After winning the most dramatic match of the season on the final putt of the night, Atlanta Drive GC is on the cusp of the first-ever TGL championship.

This means, of course, it might be time to bet against them.

Xander Schauffele’s 6-foot birdie miss on the 15th and final hole gave Atlanta a narrow 6-5 victory over New York Golf Club in the first leg of the best-of-three finals. Patrick Cantlay had rolled in a putt from a similar length just before Schauffele to apply the pressure, and now Cantlay, Justin Thomas and Billy Horschel are one win away from the season-long title. Should New York win Match 2 to draw even, a winner-take-all third match would be played Tuesday night to crown a champion.

Atlanta Drive were slim favorites to win the best-of-three series entering Monday’s match, with FanDuel Sportsbook pricing them at -132 while NYGC was listed at -102. Now equipped with a 1-up advantage, Atlanta is -120 to close out the title with a win in Match 2 on Tuesday night, but they’re a whopping -550 to win either of Tuesday’s potential matches to lift the trophy.

New York, on the other hand, is +350 to complete the comeback. But let’s look at the odds of the individual matches: NYGC is listed at -110 in Match 2, while the trio of Xander Schauffele, Cameron Young and Rickie Fowler are priced at +100 for a potential Match 3 (with Atlanta Drive favored at -125). If you ran a standard two-leg parlay with those individual odds (-110 and +100), you’d only expect a payout in the +280 range.

So whether oddsmakers are leaning into recency bias, assuming bettors will favor the team that won last night – and defeated NYGC by a 4-0 margin in the regular season – the two-way market of who will lift the trophy seems to present some value with the underdogs.

Play: New York GC to win title (+350)

On the individual side, Atlanta Drive’s Billy Horschel tipped his hand Monday night that he’s been checking the comments section. Horschel noted that writer Kyle Porter had been consistently picking against him in Singles’ predictions throughout the season during previews, to the point that Horschel had spotted the trend.

“Up until last week I had won every one of them,” Horschel said. “I’m very well aware of when people are picking against me. I want to prove them wrong, and I want to beat the person I’m going against as bad as anybody I’ve ever gone against at that moment.”

So while I’m not looking to join Porter on Horschel’s radar, I do expect Horschel to look to back up those comments in his remaining Singles opportunities. In Match 2 that will mean facing off with Rickie Fowler on Nos. 11 (“The Claw”) and 14 (“On the Rocks”). Horschel is listed at +270 and +350, respectively, to win the hole, meaning you can eke out a profit by betting both options and having him win either one. The odds on No. 14 are higher since it’s a par 3, increasing the chances for a tie. A two-hole sweep, of course, would mean a significant windfall.

Given that Horschel is now 7-2-3 in Singles, the best of any remaining player, and Fowler’s record sits at 3-5-6, it feels like an opportunity to ride with Horschel as he looks to back up the talk.

Play: Billy Horschel to win No. 11 (+270) and No. 14 (+350) in Match 2

On the trend side, there’s no denying the fact that a hot start will be of importance for both sides. Including Monday’s match, when Atlanta Drive got out to a 2-0 lead en route to a 6-5 victory, neither team has lost after establishing a lead. That includes their regular-season match when NYGC failed to score a point. All told, Atlanta Drive is 5-0 after scoring first, while New York is 2-0-1.

Schauffele, Young and Fowler will start with their backs against the wall, so getting the first point on the board will take on even more importance in their comeback bid. Atlanta Drive will start with the honors in Match 2, but New York will be focused on scoring an early point – particularly Schauffele, who let an overtime opportunity slip away with his putter Monday night.

If New York is going to pull off the comeback, it will need to start early.

Play: New York GC to lead Match 2 after three holes (+145)

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