Matchup Minute: Ride the ball-striking wave with Tom Kim at TPC Craig Ranch

We’re one week away from the PGA Championship and one sleep away from the start of the AT&T Byron Nelson.

The tournament will take place at TPC Craig Ranch, which features rolling hills, zoysia grass fairways and Rowlett Creek, which meanders throughout the course on 14 of the 18 holes. The rough is essentially non-existent, but with a wide array of hole types, 83 bunkers throughout the course and four water hazards that come into play on 13 holes, precision iron play and solid putting this week is essential. The course also has a wide-open layout, making it susceptible to windy conditions.

TPC Craig Ranch hosted the Korn Ferry Tour Championship in 2008 and 2012; the winning scores for both years were 16 and 17 under, respectively. The two-time defending champion, K.H. Lee, shot winning scores of 25 and 26 under; we shouldn’t be surprised if this American-Links design again gives up a ton of birdies this week despite playing to a revised par of 71.

Here are some head-to-head matchups to consider this week in the Lone Star State, with odds via BetMGM Sportsbook unless otherwise noted:

Tom Kim (-102) over Jason Day (72-hole matchup)

The ball-striking is coming back for Kim, gaining an average of 2.2 strokes off the tee and just under 2.5 strokes with his irons over his previous two starts. A missed cut at the RBC Heritage was a headscratcher, but his putter’s been ice-cold – which can wreak havoc on other parts of your game if you lose confidence on the greens. Still, a top-25 at the challenging, long track of Quail Hollow was a solid bounce back for the No. 19 golfer in the world. Jason Day (-126) is playing fantastic, and he’s won this event in the past, but it was before it moved to TPC Craig Ranch. In the two years the tournament’s been in McKinney, Day’s finishes are 51-MC. Kim finished 17th here last season, gaining 5.7 strokes with his irons. Back the Korean sensation in this matchup of international stars.

Nate Lashley (-126) over MJ Daffue (72-hole matchup)

It’s difficult not to be drawn toward Lashley at a birdie-fest, especially when he’s hitting it well. Lashley gained 6.6 strokes at Wells Fargo last week, making it five straight starts with positive approach play. Two top-40s and a top-30 in his previous three starts, along with a 17th here last season, are all good signs that Lashley should be confident in McKinney. Daffue is coming off a 47th at Wells Fargo and finished 64th at this year’s Puerto Rico Open, a course similar to what we’ll see at TPC Craig Ranch. You can find this matchup on Fanduel.

3-Ball: Taylor Montgomery (+120) over Richard S. Johnson and Si Woo Kim

Once a preseason darling, Montgomery has hit a rough patch, missing the weekend in his previous two starts (Wells Fargo, RBC Heritage). Montgomery needs to get back on track to get back, and there’s no better elixir for the big man than a birdie-fest where putting is at a premium. Even though he’s struggling with consistency, he still ranks inside the top 20 in Strokes Gained: Total over his previous 36 rounds. Montgomery is also one of the longest hitters in the field; he’ll be able to lean on the driver much more than in his last couple of starts. Si Woo Kim (-110) rates out nicely on any TPC course, but we should take some chances with Monty at plus-money instead of laying standard juice with Si Woo.

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