the opening round and those in good form pounced.

Fowler’s round housed a record-10 birdies and two bogeys while Schauffele was blemish free as they set up a two-shot lead at the top.

Dustin Johnson and Wells Fargo Championship winner Wyndham Clark sit in a tie for third at 6-under with Rory McIlroy and Brian Harman a shot further back after 65s.

Pre-tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler rebounded from a slow start to shoot 67, joining a seven-way tie for seventh.

Similar conditions are forecasted for Friday’s second round, though players are expecting some tougher hole locations. Scoring should become progressively more difficult.

Here are the latest odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

+350: Xander Schauffele (-8, T1)

+550: Rory McIlroy (-5, T5)

+650: Rickie Fowler (-8, T1)

+700: Scottie Scheffler (-3, T7)

+800: Dustin Johnson (-6, T3)

+1400: Wyndham Clark (-6, T3)

+2200: Jon Rahm (-1, T25)

+2500: Bryson DeChambeau (-3, T7)

+3300: Max Homa (-2, T14), Tony Finau (-2, T14), Viktor Hovland (-1, T25)

DRAWS

In general, look for players returning in the morning wave to make a move in the softest part of the round, but be aware, the afternoon wave actually outscored the morning wave in the opening round.

For live bettors, lean on players opening their rounds on the easier front nine and look for opportunities to invest as those who start on the 10th, get past the tough 16-18 stretch.

Rory McIlroy (-5, T5, +550)

After weeks and weeks of fading McIlroy, I am finally going to switch camps and make the three-time FedExCup champion a draw… with a catch. While I am not yet convinced he will go on and capture a fifth major championship on Sunday, I do believe the Northern Irishman will have another good day out on Friday as he goes out in the early hours in calm conditions.

McIlroy will be stinging to get back amongst it on LACC after an embarrassing final-hole approach and whiff from greenside rough that saw him bogey the last.

He ranked second in SG: Off-the-Tee, 16th on Approach and ninth in putting over the first round, bringing some of his old swagger before the late hiccup.

If the +550 doesn’t feel appealing to you with three rounds remaining, look to McIlroy in Friday match ups against playing partners.

Jon Rahm (-1, T25, +2200)

On a day for scoring, the 2021 U.S. Open champion and 2023 Masters champion was dismal off the tee, ranking 141st in the 156-man field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee. But here’s the rub: it’s usually a strength with Rahm ranked 16th on the season, and there is no chance he hits it that poorly again. Rahm also ranked 69th in SG: Tee-to-Green Thursday, a stat he sits second on this season on the TOUR.

With his putter cooperating enough to rank 15th in SG: Putting, the world No. 2 isn’t out of the fight yet, although he is under pressure to go low on Friday. I believe he will.

Scottie Scheffler (-3, T7, +700)

Scheffler was my pre-tournament pick due to his sublime ball-striking but it was his improved putting stats that give me hope despite the fact he’s spotted a five-shot lead. After a few months of dismal putting, the world No. 1 was 29th on Thursday in SG: Putting, gaining +1.486 strokes on the greens.

Now despite a relatively ugly three-putt on the 18th green that gave back a stroke at the end of his round, I am going to bank on Scheffler continuing his improved efforts with the flatstick AND also expect his ball-striking to only get better as conditions get tougher.

“I like competing. I like playing against the best players. I like hard golf courses. So I guess those all kind of line up with the majors. For me it's a fun challenge,” Scheffler said.

FADES

Brian Harman (-5, T5)

While Harman proved himself capable at the beast that was Erin Hills in the 2017 U.S Open (T2), I’m not convinced he will be able to maintain the rage this time around despite an impressive start. Harman ranked an impressive third in SG: Tee-to-Green on Thursday at +4.819, way ahead of his average +0.199 over the season.

Having started the season last fall with a pair of runner-up results, Harman’s game has fallen away. In the 2023 portion of the season he’s added just one more top 10 while missing eight of 15 cuts.

Harman also out pointed his norms on approach play on Thursday but perhaps most worryingly, he was able to gain shots around the green when he usually gives them up in that metric. As conditions get tougher, that short game will need to remain stellar.

Xander Schauffele (-8, T1, +350)

Settle down! I know Schauffele is somewhat of a U.S. Open specialist having never finished worse than a tie for 14th in six tries, but I am fading his short odds for those of you looking to add bets overnight.

There is a more than reasonable chance that Schauffele will not have the lead when he starts his afternoon tee time at LACC on Friday and as such, you’d be wise to wait until moments before he gets underway on the par-5 1st to jump on board the local hero!

Fade the number, not the player.

“The competition definitely feels like a major and a U.S. Open. You just wait until this place firms up. It's going to be nasty,” he said.

“It's just a positioning game. You're just trying to keep yourself in touch and play some good golf. I think if you see a couple 8-unders, you're like, oh, wow, the course can give you some if you're playing well. Besides that, it's just Thursday.”