Emotions on full display with match play format in Austin

AUSTIN, Texas. – Let the games begin.

Those who know me know it’s no secret that the World Golf Championships – Dell Technologies Match Play is one of my favorite tournaments on the PGA TOUR schedule as it brings primal, competitive emotions to the forefront.

There is nowhere to hide. It’s you against the man across the tee box. While there is always a battle of skill, this adds an element of will, as you can win or lose at 6 under – or 6 over.

I’ll never forget my introduction to TOUR-level match play at this event back in 2011, when a young Jason Day played mind games on the experienced Paul Casey and won. Day failed to concede short putts, walked out in front of opponents so they psychologically saw his back all day… deliberately did things to get under the skin of opponents… I was hooked.

He would go on to be a two-time champion of the event, and spoiler alert, I believe has a great chance to join only Tiger Woods as a three-time champion. But he’ll likely have to get past defending champ and recent PLAYERS champion Scottie Scheffler at some point to do so. Pulling that off will require a Herculean effort from anyone in the 64-man field.

Scheffler is the rightful +800 betting favorite with BetMGM Sportsbook. His career record in the event is 10-2-2, having lost the final in 2021 in his debut before winning the tournament last season.

But who might challenge him? Let’s break down each group and try to help you pick a winning bracket.

*(Bold is my Group Winner)

GROUP 1

1 Scottie Scheffler (+100 to win group)

17 Tom Kim (+320)

38 Alex Noren (+400)

54 Davis Riley (+550)

Analysis: You’d be mad to select against Scheffler given not only his 10-2-2 record at Austin Country Club but the fact he’s already won the WM Phoenix Open and The PLAYERS Championship this season. But a potential mouth-watering Friday matchup exists if he and Tom Kim can win their opening matches. Kim was the energy behind the International Team at The Presidents Cup on his way to winning two matches. Can he find that fire in Austin? Alex Noren is a sleeper here, as he is 12-4 at Austin Country Club.

GROUP 16

16 Sungjae Im (+160)

24 Tommy Fleetwood (+220)

43 J.T. Poston (+400)

58 Maverick McNealy (+400)

Analysis: My first big upset here as I’m siding with the “D” player of the group, but McNealy was great here a year ago. A former college and amateur standout, he’s coming off a rib/shoulder complaint but can still shock this stacked group, especially as he leads the TOUR this season in Strokes Gained: Putting. Top seed Im is 2-4 here and Fleetwood is 11-9-2 career in this event, getting out of the group stage twice from six attempts. While he’s contended heavily the last two weeks, there is a chance of fatigue factor kicking in.

GROUP 8

8 Viktor Hovland (+160)

28 Chris Kirk (+333)

34 Si Woo Kim (+300)

59 Matt Kuchar (+350)

Analysis: A cagey veteran looms as a spoiler in this group, as Kuchar’s 34-11-4 record at this event includes four semifinal appearances, two final two appearances and one victory (2013). Hovland is potentially vulnerable as he ranks 165th on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green and scrambling will be especially important in close matches. Kirk and Kim are both winners this season, but can they turn it into match play success? Kim is 5-8-3 in this event, getting out of the group just once in five tries while Kirk’s last appearance was in 2016 where he lost to Rory McIlroy in the semifinals.

GROUP 9

9 Collin Morikawa (+170)

32 Jason Day (+210)

44 Adam Svensson (+400)

51 Victor Perez (+400)

Analysis: As mentioned above, Day is a born match-play machine. Day won in Tucson in 2014 and here in Austin in 2016 but since has failed to get out of the group stage. This year he enters off the back of six straight top-20 finishes, four of those top 10s and is inside the top 40 of all major Strokes Gained metrics. Morikawa is a tee-to-green machine but at 119th in SG: Putting he can certainly be put under pressure on the greens. We can’t discount Perez, who in his lone Austin appearance in 2021 went all the way to the semifinals before falling to eventual winner Billy Horschel.

