Five betting lessons from The Open: Is Xander Schauffele top Grand Slam candidate?

TROON, Scotland – A memorable week at The 152nd Open Championship is in the books. Xander Schauffele has a shiny new piece of luggage, players are once again keenly aware of just how stern of a test Royal Troon Golf Club can provide, and American fans can reset their alarm clocks.

But there are always lessons to be learned from a betting perspective, as we digest what happened and look to apply it to future handicaps – even though the next men’s major now looms nine long months away.

From Schauffele to Scheffler and in between, here’s a look at five betting takeaways from a memorable week along the Scottish coast:

1. Xander Schauffele is the most likely candidate to complete the career Grand Slam

Schauffele was the man of the majors this year, finishing T8 or better in all four while becoming the first player to bag multiple majors in the same season since 2016. And while he doesn’t have three legs of the Slam like some of his peers, his well-rounded skillset makes him the most likely to join the elite company of Tiger Woods, Jack Nicklaus and others in a few years’ time.

Schauffele’s record in the majors is nothing short of astounding: 30 career starts, exactly half (15) inside the top 10 with eight top-five results and now two victories. He has finished T18 or better in 11 straight majors while displaying the sort of game that is able to contend on any venue.

Schauffele has come close before at the Masters, notably in 2021 when he nearly chased down Hideki Matsuyama, and he has never finished worse than T14 in eight career U.S. Open starts. Honestly, The Open may have been the hardest for him to get – and now he’s holding onto the claret jug for the next 12 months.

As Ben Everill wrote last month from Pinehurst, my optimism on Rory McIlroy winning any major – let alone the one he so dearly covets at Augusta National – wanes with each passing year. Similarly, Jordan Spieth seems like a shell of the man that captured the first three legs in quick succession from 2015-17. Had you asked me entering the week who was most likely to get all four legs, I probably would have sided with Collin Morikawa – who, like Schauffele, has the PGA and The Open in his back pocket and the game to suit the Masters and U.S. Open. But now that Schauffele is on even footing, I give him an edge moving forward.

2. The Open will always be the most unpredictable major

The weather comes and the weather goes. The winds shift, and while one ball misses a pot bunker another veers inches farther off-line and results in someone hitting out sideways. The vagaries of links golf were on full display this week at Royal Troon, where Mother Nature had an ample hand in deciding a winner.

The winds kicked up in a big way Friday afternoon, where seemingly only Justin Rose wasn’t blown off-course, and Saturday’s weather was one for the history books. Speaking after Round 3, Mackenzie Hughes rightfully surmised that he would have been better shooting four or five shots worse through 36 holes and trying to shoot a 66 in easier conditions than to try to hold on for dear life as he did through the teeth of the storm.

Those are elements that are hard to handicap in the moment, let alone days or weeks in advance. It’s part of the charm of this tournament, but also part of what makes it among the most difficult to handicap. Course comparisons and player traits can only take you so far when the clouds roll across the Firth of Clyde – and remember that Schauffele’s performance, while memorable, was the only thing keeping us from having a longshot winner of significant proportion, regardless of who among the next four names would have emerged victorious.

3. Scottie Scheffler’s undoing, while infrequent, is still from close range

The world No. 1 was making his typical Sunday charge in Troon, steadily climbing the yellow leaderboards lining the course, when disaster struck on the ninth green. A three-putt from 5 feet led to a double bogey, and in a matter of seconds, Scheffler went from one of the betting favorites to a +3000 outsider. He was never the same again, ultimately finishing T7.

It’s impossible to call a six-win (and counting) season a disappointment, but there’s no denying that the form Scheffler has displayed over the last six months should have earned multiple majors. But should doesn’t apply inside the ropes. Instead, it’s Schauffele who will be remembered as the majors MVP from 2024, while Scheffler’s Masters triumph (and talk of the single-season Grand Slam) has faded a bit from memory amid the Xander double-dip.

Scheffler has every shot in the book, and he continues to play at a remarkably high level. It would surprise no one if he slips on a gold medal in Paris next week, or wins a FedExCup Playoff event next month to bolster his season-long credentials. But on the biggest stages, his occasionally balky putter – which was the only reason why his dominance started at Bay Hill instead of earlier on the West Coast Swing – will likely be the thing holding him back.

4. The margins for Rory McIlroy grow smaller in the majors

Weeks like this at Royal Troon likely serve to make his near-miss at Pinehurst all the more difficult to stomach. McIlroy is keenly aware of just how many things have to go right to give yourself a chance to win on Sunday at a major, and he saw this week in Scotland how quickly things can go up in flames.

Perhaps not since his opening triple bogey at Royal Portrush in 2019 has McIlroy shot himself out of a major so quickly. An opening 78 meant just making the cut was a longshot, and even he admitted that after 22 holes (at which point he was 12-over) he was already thinking about where to go on vacation.

Next year will make it 11 years since his last major win in 2014, a gap between major triumphs that would tie the all-time record. It’s a gulf that few have bridged – Tiger Woods is the last to do it, winning majors in 2008 and 2019, while other names on the list include Ben Crenshaw and Hale Irwin. Justin Rose nearly added his name to the ledger, having finished runner-up in Troon 11 years after his major moment at Merion.

At age 35, McIlroy is still very much in his peak, but major victories don’t grow on trees. If history is any indication there will be a sense of urgency next year, but as he looks ahead to another chorus of questions about his Masters prep, the Ulsterman is keenly aware of just how easily (and quickly) a major can slip away once you head to the first tee.

5. Shane Lowry will win another Open

It took him a while to get the hang of this event, with four straight missed cuts from 2015-18, but he now looks the part of a multiple major champion. Lowry got the better of the draw Thursday-Friday but gave back those gains and more by playing in the worst of the weather for his entire third round. He made a charge Sunday on the front nine, ultimately carding a closing 68 for a sixth-place finish.

It's his third top-25 finish in four starts since breaking through at Royal Portrush in 2019, and the lone blemish there came last year – which Lowry chalked up as a byproduct of playing the Genesis Scottish Open instead of returning home to Ireland for his usual links prep. His thorough nature shone brightly over the first two days, when he seemed more prepared than most to handle the unexpected wind direction, and he showed over the course of 72 holes the type of shot-making and creativity that got his name on the claret jug five years ago.

Lowry will be in the spotlight next year, when the tournament returns to Royal Portrush, and at age 37 he has plenty more Opens left to contend. Just look to Justin Rose and Adam Scott, who both finished inside the top 10 around their 44th birthday, to recall that a veteran presence usually benefits at The Open.

It wasn’t to be this week, but sometime down the road Lowry will join his countryman Padraig Harrington in having his name engraved for a second time.

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