Draws and Fades: ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP

As is almost always the case, tee times for this week’s tournament were released after my Power Rankings published on Monday and before you started reading this sentence. Why do I mention it? It’s because this week’s tournament, the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP, is in Japan, which is 13 hours ahead of Eastern Time in the United States, so it begins on Wednesday night in our backyard.

RELATED: Horses for Courses, Statistically Speaking

The first threesomes off split tees are scheduled to go off at 8:50 a.m. local time on Thursday. That translates to 7:50 p.m. EDT, 4:50 p.m. PDT and 1:50 p.m. in Hawaii … on Wednesday. Adjust accordingly for all of your gaming considerations.

I’ve written it before and I’ll say it again, Segment 1 of PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf is a soft open. It’s ideal for rookie gamers because the lifting is light. The customary concern of rationing starts will emerge as a challenge later in the season, but feel free to burn your faves, and especially because you know that they’re playing now. Roster management throughout a Segment is important but holding breath for future starts can backfire for the most conservative.

Neither the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP nor THE CJ CUP at South Carolina next week includes a cut, so all 78 who start each are guaranteed four rounds. With all gamers projected to log positive numbers for every golfer in every round, fantasy scoring across your league will be flattened, so it’s a fortnight during which bonus points carry greater relative value. This reinforces investments in chalk.

As it concerns aggregate fantasy scoring thus far, the first three overall winners have totaled 442 points (Fortinet), 449 points (Sanderson Farms) and 532 points (Shriners). The first two host courses were par 72s, and TPC Summerlin is a par 71, but the average scores in relation to par were much lower in Vegas. As expected, fantasy scoring reflected it. There’s still a lesson in there, though.

Because pars are worth one point and overall fantasy scoring is much higher than it was last season, ownership philosophy should shift to investing more heavily into the chalk during lower-scoring events than in majors and on courses with muted scoring. Yes, bonus points are the same and they will continue to differentiate as designed, but they can be covered almost immediately in the wake of a bad week in an event where actual scoring is high.

The first test of the theory will occur at the Cadence Bank Houston Open in a month. Once again, Memorial Park is poised to be the hardest track of the fall.

POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD

Corey Conners (-110 for a Top 20) … As a platinum cardholder among ball-strikers, it would have been surprising if he didn’t respond to the challenge in the inaugural ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP at Narashino, but he rose to finish T6 with what was actually a balanced attack. He didn’t return last year, but this should be another launchpad for the 30-year-old after going 0-4-0 at the Presidents Cup. Given that many in the field have similar experience on the greens, he’ll need to check all of the boxes once more, but his game travels as good as anyone’s because of his credit.

DRAWS

Si Woo Kim (+100 for a Top 20) … Last week’s Wild Card is this week’s top Draw. He hasn’t missed an edition at Narashino where the better of his previous two trips was a T18 last year. He’s fresh off the T8 at TPC Summerlin that trailed an International team-best 3-1-0 at the Presidents Cup, but his history of inconsistency and withdrawing so often during tournaments always weighs down his value upon arrival. There’s no tiptoeing into him, so either you have conviction or you’re shopping elsewhere.

Matthew NeSmith (-145 for a Top 30) … In three starts, he’s already matched a career high with two top 10s in a single season. Only rookie Taylor Montgomery, who is off this week, also has as many as two. It’s a reach to expect NeSmith to continue to pile on, but he forges forward on house money, so any pressure is gone. He’s making his second start at Narashino (T48, 2021).

Cam Davis (-250 for a Top 30) … For the Shriners last week, and in this same space, I wrote, “I’m not cool, but I’m cautious.” After a Sunday fade to finish T37 in Vegas, the message is the same this week because he’s not going to tumble into a tailspin, but I still want to see what he’s made of following months of electric form that yielded a Presidents Cup appearance. There are many more reasons to be hopeful than the alternative, but this is a proper bet even in a field of only 78.

Sahith Theegala (-190 for a Top 30) … Ah, the fine line between fortune and forget. If he didn’t miss the cut at the Sanderson Farms, he’s probably in the Power Rankings, but we still need to respect the learning curve and how he balances his eagerness to play as often as he can with where it makes the most sense. That’s a word-salad kind of way to advise to lean into something special this week. He’s too good not to capitalize on the opportunity to qualify for this tournament, but he also has the receipts to shut down skeptics. Give him a chance to pay off your faith.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Hayden Buckley
Emiliano Grillo
Mark Hubbard
K.H. Lee
Aaron Rai
Scott Stallings
Adam Svensson

Odds sourced on Tuesday, October 11th at 7 p.m. ET. For live odds visit betmgm

FADES

Brendan Steele … Shared runner-up honors in his debut at Narashino last year. He did it by ranking T7 in greens hit and third in converting those chances into par breakers. It sort of came out of nowhere at the time, too, but we’d be relying on lightning striking twice this week. In the last three months, he’s just 2-for-6 and without a top 25.

C.T. Pan … The bronze medalist of the 2021 Olympics in Tokyo is making his third appearance at Narashino, and he’s still chasing his first top-55 finish in the tournament. He’s also gone five consecutive starts upon arrival without a top 65.

Keita Nakajima … The former, long-running top-ranked amateur turned pro for his title defense of the Panasonic Open Golf Championship three weeks ago. He finished T48, and then followed with a T26 in another JGTO event. He’ll be a fantasy force for us in due time but use this week’s opportunity as a fishbowl. That said, if looking to round out a DFS lineup, cast a line.

Cameron Champ
John Huh
Luke List
Peter Malnati
Chez Reavie

RETURNING TO COMPETITION

Erik van Rooyen … Finally ready to get back after it on the DP World Tour in Spain. An injured neck sidelined him at The Open Championship and he hasn’t played since. Fully exempt through this season on the PGA TOUR, the 32-year-old was projected to reward salary gamers this season assuming he returned quickly, so this early free look at his form is reason to get excited. That child No. 2 is due in December is another.

NOTABLE WDs

Aaron Wise ... It’s unlike him to bow out after the commitment deadline, but it’s not unprecedented. He opened this season with a T64 at the Shriners and has cashed in 12 of his last 13 starts. Because he advanced all the way to the TOUR Championship, he’s in the driver’s seat as it pertains to playing opportunities this season.

RECAP – SHRINERS CHILDREN'S OPEN

POWER RANKINGS
Power Ranking Golfer Result
1 Sungjae Im 7th
2 Patrick Cantlay T2
3 Tom Kim Win
4 Max Homa T20
5 Aaron Wise T64
6 Emiliano Grillo T73
7 Taylor Montgomery T15
8 Thomas Detry T69
9 Nick Hardy T44
10 Tom Hoge T4
11 Brian Harman T15
12 Taylor Pendrith T44
13 Matthew NeSmith T2
14 Harry Hall T15
15 Dean Burmester T37
Wild Card Si Woo Kim T8

SLEEPERS
Golfer (Bet, if applicable) Result
Hayden Buckley (+400 for a Top 20) T20
Russell Knox (+350 for a Top 20) MC
Taylor Moore (+225 for a Top 20) MC
Beau Hossler T64
Robby Shelton T15

GOLFBET
Bet: Rickie Fowler – Top 20 (+250)
Result: MC

BIRTHDAYS AMONG ACTIVE MEMBERS OF THE PGA TOUR

October 11 … Greg Chalmers (49)
October 12 … none
October 13 … none
October 14 … Tyrrell Hatton (31)
October 15 … Richard S. Johnson (46)
October 16 … Philip Knowles (26)
October 17 … none

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