GROUP 4

4 Patrick Cantlay (+110)

25 Brian Harman (+300)

35 K.H. Lee (+450)

55 Nick Taylor (+450)

Analysis: Cantlay is the second shortest priced to get out of the group stage behind only Scheffler despite never having done so in four attempts. It is through lack of confidence of the other group members that I see him advancing rather than confidence in Cantlay. He is certainly the most talented of the group, but I see his mind focused on an event two weeks from now. Perhaps his biggest challenge comes from Taylor, who has two top-10s in his last five, including his runner up effort at the WM Phoenix Open. Harman has missed four of his last six cuts and Lee has been inconsistent at best this season.

GROUP 13

13 Sam Burns (+200)

30 Seamus Power (+280)

33 Adam Scott (+333)

53 Adam Hadwin (+275)

Analysis: Burns has yet to play in this event making him a somewhat unknown quantity. He is coming off a sixth-place finish last week, but can his putting hold up in head-to-head combat? Scott has never really warmed to match play, skipping the event many times, but he was a semifinalist in 2003 and managed to escape his group a year ago before falling in the Round of 16. It always comes down to his putter. Hadwin is back for just the second time. He’s undefeated at 1-0-2 but did not advance last time out in 2018. I’m going to bypass all three and go with Power who took out Sungjae Im, Patrick Cantlay and Tyrrell Hatton on his way to the quarterfinals last year before hitting a red-hot Scheffler.

GROUP 5

5 Max Homa (+140)

18 Hideki Matsuyama (+250)

42 Kevin Kisner (+500)

63 Justin Suh (+350)

Analysis: I’m not going to lie; I’m expecting big things from Max Homa this week. Match Play seems right up his alley – something he proved at last years Presidents Cup. But he has a dangerous group here. Justin Suh is a ball-striking machine with nothing to lose as the last guy in the field, and Kevin Kisner’s record is an imposing 22-7-1 at this event including a win in 2019 and a runner up finish last year. Sadly for Kisner, his form coming in has flat-out stunk, missing four of his last five cuts. Matsuyama, like Suh, is able to put on a stripe show tee to green but will he make the putts when they matter?

GROUP 12

12 Jordan Spieth (+160)

21 Shane Lowry (+260)

47 Taylor Montgomery (+300)

50 Mackenzie Hughes (+450)

Analysis: Have the Jordan Spieth fans rebounded from last Sunday yet? Another full Spieth experience is teed up this week as the local Texan tries to shed his poor finish at Valspar and focus on the positives that put him in contention. In the seven appearances using the group play system Spieth has come out just twice and then immediately lost. Lowry is zero from six getting out of group play while Hughes advanced from his group in 2021 but failed to do so last year. Montgomery is the wildcard here. The TOUR rookie ranks second in SG: Putting and could be sneaky good head-to-head.

GROUP 2

2 Jon Rahm (+125)

22 Billy Horschel (+450)

39 Keith Mitchell (+333)

49 Rickie Fowler (+333)

Analysis: They certainly didn’t do Rahm any favors with this group. Fowler returns to the event for the first time since 2016, chasing a Masters berth via the Official World Golf Rankings. He needs to get out of the group to have a chance. A semifinalist in 2014, Fowler is trending off eight straight made cuts and six top 20s this season. Mitchell will need his best driving game (he’s seventh in SG: Off-the-Tee) to fight fire with fire. He loves the head-to-head aspect but hasn’t translated that to results in his first two trips to Austin. Horschel won the event two years ago and is a proven competitor. But swing issues have plagued him this season and at 195th off the tee and 93rd in putting he will need to turn his form around fast. Rahm has won his group three of five times with a best finish of runner-up in 2017.

GROUP 15

15 Cameron Young (+150)

27 Sepp Straka (+375)

36 Corey Conners (+225)

57 Davis Thompson (+475)

Analysis: Last year’s Rookie of the Year, Young was cut down by Rahm a year ago and shapes as a potential powerhouse this week but I’m instead pushing for a steady striker out of this group in Conners. A year ago he pushed all the way to the semifinals before losing to Kisner and I’m expecting those good vibes to carry on.

