As long as they’re still standing upon arrival down Magnolia Lane, Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy will be the betting favorites next month at the Masters Tournament. Their respective performances this week at the Texas Children’s Houston Open won’t change that.

But that doesn’t mean they don’t have something on the line this week at Memorial Park Golf Course as the season’s first major draws closer. And now it looks like they’ll be breaking out their umbrellas in what’s expected to be a stark contrast to last year’s dry and windy conditions.

Scheffler is the sole betting favorite, as he’s been for most of the last year when he decides to tee it up. The goal this week will be to go one spot better than last year, when his T2 finish at this event behind Stephan Jaeger, proved to be his lone moment of invincibility in a five-start stretch that included four wins.

“It’s a big golf course, you’ve got to hit it far out here," Scheffler said. "So there (are) definitely some similarities and good preparation between here and Augusta. Feeling pretty good. Excited about the stuff that we’re working on right now and game feels like it’s in a good spot.”

McIlroy is listed at +650 at FanDuel Sportsbook, behind only Scheffler at +350, and he has essentially channeled some of Scheffler 2024 for his start to 2025. A win at Pebble Beach was followed by an overtime triumph at THE PLAYERS, and now he’ll look to follow in Scheffler’s 2022 footsteps by winning three times prior to the Masters before (potentially) slipping into that elusive green jacket.

“I just want to get a card in my hand and shoot scores and hopefully get myself in contention and try to win another golf tournament,” McIlroy said. “It’s not as if I’m playing here this week and thinking about two weeks’ time. I’m here, I’m in the present, I’m trying to do my best this week and trying to win this golf tournament.”

But the task at hand this week for both Scheffler and McIlroy will be a bit wetter than anticipated. The Houston area is expected to get rocked with some rain over the next two days, with the official PGA TOUR forecast calling for water-logged conditions.

“Showers are likely on Thursday, with thunderstorms possible in the afternoon,” the forecast reads. “Total rainfall by Thursday evening is forecast around a half inch. Heavy rain and thunderstorms are likely Thursday night and throughout the day on Friday, with total rainfall well over an inch. Localized heavier amounts are possible on Friday, with some locations receiving over 2 inches.”

Stretched to nearly 7,500 yards but still playing as a par 70, Memorial Park Golf Course was already a layout that favored strength with driver in hand and offered relatively few obstacles off the tee. The scales will tip even further in that direction now given the forecast, with a long course only playing longer this weekend.

“Obviously with the weather coming in it’s going to be soft, it’s going to play even longer," said defending champ Stephan Jaeger. "The greens won’t quite be as maybe firm or fast. The scores won’t be super low. It’s a different challenge than, for instance, last week. The views are wide open off the tee, but it’s definitely a second-shot golf course to where you have to miss it in the right spot.”

There’s a big gap in the betting odds between Scheffler and McIlroy and the rest of the field in Houston, but the forecast might be music to the ears of one of their closest pursuers: Aaron Rai.

Rai is priced at +2800 this week, and he’s among the best players on TOUR in “mudder” conditions – case in point, last year’s Wyndham Championship where he won a rain-deluged event. It was his fourth top-10 finish among “rain-affected” tournaments last year.

Another who might benefit from the latest forecast is another recent winner on TOUR, Taylor Pendrith. The Canadian captured THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson last spring among three rain-impacted top-10 finishes. He’s also among the best drivers on TOUR, ranking third in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee this season. Pendrith has struggled in recent weeks as venues shifted from California to Florida, but the confluence of factors at hand this week could create some value around him at +4500 or in derivative markets.

There’s also some Masters motivation to factor in amid the raindrops. This week marks the final cutoff in the Official World Golf Ranking, with the top 50 in Monday’s standings all securing invites down Magnolia Lane. It’s a particularly tantalizing incentive for world No. 52 Michael Kim and No. 53 Ben Griffin, who have both been in chase mode for the last several weeks.

“I’m really running on fumes at this point,” Kim tweeted earlier this week, as he gets set for his eighth start in as many weeks. “I still have one more chance at qualifying for the Masters. I’ll (probably) need a top 20 to get a spot. At this point, I’ll be happy with or without the week off, but I want to give myself the opportunity.”

The grind has been even longer for Griffin, who has never played the Masters and is making his 12th straight start dating back to the Sony Open in Hawaii. Kim will need at least a top-50 finish to have a chance, while Griffin will need to at least crack the top 28, although as Kim’s comments alluded to, the actual required finish will vary based on how others around him in the rankings perform this week.

While neither one jumps off the page as a bomber off the tee, the wet weather could mean a more optimistic outlook around Kim (+3500). He’s a solid ball-striker this year, ranking 11th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 13th in SG: Total. He also has a tidy short game, ranking 11th in SG: Around the Green – a particularly important metric at Memorial Park Golf Course since the tournament moved here in 2019.

With approaches coming from longer distances in wet conditions, the frequency of missed greens in regulation should tick upwards for the field. Kim’s combination of skills could prove especially beneficial, and you know he’ll be fully focused over the weekend in head-to-head markets or chasing a top-20 or top-30 place finish that could potentially deliver his first Masters invite since 2019.

It's rare as bettors that we know players are tangibly focused on those sort of finish position cutoffs, so it’s a handy variable to consider when it comes up.

Texas Children’s Houston Open betting card (revised for weather considerations):

• To win: Aaron Rai (+2800)
• Top-10 finish: Taylor Pendrith (+400)
• Top-20 finish: Michael Kim (+160)
• 72-hole matchup: Michael Kim (-115) over Sungjae Im

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