GROUP 7

7 Will Zalatoris (+170)

29 Ryan Fox (+300)

37 Harris English (+300)

56 Andrew Putnam (+350)

Analysis: A sly Fox will surprise those casual golf fans this week but make no mistake, this Kiwi is the real deal. A multiple time winner on the DP World Tour, Fox is looking to prove he should have been a member of the International Presidents Cup team last year. Has five straight worldwide top-30s coming into the week. Zalatoris is yet to hit his full stride this season after back issues last year and at 129th around the green and 136th in putting, match play is a dangerous format for him.

GROUP 10

10 Tony Finau (+150)

19 Kurt Kitayama (+300)

45 Adrian Meronk (+350)

60 Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+350)

Analysis: If it’s possible for Finau to be a sleeper, he has certainly been one lately. After missing the cut in his first event this season, he has added a victory at the Houston Open followed by seven straight top 25s without really threatening to win again. A concern this week is he’s 0-for-4 getting out of group play at Austin CC. Kitayama has shown a penchant for going hard against big name players and is riding high from his win at Bay Hill while Meronk – a recent winner of the Australian Open – is no slouch. If Bezuidenhout can activate his best short game this week he is also a sneaky hope.

GROUP 3

3 Rory McIlroy (+115)

20 Keegan Bradley (+300)

48 Denny McCarthy (+333)

52 Scott Stallings (+600)

Analysis: McIlroy needs this week. It shapes as a nice confidence booster ahead of the Masters if he dials in his best stuff. He was a winner in 2015 and semifinalist in 2016 but since has emerged from the group stages just once, in 2019 before losing to Tiger Woods. He should make short work Stallings and McCarthy although the latter is a putting genius who could frustrate McIlroy in the right circumstances. The wildcard is Bradley, who desperately wants to prove he belongs back on the Ryder Cup team later this season.

GROUP 14

14 Tyrrell Hatton (+125)

31 Russell Henley (+260)

46 Lucas Herbert (+500)

62 Ben Griffin (+400)

Analysis: An intriguing group here with good putters Henley and Herbert lying in wait to take down top seed Hatton. But the Englishman has prevailed in group play three from five times at Austin CC, with one of those misses being a playoff loss. Hatton is inside the top 10 on TOUR off the tee, on approach and also 17th in putting and as such I expect him to go deep this week – in fact, I have him making the championship match.

GROUP 6

6 Xander Schauffele (+130)

23 Tom Hoge (+275)

40 Aaron Wise (+375)

64 Cam Davis (+450)

Analysis: It shocks me to see Schauffele is 0-for-4 getting out of the group stage at Austin CC as he’s a born competitor and should thrive in this format. I’ll give him one last vote of faith this year despite being in a very tough group. First, he has big-hitting Cam Davis who finally hit some form at THE PLAYERS and then there is Aaron Wise, another young talent who could prove an outlier this week. But then there is the ultra-steady Hoge who was T3 at THE PLAYERS and who leads the TOUR in SG: Approach. Don’t be surprised if his monotonous fairways and greens rattles the three firepower players around him.

GROUP 11

11 Matt Fitzpatrick (+188)

26 Sahith Theegala (+250)

41 Min Woo Lee (+300)

61 J.J. Spaun (+375)

Analysis: The battle of young guns Theegala and Lee is a must watch match from the opening day as I believe it will decide the group. Fitzpatrick appeared out of sorts last week leaving the door open for the firebrand youth. Lee’s run at THE PLAYERS was certainly entertaining and leaves the young Aussie wanting more. He will use his beloved driving iron to steer a path around Austin CC and was a match play guru as a kid, winning the U.S. Junior Amateur. He would rank seventh on TOUR in putting if he was a member. Theegala just needs to get in play off the tee (ranks 137th) to unlock his potential.

When making your own choices remember that on average only a third of the top seeds in the group stages make it through to the final 16. In other words, going full chalk may not be the best strategy. Advancing nine top seeds from my bracket is a risky move indeed, but some are based on the strength of their group rather than the top seed themselves.

For those wondering I have a final four of Day, Homa, Rahm and Hatton, with the final set to be between Day and Hatton. But as my Golfbet colleagues note that a slight Aussie bias can creep up from time to time, it is perhaps wise for you to consider Homa making it all the way in Austin!

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